Long Range Forecast: ‘Annihilation,’ ‘Death Wish,’ ‘Game Night,’ & ‘Red Sparrow’

Our look into 2018 continues with two weeks’ worth (February 23 and March 2) of new wide releases joining the Long Range Forecast, in addition to a handful of updates for January releases.


  • Annihilation will hope to mark the next sci-fi success from director Alex Garland (Ex Machina). The book’s fans and strong marketing will be key components to driving opening weekend, with the hope that staying power will follow. If everything fires on all cylinders, a run similar to Arrival isn’t out of the question.
  • Game Night stands as one of the best options for a sleeper comedy hit during the early part of the year, a goal that would be aided by stars Jason Bateman and Rachel McAdams.
  • Death Wish will appeal to fans of the original series as well as Bruce Willis’ own audience, potentially making it a solid counter-programmer against Red Sparrow in early March.
  • Red Sparrow‘s source material gives the film built-in awareness among fans, while star Jennifer Lawrence and director Francis Lawrence (three Hunger Games films, I Am Legend) further bolster potential for a strong adult-oriented thriller.


  • In general, buzz for these new releases is (unsurprisingly) muted at this stage despite varying degrees of star names and existing brand power. This is typical early in the year as holiday holdovers and award season candidates dominate the immediate attention of most moviegoers. Future marketing in the coming months will be crucial toward determining which ones successfully counter-program and win over adult audiences.

The 8-Week Forecast:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
1/12/2018 The Commuter $11,500,000 -4% $30,000,000 -3% 2,800 Lionsgate
1/12/2018 Paddington 2 $16,500,000 -13% $61,000,000 -13% 3,600 Warner Bros.
1/12/2018 The Post (expansion) $17,500,000 -13% $100,000,000 +11% 2,800 Fox
1/12/2018 Proud Mary $16,000,000 -6% $40,000,000 -27% 2,200 Sony / Screen Gems
1/19/2018 12 Strong $13,000,000 $42,000,000 2,300 Warner Bros.
1/19/2018 Den of Thieves $6,500,000 $13,000,000 2,100 STXfilms
1/26/2018 Maze Runner: The Death Cure $24,000,000 $65,000,000 Fox
2/2/2018 Winchester $10,000,000 $28,000,000 Lionsgate / CBS Films
2/9/2018 The 15:17 to Paris $16,000,000 $50,000,000 Warner Bros.
2/9/2018 Fifty Shades Freed $40,000,000 $100,000,000 Universal
2/9/2018 The Hurricane Heist n/a n/a Entertainment Studios
2/9/2018 Peter Rabbit $25,000,000 $103,000,000 Sony / Columbia
2/16/2018 Black Panther $90,000,000 $275,000,000 Disney
2/16/2018 Early Man $4,000,000 $20,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit
2/16/2018 Samson $3,500,000 $13,000,000 Pure Flix
2/23/2018 Annihilation $15,000,000 NEW $50,000,000 NEW Paramount
2/23/2018 Game Night $17,000,000 NEW $55,000,000 NEW Warner Bros.
2/23/2018 The War with Grandpa n/a n/a TWC / Dimension
3/2/2018 Death Wish $13,500,000 NEW $34,000,000 NEW Annapurna / MGM
3/2/2018 Red Sparrow $26,000,000 NEW $84,000,000 NEW Fox
Boxoffice Staff


  1. Avatar
    Silvia Reinisch January 05, 2018

    What do you base these forecasts on? What’s your methodology?

    • Avatar
      Boxofficeking January 05, 2018

      Just buzz and comparisons to similar movies

    • Avatar
      Ed January 08, 2018

      Not at all

  2. Avatar
    Dan. A January 05, 2018

    Given these are early forecasts and there has been little to no advertising for Red Sparrow and still is predicted to open at $26 Million. I think the Opening for Red Sparrow will be muchhh higher then predicted at the moment. So around $30-$45 Million Opening which will be great for Jennifer Lawrence after the box office disappointment (not flop) mother!

  3. Avatar
    John January 05, 2018

    That OW for The Post is laughably low. Its making a minimum of 20-25 million 3 day. Spielberg, Hanks, Streep, Oscar Buzz, reviews will cause this to overperform greatly

    • Avatar
      Bobs Yer Uncle February 21, 2018

      Hmm, BOP predicted $17.5 million and it actually did $19.3 million. I think we both know where I’m going with this right?


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