Long Range Forecast: ‘Beauty and the Beast,’ ‘The Belko Experiment,’ & ‘Free Fire’
This week, we’re slightly revamping our Long Range Forecast. Notably, the usual chart (found below) will now feature week-to-week percentage drops to more clearly track changes we’ve made on individual film forecasts. Estimated location counts will also be included for confirmed wide releases two weeks out.
All numbers are inclusive of various metrics ranging from traditional industry tracking to social media buzz, among others. As we continue aiming to improve this weekly feature, please feel free to share your feedback in the comments section below.
This week’s update sees the addition of Disney’s next hugely anticipated live-action remake: Beauty and the Beast. After what already looks to be a promising first half of the month, the weekend of March 17 is pacing to be another big one as massive interest is driving the film across a variety of moviegoers. Record trailer views, appeal to a multi-generational audience, an impressive and effective marketing campaign, and a wide open springtime market further contribute to the expectation that this could be another mammoth performer for Disney.
Not to be forgotten are A24’s Free Fire and High Top Releasing’s The Belko Experiment. Box office expectations are decidedly more modest for those two low-budget titles as they aim to counter-program the weekend’s marquee release. Early positive reviews are currently driving our confidence in Free Fire, although The Belko Experiment has received somewhat more of a marketing push thus far. It’s likely that one will cut into the other’s similar target audience, but we’re also not ruling out a change in release strategy from either of the film’s indie distributors.
Also of note: a late addition to the release schedule — Open Road’s Collide — has been added to the forecast. Currently set to open February 24, our expectations are modest for now as it debuts after the lucrative Presidents Day weekend.
As always, these and other films in the forecast will be monitored and adjusted accordingly leading up to their respective releases.
Check out our complete 8-week forecast in the table below.
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Opening||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total||% Chg from Last Week||Estimated Location Count||Distributor|
|1/27/2017||A Dog’s Purpose||$14,000,000||-28%||$44,000,000||-43%||3,000||Universal|
|1/27/2017||Gold||$5,000,000||$13,000,000||2,200||TWC / Dimension|
|1/27/2017||Resident Evil: The Final Chapter||$18,000,000||-10%||$39,000,000||-9%||3,000||Sony / Screen Gems|
|2/3/2017||The Space Between Us||$4,000,000||$11,000,000||1,800||STX Entertainment|
|2/10/2017||Fifty Shades Darker||$41,000,000||$83,000,000||Universal|
|2/10/2017||John Wick: Chapter 2||$22,500,000||13%||$50,500,000||12%||Lionsgate / Summit|
|2/10/2017||The LEGO Batman Movie||$56,000,000||$210,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|2/17/2017||A Cure for Wellness||$12,000,000||$35,000,000||Fox|
|2/17/2017||Fist Fight||$22,000,000||$63,000,000||Warner Bros. / New Line|
|2/17/2017||The Great Wall||$30,000,000||$68,000,000||Universal|
|2/24/2017||Rock Dog||$3,000,000||$8,000,000||Lionsgate / Summit Premiere|
|3/3/2017||Before I Fall||$7,000,000||$18,000,000||Open Road|
|3/3/2017||LEAP!||$6,500,000||$20,000,000||The Weinstein Company|
|3/3/2017||The Shack||$9,500,000||$34,000,000||Lionsgate / Summit|
|3/10/2017||Kong: Skull Island||$35,000,000||$100,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|3/10/2017||Trainspotting 2||n/a||n/a||Sony / TriStar|
|3/10/2017||The Wall||$7,000,000||$25,000,000||Roadside Attractions / Amazon Studios|
|3/17/2017||Beauty and the Beast (2017)||$144,000,000||NEW||$470,000,000||NEW||Disney|
|3/17/2017||The Belko Experiment||$4,000,000||NEW||$9,000,000||NEW||High Top Releasing|
Shawn Robbins and Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report.