Long Range Forecast: ‘Jason Bourne’, ‘Bad Moms’ & ‘Nerve’

The last week of July will see three new wide releases open as they each look to cap off the month in style. Lionsgate will attempt to get a head start on the weekend by opening its thriller Nerve on Wednesday, July 25. Then on Friday, July 27 Matt Damon will reprise his role of spy-master Jason Bourne in the Universal sequel of the same name while STX Entertainment will aim for a counter-programming coup with Bad Moms.

Jason Bourne (Universal)

PROS:

– The Jason Bourne franchise has grossed over $1 billion worldwide, with the last Matt Damon/Paul Greengrass entry in 2007, The Bourne Ultimatum, opening to almost $70 million and making $227 million domestically.

– Bourne‘s brand of espionage mixed with very gritty action was a model the James Bond franchise followed in recent years to huge success.

– The Bourne Legacy spin-off starring Jeremy Renner managed to open just shy of $40 million in 2012 despite not actually featuring the ever-popular Jason Bourne as a character.

– The franchise has a history of doing well with older movie-goers, with a male skew. This demographic is underrepresented by social media which leads to lower numbers than normal.  When compared with The Bourne Legacy it has more than double the tweets about its corresponding trailers.

– Matt Damon is coming off an Oscar nomination and the highest grossing worldwide film of his career in The Martian and has become one of the most bankable Hollywood action stars. This is ironic since one of the knocks against his first turn as Jason Bourne back in 2002 was that he had never been the lead in an action movie.

CONS:

– It has been a summer filled with sequels which the general audience appears to be growing tired of, this backlash could negatively affect its potential.

– Its been a long time since the last Damon/Greengrass film (2007) and perhaps the momentum they built in the original trilogy will be difficult to tap into again.

Bad Moms (STX Entertainment)

PROS:

– Early social media buzz has been strong for its trailers, especially its red band trailer.

– Female skewing R-rated comedies have a strong track record of performing well in Summer, with last year’s Trainwreck, 2010’s Bad Teacher, 2011’s Bridesmaids, 2012’s Magic Mike, 2013’s The Heat and 2014’s Tammy all being big hits. Bad Moms is a strong contender to carry on the torch.

– The film has a very strong female cast of all ages which should help to appeal to a wide cross-section of women. Mila Kunis is also no stranger to the genre, having starred in three successful R-rated comedies over the years with Forgetting Sarah MarshallFriends With Benefits and Ted.

CONS:

– STX Entertainment is a relatively new distributor who currently has a best opening of just $11.9 million (The Boy). This will be the first comedy it is distributing and its inexperience could potentially limit its opening potential.

Nerve (Lionsgate)

PROS:

– Directed by the same team that worked on Catfish which was a moderate success at the box office and an even bigger hit with critics (80 percent fresh at Rotten Tomatoes).

– The film’s clever plot uses social media (more specifically an online game) as a main driving point for the plot which is something which could play well to teens and twenty-somethings, not unlike Unfriended.

CONS:

– Social media numbers have been hard to come by for the film, especially Facebook where it is currently sitting at under 30,000 likes. Twitter is tough to accurately measure thanks to its generic name, but even with that in mind its awareness has been low. For a film which is trying to appeal to a very strong and savvy social media demographic this isn’t a good sign. Unfriended had over 300,000 likes on Facebook the same distance from release.

– Though both recognizable faces thanks to various ensemble movies (not to mention their more famous family members), Emma Roberts and Dave Franco have not proven to be viable box office draws in their own right yet.

Check out our complete long range forecast in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Jason Bourne Jul 29, 2016 Universal $65,000,000 $195,000,000
Bad Moms Jul 29, 2016 STX Entertainment $21,000,000 $70,000,000
Nerve Jul 27, 2016 Lionsgate $7,500,000 $20,000,000
Star Trek Beyond Jul 22, 2016 Paramount  $56,000,000 $159,000,000
Ice Age: Collision Course Jul 22, 2016 Fox  $39,000,000 $133,000,000
Lights Out Jul 22, 2016 Warner Bros.  $10,000,000 $25,000,000
Ghostbusters Jul 15, 2016 Sony / Columbia $63,000,000 $178,000,000
The Infiltrator Jul 13, 2016 Broad Green Pictures $6,000,000 $20,000,000
The Secret Life of Pets Jul 8, 2016 Universal $66,000,000 $265,000,000
Mike & Dave Need Wedding Dates Jul 8, 2016 Fox $15,000,000 $40,000,000
The BFG Jul 1, 2016 Disney / DreamWorks $31,000,000* $85,000,000
The Legend of Tarzan Jul 1, 2016 Warner Bros. $23,500,000* $50,000,000
The Purge: Election Year Jul 1, 2016 Universal $21,000,000* $42,000,000
The Shallows Jun 29, 2016 Sony / Columbia $11,200,000* $28,000,000
Independence Day: Resurgence Jun 24, 2016 Fox $47,000,000 $125,000,000
Free State of Jones Jun 24, 2016 STX Entertainment $14,000,000 $50,000,000
Finding Dory Jun 17, 2016 Disney $133,000,000 $449,000,000
Central Intelligence Jun 17, 2016 Warner Bros. / New Line $38,000,000 $123,000,000
The Conjuring 2 Jun 10, 2016 Warner Bros. / New Line $38,000,000 $95,000,000
Warcraft Jun 10, 2016 Universal $22,000,000 $45,000,000
Now You See Me 2 Jun 10, 2016 Lionsgate / Summit $27,000,000 $75,000,000

* indicates a prediction for a four-day holiday weekend.

Boxoffice Staff

10 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Kings of Hockeywood June 03, 2016

    You actually lowered your already preposterously low predictions for Independence Day: Resurgence? HAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Reply
    • Avatar
      dhones June 03, 2016

      people are rejecting sequels. Look at TMNT2 it’s going to make half of TMNT made.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        T-GK June 03, 2016

        ID4 2 should do at least 60-70 in my opinion, no way does it only make a paltry 125 domestically, a beloved classic movie sequal people have been wanting to see for 20 years, what does that sound like… perhaps Jurassic World? The LRF is way low on that.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          dhones June 03, 2016

          ID4 is a beloved classic? LOL

          Reply
  2. Avatar
    Michael R. Dages June 03, 2016

    I agree about ID2 being ridiculously perceived as being an automatic letdown, here or anywhere. And, additionally, why should it have to be also because Will Smith is out on this one? The preview looks promising.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    dsfasd June 03, 2016

    Bad Moms is going to bomb

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Orlando June 03, 2016

    I think you’re predicted numbers are a little low on ID: Resurgence and too high on “Finding Dory”, I think 370-420 million domestic is more realistic.

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    Tom June 07, 2016

    You’re still thinking ghost busters buzz is positive? The majority are putting down the movie twitter, facebook, instagram etc. You should lower the box office guess.

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    Don't Mind Me Now June 08, 2016

    You kinda ignored your own points there with that Bad Moms prediction. With STX distributing I can’t see that film breaching $15 million opening weekend or $45 million total.

    Considering the distance from Ultimatum and the bad reception of Legacy, Jason Bourne seems unlikely to clear $50 million on opening weekend (not that many people are nostalgic for the Bourne franchise). $130-150 million total.

    The complete and total lack of a legitimate marketing campaign means that Nerve is just getting dumped into theaters for likely contractual reasons. Given the Wednesday opening, it has the potential to break Victor Frankenstein’s worst saturated opening record if marketing doesn’t step it up. $3-4 million opening, $8-10 million total.

    Reply
  7. Avatar
    BDTrooper June 11, 2016

    I think the numbers for all the releases for June 29-July 1 look a little low, and also for ID: Resurgence. As a fan of horror, I want those films, ID, The Shallows and Purge to do well. Looks like The Conjuring 2, as you’ve predicted, is off to a nice start and should finish quite well, though a little shy of its predecessor, though nowhere near as much as so many other sequels this year.

    Reply

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