Long Range Forecast: ‘Jason Bourne’, ‘Bad Moms’ & ‘Nerve’
The last week of July will see three new wide releases open as they each look to cap off the month in style. Lionsgate will attempt to get a head start on the weekend by opening its thriller Nerve on Wednesday, July 25. Then on Friday, July 27 Matt Damon will reprise his role of spy-master Jason Bourne in the Universal sequel of the same name while STX Entertainment will aim for a counter-programming coup with Bad Moms.
Jason Bourne (Universal)
– The Jason Bourne franchise has grossed over $1 billion worldwide, with the last Matt Damon/Paul Greengrass entry in 2007, The Bourne Ultimatum, opening to almost $70 million and making $227 million domestically.
– Bourne‘s brand of espionage mixed with very gritty action was a model the James Bond franchise followed in recent years to huge success.
– The Bourne Legacy spin-off starring Jeremy Renner managed to open just shy of $40 million in 2012 despite not actually featuring the ever-popular Jason Bourne as a character.
– The franchise has a history of doing well with older movie-goers, with a male skew. This demographic is underrepresented by social media which leads to lower numbers than normal. When compared with The Bourne Legacy it has more than double the tweets about its corresponding trailers.
– Matt Damon is coming off an Oscar nomination and the highest grossing worldwide film of his career in The Martian and has become one of the most bankable Hollywood action stars. This is ironic since one of the knocks against his first turn as Jason Bourne back in 2002 was that he had never been the lead in an action movie.
– It has been a summer filled with sequels which the general audience appears to be growing tired of, this backlash could negatively affect its potential.
– Its been a long time since the last Damon/Greengrass film (2007) and perhaps the momentum they built in the original trilogy will be difficult to tap into again.
Bad Moms (STX Entertainment)
– Early social media buzz has been strong for its trailers, especially its red band trailer.
– Female skewing R-rated comedies have a strong track record of performing well in Summer, with last year’s Trainwreck, 2010’s Bad Teacher, 2011’s Bridesmaids, 2012’s Magic Mike, 2013’s The Heat and 2014’s Tammy all being big hits. Bad Moms is a strong contender to carry on the torch.
– The film has a very strong female cast of all ages which should help to appeal to a wide cross-section of women. Mila Kunis is also no stranger to the genre, having starred in three successful R-rated comedies over the years with Forgetting Sarah Marshall, Friends With Benefits and Ted.
– STX Entertainment is a relatively new distributor who currently has a best opening of just $11.9 million (The Boy). This will be the first comedy it is distributing and its inexperience could potentially limit its opening potential.
– Directed by the same team that worked on Catfish which was a moderate success at the box office and an even bigger hit with critics (80 percent fresh at Rotten Tomatoes).
– The film’s clever plot uses social media (more specifically an online game) as a main driving point for the plot which is something which could play well to teens and twenty-somethings, not unlike Unfriended.
– Social media numbers have been hard to come by for the film, especially Facebook where it is currently sitting at under 30,000 likes. Twitter is tough to accurately measure thanks to its generic name, but even with that in mind its awareness has been low. For a film which is trying to appeal to a very strong and savvy social media demographic this isn’t a good sign. Unfriended had over 300,000 likes on Facebook the same distance from release.
– Though both recognizable faces thanks to various ensemble movies (not to mention their more famous family members), Emma Roberts and Dave Franco have not proven to be viable box office draws in their own right yet.
Check out our complete long range forecast in the table below.
|Title||Release Date||Distributor||Opening Weekend||Cumulative|
|Jason Bourne||Jul 29, 2016||Universal||$65,000,000||$195,000,000|
|Bad Moms||Jul 29, 2016||STX Entertainment||$21,000,000||$70,000,000|
|Nerve||Jul 27, 2016||Lionsgate||$7,500,000||$20,000,000|
|Star Trek Beyond||Jul 22, 2016||Paramount||$56,000,000||$159,000,000|
|Ice Age: Collision Course||Jul 22, 2016||Fox||$39,000,000||$133,000,000|
|Lights Out||Jul 22, 2016||Warner Bros.||$10,000,000||$25,000,000|
|Ghostbusters||Jul 15, 2016||Sony / Columbia||$63,000,000||$178,000,000|
|The Infiltrator||Jul 13, 2016||Broad Green Pictures||$6,000,000||$20,000,000|
|The Secret Life of Pets||Jul 8, 2016||Universal||$66,000,000||$265,000,000|
|Mike & Dave Need Wedding Dates||Jul 8, 2016||Fox||$15,000,000||$40,000,000|
|The BFG||Jul 1, 2016||Disney / DreamWorks||$31,000,000*||$85,000,000|
|The Legend of Tarzan||Jul 1, 2016||Warner Bros.||$23,500,000*||$50,000,000|
|The Purge: Election Year||Jul 1, 2016||Universal||$21,000,000*||$42,000,000|
|The Shallows||Jun 29, 2016||Sony / Columbia||$11,200,000*||$28,000,000|
|Independence Day: Resurgence||Jun 24, 2016||Fox||$47,000,000||$125,000,000|
|Free State of Jones||Jun 24, 2016||STX Entertainment||$14,000,000||$50,000,000|
|Finding Dory||Jun 17, 2016||Disney||$133,000,000||$449,000,000|
|Central Intelligence||Jun 17, 2016||Warner Bros. / New Line||$38,000,000||$123,000,000|
|The Conjuring 2||Jun 10, 2016||Warner Bros. / New Line||$38,000,000||$95,000,000|
|Warcraft||Jun 10, 2016||Universal||$22,000,000||$45,000,000|
|Now You See Me 2||Jun 10, 2016||Lionsgate / Summit||$27,000,000||$75,000,000|
* indicates a prediction for a four-day holiday weekend.