Long Range Forecast: ‘Jigsaw,’ ‘Suburbicon,’ & ‘Thank You for Your Service’ Close Out October; Will ‘IT’ Hit $70M Next Weekend?
This week, we take a look at the end of October and the final weekend before holiday movie season officially begins. Currently slated to open on October 27 are Jigsaw (Lionsgate), Suburbicon (Paramount), and Thank You for Your Service (Universal).
- Jigsaw marks the eighth film in the Saw franchise, and the first since 2010. The series was a template for low-budget horror success during its prime and, with the return of Tobin Bell in the title role, could entice fans to return over pre-Halloween weekend. Social media reactions to the first glimpses of marketing have been generally par for the course.
- Suburbicon hails from director George Clooney and could be a late autumn release to keep an eye on with Matt Damon in the lead, not to mention a screenplay from the Coen brothers. Crime-comedy is a tough genre to break out in, but the counter-programming potential leading into a blockbuster-heavy November/December period could work to its advantage — especially if awards buzz catches on.
- Thank You for Your Service boasts a solid ensemble cast led by Miles Teller and Amy Schumer, among others. In addition to fans of David Finkel’s original 2013 novel, military families will be the driving audience here with Veterans Day coming up in its third week of release.
- The Saw series experienced a trend of declining box office returns for several sequels until Saw 3D ($46 million domestically) supposedly ended the series — albeit, earning far less than the franchise did at its peak with Saw 2 ($87 million). Even with a seven-year break, franchise fatigue could strike again on Jigsaw after a fall slate packed with other horror/thriller titles (namely IT, which could prove to be leggy for the genre).
- Clooney’s directorial efforts have largely appealed to 40-something-and-up adults without expanding beyond that target crowd very often in the past. So far, initial buzz for this one is more reminiscent of the Coens’ Burn After Reading than Clooney’s Monuments Men.
- Following the underwhelming run of last year’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, we’re conservative in our expectations for Thank You for Your Service at this time. The film will need to display impressive social media growth in the coming months (and/or generate strong award season buzz) if it hopes to break out in a busy market and perform on the level of last year’s Hacksaw Ridge (something we’re not ruling out by any means).
This Week’s Changes & Other Notes
- IT continues to trend in unprecedented territory for a horror release. Social media footprints — even with restrictive search strings due to the generic film title — have been noticeably stronger than The Conjuring, Annabelle, and Insidious: Chapter 2. All signs point to a true event horror film.
- Home Again remains a viable counter-programming candidate, although middling social media growth and the distributor’s limited marketing reach compared to films like The Intern and Bridget Jones’s Baby have us expecting a more modest opening with legs to follow.
- mother! is driving notable social media interest with positive growth rates on Twitter and Facebook. We’re increasing expectations for a lengthy run, but simultaneously remain concerned about its release proximity to IT.
- All I See Is You is slated to open October 27, however, Open Road tells Boxoffice that the film will only open in an estimated 250 locations. We’ll be holding off on forecasts unless a wide release is confirmed.
The Long Range Forecast:
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Opening||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total||% Chg from Last Week||Location Count||Distributor|
|9/8/2017||Home Again||$8,900,000||-26%||$33,400,000||-26%||2,800||Open Road Films|
|9/8/2017||IT||$70,000,000||17%||$175,000,000||17%||4,000||Warner Bros. / New Line|
|9/22/2017||Friend Request||n/a||n/a||Entertainment Studios|
|9/22/2017||Kingsman: The Golden Circle||$42,000,000||$107,700,000||Fox|
|9/22/2017||The LEGO Ninjago Movie||$42,500,000||$146,600,000||Warner Bros.|
|9/29/2017||Flatliners (2017)||$10,000,000||$26,000,000||Sony / Screen Gems|
|9/29/2017||A Question of Faith||n/a||n/a||Pure Flix|
|10/6/2017||Blade Runner 2049||$44,000,000||$115,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|10/6/2017||The Mountain Between Us||$8,000,000||$25,000,000||Fox|
|10/6/2017||My Little Pony (2017)||$7,500,000||$21,500,000||Lionsgate|
|10/13/2017||The Foreigner||$10,000,000||$27,700,000||STX Entertainment|
|10/13/2017||Happy Death Day||$20,000,000||$40,000,000||Universal / Blumhouse|
|10/20/2017||Only the Brave||$16,000,000||$55,000,000||Sony / Columbia|
|10/20/2017||Same Kind of Different As Me||$4,500,000||$12,000,000||Pure Flix|
|10/20/2017||Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween||$23,500,000||$59,300,000||Lionsgate|
|10/27/2017||All I See Is You||n/a||NEW||n/a||NEW||Open Road|
|10/27/2017||Thank You for Your Service||$5,000,000||NEW||$17,500,000||NEW||Universal|
Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.