Long Range Forecast: ‘Jigsaw,’ ‘Suburbicon,’ & ‘Thank You for Your Service’ Close Out October; Will ‘IT’ Hit $70M Next Weekend?

This week, we take a look at the end of October and the final weekend before holiday movie season officially begins. Currently slated to open on October 27 are Jigsaw (Lionsgate), Suburbicon (Paramount), and Thank You for Your Service (Universal).

PROS:

  • Jigsaw marks the eighth film in the Saw franchise, and the first since 2010. The series was a template for low-budget horror success during its prime and, with the return of Tobin Bell in the title role, could entice fans to return over pre-Halloween weekend. Social media reactions to the first glimpses of marketing have been generally par for the course.
  • Suburbicon hails from director George Clooney and could be a late autumn release to keep an eye on with Matt Damon in the lead, not to mention a screenplay from the Coen brothers. Crime-comedy is a tough genre to break out in, but the counter-programming potential leading into a blockbuster-heavy November/December period could work to its advantage — especially if awards buzz catches on.
  • Thank You for Your Service boasts a solid ensemble cast led by Miles Teller and Amy Schumer, among others. In addition to fans of David Finkel’s original 2013 novel, military families will be the driving audience here with Veterans Day coming up in its third week of release.

CONS:

  • The Saw series experienced a trend of declining box office returns for several sequels until Saw 3D ($46 million domestically) supposedly ended the series — albeit, earning far less than the franchise did at its peak with Saw 2 ($87 million). Even with a seven-year break, franchise fatigue could strike again on Jigsaw after a fall slate packed with other horror/thriller titles (namely IT, which could prove to be leggy for the genre).
  • Clooney’s directorial efforts have largely appealed to 40-something-and-up adults without expanding beyond that target crowd very often in the past. So far, initial buzz for this one is more reminiscent of the Coens’ Burn After Reading than Clooney’s Monuments Men.
  • Following the underwhelming run of last year’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, we’re conservative in our expectations for Thank You for Your Service at this time. The film will need to display impressive social media growth in the coming months (and/or generate strong award season buzz) if it hopes to break out in a busy market and perform on the level of last year’s Hacksaw Ridge (something we’re not ruling out by any means).

This Week’s Changes & Other Notes

  • IT continues to trend in unprecedented territory for a horror release. Social media footprints — even with restrictive search strings due to the generic film title — have been noticeably stronger than The ConjuringAnnabelle, and Insidious: Chapter 2. All signs point to a true event horror film.
  • Home Again remains a viable counter-programming candidate, although middling social media growth and the distributor’s limited marketing reach compared to films like The Intern and Bridget Jones’s Baby have us expecting a more modest opening with legs to follow.
  • mother! is driving notable social media interest with positive growth rates on Twitter and Facebook. We’re increasing expectations for a lengthy run, but simultaneously remain concerned about its release proximity to IT.
  • All I See Is You is slated to open October 27, however, Open Road tells Boxoffice that the film will only open in an estimated 250 locations. We’ll be holding off on forecasts unless a wide release is confirmed.

The Long Range Forecast:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
9/8/2017 Home Again $8,900,000 -26% $33,400,000 -26% 2,800 Open Road Films
9/8/2017 IT $70,000,000 17% $175,000,000 17% 4,000 Warner Bros. / New Line
9/15/2017 American Assassin $14,500,000 $40,000,000 2,900 Lionsgate
9/15/2017 mother! $10,500,000 $36,000,000 33% 2,800 Paramount
9/22/2017 Friend Request n/a n/a Entertainment Studios
9/22/2017 Kingsman: The Golden Circle $42,000,000 $107,700,000 Fox
9/22/2017 The LEGO Ninjago Movie $42,500,000 $146,600,000 Warner Bros.
9/29/2017 American Made $15,000,000 $50,500,000 Universal
9/29/2017 Flatliners (2017) $10,000,000 $26,000,000 Sony / Screen Gems
9/29/2017 A Question of Faith n/a n/a Pure Flix
10/6/2017 Blade Runner 2049 $44,000,000 $115,000,000 Warner Bros.
10/6/2017 The Mountain Between Us $8,000,000 $25,000,000 Fox
10/6/2017 My Little Pony (2017) $7,500,000 $21,500,000 Lionsgate
10/13/2017 The Foreigner $10,000,000 $27,700,000 STX Entertainment
10/13/2017 Happy Death Day $20,000,000 $40,000,000 Universal / Blumhouse
10/13/2017 Marshall $12,000,000 $39,000,000 Open Road
10/20/2017 Geostorm $12,000,000 $27,800,000 Warner Bros.
10/20/2017 Only the Brave $16,000,000 $55,000,000 Sony / Columbia
10/20/2017 Same Kind of Different As Me $4,500,000 $12,000,000 Pure Flix
10/20/2017 The Snowman $11,000,000 $31,000,000 Universal
10/20/2017 Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween $23,500,000 $59,300,000 Lionsgate
10/27/2017 All I See Is You n/a NEW n/a NEW Open Road
10/27/2017 Jigsaw $10,000,000 NEW $21,600,000 NEW Lionsgate
10/27/2017 Suburbicon $14,000,000 NEW $45,000,000 NEW Paramount
10/27/2017 Thank You for Your Service $5,000,000 NEW $17,500,000 NEW Universal

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Boxoffice Staff

17 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Matt D. September 01, 2017

    Love the predictions for It and American Assassin. Still think Kingsman will open to $55-(to possibly)65 M OW and finish around $150 M. Also still think Ninjago will open to $30M OW and finish around $90-95 M. If Blade Runner could open can get great reviews it could perform like The Martian in 2015. I’m hoping it opens to $50 M and holds legs over the soft October box office. Madea should be lower due to the first film’s negative reviews. Thank You For Your Service hopefully opens to $15 OW and finish around $45-50 M in total.

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Nd September 01, 2017

    So low for Flatliners I can’t believe it !!!

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Mel September 01, 2017

    I think flatliners and mother will do way more and It will probably open with 60 million…

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    John September 01, 2017

    Suburbicon and TYFYS look spot on for now. The former could do better or worse depending on reviews from Venice as well as audience reactions. The later looks like a dud due to Teller not being a draw. Jigsaw is interesting to predict as it could be this year’s Blair Witch. Still low on American Made, especially with reviews being good

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Reece September 01, 2017

      Your absolutely right, John.. Also another thing to be noted is the Coen Brothers. While they are extremely talented writers and have contributed so many gems to the world of cinema, they can sometimes put off audiences. Look at “Hail Caesar” and “The Ladykillers,” both good films but suffered from negative audience reaction. I think Suburbicon is more on-par with Hail Caeser, so I’d say it does the same as that (in terms of both box office and reviews)

      Reply
      • Avatar
        John September 01, 2017

        I think it will do a little better than Hail Caesear but still only do just all right, unless it is an awards contender

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Austin September 06, 2017

          Suburbicon has mixed reviews coming out of Venice, so that may be off-putting to some potential viewers.

          Reply
    • Avatar
      Jacen September 01, 2017

      Regarding American Made, I wonder if the success of American Assassin–a mere two weeks earlier–could negatively impact the Cruise-Liman film. Sure, one’s a thriller and the other a comedy, and the latter has a major star, but don’t underestimate the public’s ability to be confused by similarity. In this case, the titles are somewhat alike, and there is the element that both lead characters are engaged in covert ops. By the time the Cruise film opens, people might be thinking that it’s already been around for a while and opt not to see it until home video.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Anusha September 03, 2017

        “American Made” and “IT” are by far the best reviewed movies of September, i am quit sure “IT” will perform well at the box office, but i will be heartbroken if “American Made” under performs. This coming from someone who had already seen it in the UK, its really an amazing film.

        Reply
  5. Avatar
    Vicky September 03, 2017

    With all the amazing reviews and a big star like Tom Cruise if “American Made” under performs i think Hollywood will stop making any more quality Drama/Satire films, they will be relegated to TV/Netflix. It would really be a shame, i hope “American made” makes atleast a minimum of $25 Million opening weekend and total of at $75 Million Domestic.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Anu September 03, 2017

      Even though “American Made” has the look and feel of an independent Drama/Satire film it cost somewhere between $60-$80 Million to make, most of which went into shooting the large number of plane chase sequences in Columbia. For a comparison Hitman’s Bodyguard budget is $35 Million and its an action film. I think they took a huge risk in making this movie, because these type of mid budget drama films are not made in Hollywood anymore. I hope it makes at least $90 Million Domestic.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Vicky September 03, 2017

        Agreed. But I think Netflix should have made this movie, i bet everyone would love to see a great movie with 90%+ RT score featuring Tom Cruise for free on Netflix. Remember that shitty movie “War Machine” featuring Brad Pitt they made, it cost $80 Million to make and in the end it was atrocious. Netflix need to sign up Tom Cruise ASAP like Adam Sandler and make this type of amazing mid budget movies. With Disney pulling out it would be really good for them.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Anu September 03, 2017

          Great idea makes sense for Netflix business model. I can see American Made being the top viewed movie on Netflix for this year, after all they say Adam Sandler’s movies top the viewership all the time.

          Reply
        • Avatar
          John September 03, 2017

          I disagree. This seems like the kind of movie that should be seen in the theater, the way movies are supposed to be seen.

          Reply
          • Avatar
            Vicky September 04, 2017

            I understand your intentions but i don’t want a great movie like “American Made” to loose money like “Nice Guys” or “Logan Lucky”. Majority of Americans are only watching ComicBook /StarWars/Blockbuster movies in theaters these days. Its absolutely tough out there.

  6. Avatar
    Anu September 03, 2017

    Great idea makes sense for Netflix business model. I can see American Made being the top viewed movie on Netflix for this year, after all they say Adam Sandler’s movies top the viewership all the time.

    Reply
  7. Avatar
    John September 03, 2017

    Do you guys work for free? Wait, don’t answer that.

    Reply

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