Long Range Forecast: ‘Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom’ & ‘Ant-Man and the Wasp’ Updates, Early Look at ‘The Meg’

This week’s report focuses on two upcoming tentpoles, plus an early analysis for an August 10 release.

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
Opening Weekend Range: $125 – 145 million

Middling reviews from early screenings are a notable factor ahead of next week’s release, although the sequel’s social media footprint remains healthy as it outpaces Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. With over $151 million in the overseas bank so far, the sequel still has a positive global outlook ahead of it despite competition from the World Cup beginning this weekend. Still, we’re slightly lowering our domestic opening range this weekend, previously marked at $130-150 million.

Ant-Man and the Wasp
Opening Weekend Range: $65 – 85 million

First appearing on traditional tracking metrics this week, Marvel’s upcoming sequel registered interest levels slightly further behind Thor: The Dark World and Doctor Strange than previously expected. The film also comes in somewhat behind Solo: A Star Wars Story, while social media trends currently trail the first Ant-Man itself. Given the two dominant blockbusters opening ahead of it, though, there’s still plenty of time for this modestly budgeted MCU film’s buzz to build momentum.

The Meg
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 20 million

Buzz for this Jason Statham-led homage to classic B-rate flicks is strong among genre fans, although early social media buzz isn’t indicative of a breakout yet. This could over-perform as a fun escapist flick in late summer if positive reviews precede the release, but we’re conservative for now.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
6/22/2018 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom $130,000,000 $327,500,000 4,400 Universal
6/29/2018 Sicario: Day of the Soldado $14,000,000 $37,000,000 2,700 Sony / Columbia
6/29/2018 Uncle Drew $16,500,000 $45,000,000 2,200 Lionsgate / Summit
7/4/2018 The First Purge $20,000,000 $55,000,000 Universal
7/6/2018 Ant-Man and the Wasp $77,000,000 -8% $205,000,000 -9% Disney / Marvel
7/13/2018 Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation $45,000,000 $155,000,000 Sony / Columbia
7/13/2018 Skyscraper $44,000,000 $128,000,000 Universal
7/20/2018 The Equalizer 2 $20,000,000 $58,000,000 Sony / Columbia
7/20/2018 Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! $33,000,000 $105,000,000 Universal
7/20/2018 Unfriended: Dark Web n/a n/a Universal
7/27/2018 Blindspotting (Expansion) n/a n/a Lionsgate / Summit
7/27/2018 Mission: Impossible – Fallout $65,000,000 $200,000,000 Paramount
7/27/2018 Teen Titans Go! to the Movies $16,000,000 $50,000,000 Warner Bros.
8/3/2018 Disney’s Christopher Robin $30,000,000 $110,000,000 Disney
8/3/2018 The Darkest Minds $12,000,000 $38,000,000 Fox
8/3/2018 Mile 22 $13,000,000 $38,000,000 STX
8/3/2018 Searching n/a n/a Sony / Screen Gems
8/3/2018 The Spy Who Dumped Me $17,000,000 $63,000,000 Lionsgate
8/10/2018 Dog Days n/a n/a LD Entertainment
8/10/2018 The Meg $14,000,000 NEW $37,000,000 NEW Warner Bros.
Shawn Robbins

7 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Nd June 15, 2018

    What about dog days ?

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Bruce June 15, 2018

    Shark films always do well. The Meg will inevitably exceed expectations unless it is truly terrible.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jessica June 19, 2018

      Last year 47 Meters Down opened at 11m and finished with only 44m. Anything not named Jaws will be pretty flat

      Reply
  3. Avatar
    Darren James June 16, 2018

    Your “The Meg” forecast seems ridiculously low

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Federico June 17, 2018

    “8/10/2018 The Meg $37,000,000”. Are you crazy? Only 37? 🙁

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    the meg will be the biggest movie of all time June 18, 2018

    i’m gOing to predict a $257m opening for the meg because of dwight and jason statham and its a horror movie and because of a big shark. and im expecting the film to finish around $690-790m if word of mouth spreads more about the film!

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    Nd June 21, 2018

    The meg look bad , i will not be surprise if dog days do better …

    Reply

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