Long Range Forecast: ‘Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom’ & ‘Ant-Man and the Wasp’ Updates, Early Look at ‘The Meg’
This week’s report focuses on two upcoming tentpoles, plus an early analysis for an August 10 release.
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
Opening Weekend Range: $125 – 145 million
Middling reviews from early screenings are a notable factor ahead of next week’s release, although the sequel’s social media footprint remains healthy as it outpaces Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. With over $151 million in the overseas bank so far, the sequel still has a positive global outlook ahead of it despite competition from the World Cup beginning this weekend. Still, we’re slightly lowering our domestic opening range this weekend, previously marked at $130-150 million.
Ant-Man and the Wasp
Opening Weekend Range: $65 – 85 million
First appearing on traditional tracking metrics this week, Marvel’s upcoming sequel registered interest levels slightly further behind Thor: The Dark World and Doctor Strange than previously expected. The film also comes in somewhat behind Solo: A Star Wars Story, while social media trends currently trail the first Ant-Man itself. Given the two dominant blockbusters opening ahead of it, though, there’s still plenty of time for this modestly budgeted MCU film’s buzz to build momentum.
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 20 million
Buzz for this Jason Statham-led homage to classic B-rate flicks is strong among genre fans, although early social media buzz isn’t indicative of a breakout yet. This could over-perform as a fun escapist flick in late summer if positive reviews precede the release, but we’re conservative for now.
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Opening||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total||% Chg from Last Week||Estimated Location Count||Distributor|
|6/22/2018||Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom||$130,000,000||$327,500,000||4,400||Universal|
|6/29/2018||Sicario: Day of the Soldado||$14,000,000||$37,000,000||2,700||Sony / Columbia|
|6/29/2018||Uncle Drew||$16,500,000||$45,000,000||2,200||Lionsgate / Summit|
|7/4/2018||The First Purge||$20,000,000||$55,000,000||Universal|
|7/6/2018||Ant-Man and the Wasp||$77,000,000||-8%||$205,000,000||-9%||Disney / Marvel|
|7/13/2018||Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation||$45,000,000||$155,000,000||Sony / Columbia|
|7/20/2018||The Equalizer 2||$20,000,000||$58,000,000||Sony / Columbia|
|7/20/2018||Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!||$33,000,000||$105,000,000||Universal|
|7/20/2018||Unfriended: Dark Web||n/a||n/a||Universal|
|7/27/2018||Blindspotting (Expansion)||n/a||n/a||Lionsgate / Summit|
|7/27/2018||Mission: Impossible – Fallout||$65,000,000||$200,000,000||Paramount|
|7/27/2018||Teen Titans Go! to the Movies||$16,000,000||$50,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|8/3/2018||Disney’s Christopher Robin||$30,000,000||$110,000,000||Disney|
|8/3/2018||The Darkest Minds||$12,000,000||$38,000,000||Fox|
|8/3/2018||Searching||n/a||n/a||Sony / Screen Gems|
|8/3/2018||The Spy Who Dumped Me||$17,000,000||$63,000,000||Lionsgate|
|8/10/2018||Dog Days||n/a||n/a||LD Entertainment|
|8/10/2018||The Meg||$14,000,000||NEW||$37,000,000||NEW||Warner Bros.|