Long Range Forecast: ‘Kong: Skull Island,’ ‘The Wall’
On March 10, will ‘Kong’ be king? Or will ‘The Wall’ set up a fortress around its competition? It’s a battle of two blockbusters as what looks to potentially be the highest-grossing March ever truly heats up.
Kong: Skull Island (Warner Bros.)
- The blockbuster with an all-star ensemble cast of The Avengers‘ Tom Hiddleston, last year’s Oscar winner Brie Larson, Samuel L. Jackson, and John Goodman follows a team of explorers fighting to survive against the legendary monster King Kong. Though more of an “origin story” than a remake, 2005’s King Kong earned a stellar $218.0 million, or about $290.7 million adjusted for inflation. This installment takes place in the same universe as 2014’s Godzilla, which earned an impressive $200.6 million, in anticipation of 2020’s hybrid Godzilla vs. Kong.
- The marketing and trailers are playing up the action and fight scenes at the expense of any emotion, unlike the 2005 version which was much more of a “story.” Not that a plethora of violence at the expense of good characters or story usually hurts Hollywood films, but in this case it could be seen as a step down. Also, the studio is taking a big risk on first-time director Jordan Vogt-Roberts, whose only previous film was 2013’s low-budget limited release The Kings of Summer. Can he deliver the goods here?
The Wall (Roadside Attractions)
- The story of an American military sniper in a high-stakes negotiation with a terrorist from behind a flimsy brick wall stars Aaron Taylor-Johnson and John Cena, the former of whom has been breaking out at the box office lately with 2014’s Godzilla and 2015’s Avengers: Age of Ultron. Director Doug Liman has helmed such commercially successful thrillers as 2014’s Edge of Tomorrow with $100.2 million, 2005’s Mr. & Mrs. Smith with $186.3 million (about $250.2 million adjusted for inflation), and 2002’s The Bourne Identity with $121.6 million (about $180.2 million adjusted for inflation).
- The young male audience this title is aiming for will largely be lost to Kong: Skull Island and the previous weekend’s superhero holdover Logan. And some 2016’s military-themed films all did poorly at the box office: November’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk with $1.7 million despite playing in wide release, while 2016’s Whiskey Tango Foxtrot only earned $23.0 million. (Although Hacksaw Ridge did well, but that was more of a historical film than a 21st century one.) Fans of military movies are probably more likely to wait until this summer’s highly-anticipated Dunkirk directed by Christopher Nolan.
Check out the official Boxoffice Pro long range forecast in the table below.
|Title||Wide Release Date||Distributor||Opening Weekend||Cumulative|
|Kong: Skull Island||Fri, Mar 10||Warner Bros.||$40,000,000||$100,000,000|
|The Wall||Fri, Mar 10||Roadside Attractions||$7,000,000||$25,000,000|
|Logan||Fri, Mar 3||Fox||$81,000,000||$205,000,000|
|The Shack||Fri, Mar 3||Lionsgate||$9,500,000||$34,000,000|
|Leap!||Fri, Mar 3||Weinstein Company||$6,500,000||$20,000,000|
|Before I Fall||Fri, Mar 3||Focus Features||$7,000,000||$18,000,000|
|Rock Dog||Fri, Feb 24||Lionsgate||$3,000,000||$8,000,000|
|Get Out||Fri, Feb 24||Universal||$20,000,000||$56,000,000|
|The Great Wall||Fri, Feb 17||Universal||$34,000,000*||$68,000,000|
|Fist Fight||Fri, Feb 17||Warner Bros.||$25,000,000*||$63,000,000|
|A Cure For Wellness||Fri, Feb 17||Fox||$13,500,000*||$35,000,000|
|Patient Zero||Fri, Feb 17||Sony / Columbia||$8,500,000*||$19,000,000|
|Fifty Shades Darker||Fri, Feb 10||Universal||$41,000,000||$83,000,000|
|The LEGO Batman Movie||Fri, Feb 10||Warner Bros.||$56,000,000||$210,000,000|
|John Wick: Chapter Two||Fri, Feb 10||Lionsgate||$20,000,000||$45,000,000|
|Rings||Fri, Feb 3||Paramount||$14,000,000||$29,000,000|
|The Space Between Us||Fri, Feb 3||STX Entertainment||$4,000,000||$11,000,000|
|Resident Evil: The Final Chapter||Fri, Jan 27||Sony / Screen Gems||$20,000,000||$43,000,000|
|A Dog’s Purpose||Fri, Jan 27||Universal||$19,500,000||$77,000,000|
|Gold||Fri, Jan 27||Weinstein Company||$5,000,000||$13,000,000|
|xXx: The Return of Xander Gage||Fri, Jan 20||Paramount||$23,000,000||$55,000,000|
|Split||Fri, Jan 20||Universal||$22,500,000||$59,000,000|
|The Founder||Fri, Jan 20||Weinstein||$6,000,000||$19,000,000|
|The Resurrection of Gavin Stone||Fri, Jan 20||High Top Releasing||$1,400,000||$3,000,000|
*= 4-day weekend, Friday-Monday, refers to Presidents Day in February.
Shawn Robbins and Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report.