Long Range Forecast: ‘Pacific Rim: Uprising,’ ‘Sherlock Gnomes,’ & ‘Midnight Sun’

This week’s report takes a look at three wide releases currently scheduled for March 23:

PROS:

  • Pacific Rim: Uprising boasts John Boyega taking over the lead role and fresh off his newfound fame from the Star Wars franchise. Although fan favorite and recent Oscar nominee Guillermo del Toro isn’t returning to direct, Steven S. DeKnight takes the reigns following his successful work on Marvel’s Daredevil Netflix series. Early social buzz is generally positive among die hard fans of the 2013 original film.
  • Sherlock Gnomes enters a spring market largely devoid of obvious animated box office hits for families and young kids. Initial trailers are encouraging, and staying power should be expected until direct competition arrives in early summer.
  • Midnight Sun will hope to court teen date night crowds with Bella Thorne and Patrick Schwarzenegger in the lead roles.

CONS:

  • The original Pacific Rim was a modest box office player in North America, and the nearly five-year wait may prove too long for Uprising to fully capitalize on the heat from that film’s fan support. Opening in between Tomb Raider and Ready Player One will likewise cut into its target audience, but this is ultimately a sequel made more for overseas audiences, where the original film was a sizable hit — particularly in China.
  • Coming seven years after the surprise hit that was Gnomeo & Juliet, it may similarly be too late for Sherlock Gnomes to benefit from its predecessor’s success in the fullest possible way.
  • Open Road’s limited box office history has us conservative with Midnight Sun, with expectations similar to that of last year’s Before I Fall.

This Week’s Other Notes

  • As noted in our report on Thursday, traditional tracking has chimed in for the first time on Black PantherWith early surveys showing interest metrics ahead of Deadpool and other similar titles, combined with strong social media numbers and presales reports, our forecasts continue to increase for the anticipated Disney/Marvel release.
  • Unsane, also slated to open March 23, is excluded from the forecast until marketing begins and a true wide release is confirmed.

The 8-Week Forecast:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
2/2/2018 Winchester $11,500,000 $31,000,000 2,300 Lionsgate / CBS Films
2/9/2018 The 15:17 to Paris $15,000,000 $47,000,000 3,000 Warner Bros.
2/9/2018 Fifty Shades Freed $40,000,000 $100,000,000 3,700 Universal
2/9/2018 Peter Rabbit $19,000,000 $78,000,000 3,500 Sony / Columbia
2/16/2018 Black Panther $133,000,000 11% $371,000,000 11% Disney
2/16/2018 Early Man $5,000,000 25% $25,000,000 25% Lionsgate / Summit
2/16/2018 Samson $3,500,000 $13,000,000 Pure Flix
2/23/2018 Annihilation $15,000,000 $50,000,000 Paramount
2/23/2018 Every Day n/a n/a Orion
2/23/2018 Game Night $17,000,000 $55,000,000 Warner Bros.
3/2/2018 Death Wish $13,500,000 $34,000,000 Annapurna / MGM
3/2/2018 Red Sparrow $26,000,000 $84,000,000 Fox
3/9/2018 Gringo $3,000,000 $7,500,000 STXfilms
3/9/2018 The Hurricane Heist n/a n/a Entertainment Studios
3/9/2018 Strangers: Prey at Night $4,000,000 $8,500,000 Aviron
3/9/2018 A Wrinkle In Time $52,000,000 $154,000,000 Disney
3/16/2018 Love, Simon $13,000,000 $40,000,000 Fox
3/16/2018 Tomb Raider $22,000,000 $55,000,000 Warner Bros.
3/16/2018 Untitled A24 Horror n/a n/a A24
3/23/2018 Midnight Sun $6,000,000 NEW $15,000,000 NEW Open Road
3/23/2018 Pacific Rim Uprising $20,000,000 NEW $49,000,000 NEW Universal
3/23/2018 Sherlock Gnomes $12,000,000 NEW $45,000,000 NEW Paramount
3/23/2018 Unsane n/a NEW n/a NEW Bleecker Street
Boxoffice Staff

8 Comments

  1. Avatar
    TTVOMJ January 26, 2018

    you really have to label everything? “die hard ” pacific rim fans? what? …. …..

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    predator January 26, 2018

    I don’t think Pacific Rim Uprising boxoffice will be low like this, for my predictions, it will be around 30 to 45 million…and end up to be around 100 million. and for worldwide is around 400-550 million..wait and see.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Greg January 27, 2018

    My goodness, we were subjected to the Sherlock Gnomes trailer before Paddington 2. It was utterly embarassing, from the absolutely tortured set-up so that they could use the line, “No ship, Sherlock” to the old man dancing in a thong. I told my wife it looked like a movie only future juvenile delinquents could love. And, judging by the box office prediction, a good number of them will.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jacen January 27, 2018

      Yeah, it was pretty wretched. The fart joke was a particular low point–not just because it was a fart joke, but because it was a long and unfunny one. Maybe it will do well with families looking for a toddler-level diversion, but I expect it will end up with a Nut Job 2 type of gross.

      Reply
  4. Avatar
    Juan Manuel January 28, 2018

    Where are the box office predictions of Isle of Dogs? The trailer has already 7 million views on Youtube!

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Tom Stidman January 28, 2018

      They aren’t sure it’s going to be a wide release. I wouldn’t be surprised if this in around 400 theaters or less when it opens. It seems like an Adult Animation fan favorite, but not play well.

      Reply
  5. Avatar
    Pacific Sux January 29, 2018

    The numbers sound right for Pacific Rim Uprising. It will get a lot of talk from social media, but when it comes to being released in theaters, it will bomb at the box office. Plus this film will make over $500 million worldwide whereas PRU will not even make it to $50 million in the US box office alone.

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    That Guy BoxOffice.com Keeps Blocking January 29, 2018

    PACIFIC RIM: UPRISING’s performance will be largely dependent on the reception to TOMB RAIDER and READY PLAYER ONE (I don’t think A WRINKLE IN TIME will have a critical amount of audience overlap to really affect it) as well as its own reviews. The best-case scenario, where the competition gets terrible reviews/reactions while UPRISING gets at least satisfactory ones, should lead to some bigger numbers than projected here. I don’t see UPRISING topping the original PACIFIC RIM, but the first film earned a lot of passionate positive reactions and I could see a well-reviewed sequel having a strong retention rate. If UPRISING winds up being garbage, then it may not even hit $45 million total, but if it’s good or at least a good crowd-pleaser, I might project figures closer to $70-$80 million. Again, poor reviews/bad buzz for TOMB RAIDER and READY PLAYER ONE are key here, as those would allow UPRISING to become the de facto “big action film” of choice between BLACK PANTHER and RAMPAGE (or even AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR if RAMPAGE doesn’t click).

    Reply

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