Long Range Forecast: ‘Rogue One: A Star Wars Story,’ ‘Collateral Beauty’ & ‘The Space Between Us’

Six of the seven Star Wars films were the highest-grossing film of the year they came out, including last year’s The Force Awakens. Nobody doubts that December’s spinoff Rogue One will make tons of money, but will it also become the highest-grossing film of 2016 too? We’ll get our first hint on December 16 when it comes out, opening against the Warner Bros.’ drama Collateral Beauty and the STX Entertainment science fiction drama The Space Between Us.

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Disney)

PROS:

  • Star Wars. Enough said.
  • Darth Vader. Enough said.
  • But just to say more anyway… this film takes place during the roughly 25-year period between the prequel trilogy and the “original” trilogy. Darth Vader is still alive, the Death Star is being constructed, Luke and Han and Leia aren’t in the picture yet, and a small rebel force is attempting to take down the Empire. With the most financially successful franchise in movie history behind it, Rogue One should be a lock for big dollars.

CONS:

  • Will audiences come out to see a one-time spinoff the way they did for all seven of the “in sequence” films? The characters in this one are basically entirely new. The Force Awakens found box office success mixed new characters with the existing Han and Leia and Luke, while the prequel trilogy did too by showing younger versions of beloved characters like Obi-Wan Kenobi. Except for brief glimpses of Darth Vader seen in the trailer, that familiarity won’t be present for this installment.

Collateral Beauty (Warner Bros.)

PROS:

  • An all-star cast includes Will Smith, Kate Winslet, Keira Knightley, Edward Norton, and Helen Mirren. All have been nominated for at least one Oscar (if not actually winning one in Winslet’s and Mirren’s cases), and all have a history of at least some box office success. Smith’s most recent film was the smash Suicide Squad with $323.7 million to date.
  • The story of a depressed advertising executive who discovers meaning in his life could be a perfect fit for the holiday season, a la It’s a Wonderful Life.

CONS:

  • Smith’s previous December drama release Concussion last year wasn’t a big box office hit, with a $10.5 million opening and $34.5 million total gross, despite being about football — by far the most popular sport in the U.S.
  • Going up against Rogue One in its debut will be a tough competition, perhaps the single toughest competition of the year.

The Space Between Us (STX Entertainment)

PROS:

  • This sci-fi drama about the first human born and raised on Mars who moves to Earth as a teenager stars Asa Butterfield, who’s coming off a decently-sized box office hit as the lead of September’s Miss Peregrine’s Home For Peculiar Children.
  • The release date for Space was moved from August to mid-December, officially to give the studio more time to perfect the special effects, but likely to position it as a dark-horse awards contender too. Though current projections for awards nominations don’t list it highly, if it unexpectedly breaks out that could help its word of mouth.

CONS:

  • Last year, two films opened against The Force Awakens: the comedy Sisters and the family largely-animated film Alvin and the Chipmunks: Road Chip. Both of those opened decently given what they were up against, but both were also in differing genres. By contrast, Space is a sci-fi drama viewable by anybody age 5 to 105, just like Rogue One. Combine that with yet another sci-fi drama opening the following week, Passengers, and Space might likely end up third out of three among those films at the box office.

Check out the official Boxoffice Pro long range forecast in the table below. Shawn Robbins and Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story Dec 16, 2016 Disney $135,000,000 $405,000,000
Collateral Beauty Dec 16, 2016 Warner Bros. $13,000,000 $75,000,000
The Space Between Us Dec 16, 2016 STX Entertainment $8,000,000 $45,000,000
Office Christmas Party Dec 9, 2016 Paramount $17,000,000 $70,000,000
Miss Sloane Dec 9, 2016 EuropaCorp $8,000,000 $26,000,000
Kidnap Dec 2, 2016 Relativity Media $7,000,000 $19,000,000
Incarnate Dec 2, 2016 High Top Releasing $4,500,000 $9,000,000
Moana Nov 23, 2016 Disney $65,000,000 $285,000,000
Allied Nov 23, 2016 Paramount $14,000,000 $68,000,000
Bad Santa 2 Nov 23, 2016 Broad Green Pictures $10,000,000 $34,000,000
Rules Don’t Apply Nov 23, 2016 Fox $5,000,000 $19,000,000
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them Nov 18, 2016 Warner Bros. $78,000,000 $210,000,000
The Edge of Seventeen Nov 18, 2016 STX Entertainment $13,000,000 $58,000,000
Bleed For This Nov 18, 2016 Open Road Films $6,500,000 $18,000,000
Friend Request Nov 18, 2016 Freestyle Releasing $2,500,000 $5,000,000
Arrival Nov 11, 2016 Paramount $27,000,000 $95,000,000
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk Nov 11, 2016 Sony / TriStar $18,000,000 $75,000,000
Almost Christmas Nov 11, 2016 Universal $16,500,000 $46,000,000
Shut In Nov 11, 2016 EuropaCorp $5,500,000 $13,000,000
Doctor Strange Nov 4, 2016 Disney $88,000,000 $255,000,000
Trolls Nov 4, 2016 Fox / Dreamworks $23,000,000 $81,000,000
Hacksaw Ridge Nov 4, 2016 Lionsgate $8,000,000 $28,000,000
Inferno Oct 28, 2016 Sony $30,000,000 $85,000,000
Boxoffice Staff

9 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Jonathan B. October 21, 2016

    I think the Rogue One predictions are fairly low. I don’t want to say drastically low, but any lower wouldn’t be realistic, so it wouldn’t be unfair to call them on the very low side. Rogue One — in December — is barely going to beat Deadpool’s opening…? An unknown, R-rated comic book movie that snuck up on most people? I mean, you can’t be serious. I think $150M is the floor for opening weekend and $165M to $175M a lot more likely. As you said, this is Star Wars. I really thought after TFA obliterated predictions everywhere and drowned the skeptics’ projections, we wouldn’t be dealing with the same thing just a year later. OW: $165M, cumulative: $575M. There’s no chance Rogue One doesn’t beat Finding Dory.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jonathan L. Bowen January 19, 2017

      I just came back to say I’m glad we have an expert site to provide expert analysis, and that my services are for hire if you’re looking to make better future predictions. As I said, $135M OW and $405M final? Looks like $155M OW and final will hit between $535M and $545M. I had a 3.4848 multiple from OW to final and that should be almost exact, by the way. My OW was $10M higher than actual, but I would say I came about as close as humanly possible to nailing it. Better luck next time?

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    Reece October 22, 2016

    next week put a prediction for La La Land in somewhere!

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Stevenson October 23, 2016

      La La Land should gross $100 mil plus overall with strong holds throughout the weeks. If not than screw America. It’s a fantastic film that should have amazing word of mouth everywhere.

      Reply
  3. Avatar
    Mark October 23, 2016

    I do believe Helen Mirren won an Oscar for The Queen

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Don't Mind Me Mow October 27, 2016

      I believe the article is saying Winslet and Mirren are the two that DID win (with a confusing use of negatives), since I don’t think Norton, Smith or Knightley have ever won.

      Reply
  4. Avatar
    Don't Mind Me Now October 23, 2016

    The only way I see Rogue One making less than $450 million is if it’s terrible and gets terrible word-of-mouth. Otherwise, it’s got a damn good shot a topping Finding Dory for #1 of the year (and selling more tickets than Attack of the Clones in the process). The film has been tracking really well all over social media, but it’s one of the few where the excitement appears to be crossing into the offline world. Much more so than Fantastic Beasts, Rogue One is generating huge hype, and holiday legs should help it soar.

    Collateral Beauty appears to be suffering from its “Oscar-baity” premise. Ten years ago, Will Smith’s presence would have been enough to make this a smash, but these days his power has diminished. Outside of an ensemble comic book hit (Suicide Squad), his only relative success of late was Focus, where he was playing a much more “Will Smith-y” character than he seems to be here. The title is rather chortle-worthy, especially with Naomie Harris’s delivery in the trailer, and overall there’s a tackiness to the whole affair that will likely push audiences away. This prediction seems accurate.

    As for The Space Between Us, it’s possible the film doesn’t make that $8 million in its entire run. While STX just had their first breakout, their overall record is spotty, and pitting a space-themed romantic drama head to head with Rogue One and Passengers looks like an admission of a lack of confidence. Passengers, in particular, will suck the air away from this film – when picking their space romance for the holidays (odd sentence) what teens would choose what’s-his-face from Miss Peregrine and the girl from Tomorrowland over two of the hottest stars in the world (who are particularly popular with the teen demographic)? Incredibly few, and so, unless this film is shockingly better than it looks (doubtful, considering that the original trailer appeared to show the entire movie point by point) most of the film’s business will be spillover business from sold-out Rogue One shows during opening weekend. So if the film is secretly great, they should start doing press screenings right now – otherwise, this is looking at a >$15 million finish.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Don't Mind Me Now October 23, 2016

      *<$15 million finish

      Reply
  5. Avatar
    Jeff Wickson October 24, 2016

    I see Rogue One getting a 145 million Domestic opening weekend, with a little over 500 million domestic total….with a World Wide of 1.25 billion. I am curious as to how well it does in China, it could do better than the Force Awakens perhaps with how Rogue One is cast.

    Reply

Leave reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *