Long Range Forecast: ‘Smurfs: The Lost Village,’ ‘Going In Style,’ ‘The Case for Christ,’ ‘Sleight,’ & ‘Wonder’
Forecasts in this article represent expectations based on current buzz as measured by various tracking metrics and should not be treated as final predictions for any film.
This week’s edition of our Long Range Forecast takes an early look at the weekend of April 7, 2017, a frame currently slated to see the wide release of five new films.
The top debut for this weekend should end up being Smurfs: The Lost Village. The franchise experienced a downturn with the 2013 sequel netting half of its predecessor’s domestic box office, but Sony’s move to an all-animation film in Lost Village could be a welcome change for parents with young children. The film will open just one week after The Boss Baby, meaning both will cut into each other’s primary audience, but that should translate to longer staying power for both with April 21’s LEAP! marking the only animated release between this weekend and June 2’s Captain Underpants.
Zach Braff’s remake of Going In Style could be a dark horse thanks to its ensemble cast led by Morgan Freeman, Michael Caine, and Alan Arkin. Warner Bros. will be catering to the older audience that helped make Last Vegas and the Red films successful. Again, legs will be the name of the game for this kind of movie.
The other three openers will be The Case for Christ, Sleight, and Wonder. The former of the three could be a sleeper to watch for if Good Friday and Easter Weekend (April 14-16) help spur faith-based audiences to turn out for the release. The second, Sleight, is being pitched as a Chronicle-like film appealing to teens, but we’re cautious in expectations at this stage with modest social media buzz so far and The Fate of the Furious opening one week later. Meanwhile, Wonder hasn’t begun significant marketing at this stage and will likely remain a low-profile release.
Check out our complete forecast for these and other upcoming films in the table below.
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Opening||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total||% Chg from Last Week||Location Count||Distributor|
|2/17/2017||A Cure for Wellness||$7,500,000||-6%||$19,500,000||-7%||2,700||Fox|
|2/17/2017||Fist Fight||$20,000,000||-9%||$57,000,000||-10%||3,000||Warner Bros. / New Line|
|2/17/2017||The Great Wall||$17,000,000||-11%||$43,000,000||-12%||3,200||Universal|
|2/24/2017||Rock Dog||$3,000,000||$7,000,000||2,500||Lionsgate / Summit Premiere|
|3/3/2017||Before I Fall||$7,000,000||$18,000,000||Open Road|
|3/3/2017||The Shack||$6,000,000||-37%||$22,000,000||-35%||Lionsgate / Summit|
|3/10/2017||Kong: Skull Island||$35,000,000||$100,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|3/10/2017||T2: Trainspotting||n/a||n/a||Sony / TriStar|
|3/17/2017||Beauty and the Beast (2017)||$144,000,000||$470,000,000||Disney|
|3/17/2017||The Belko Experiment||$7,000,000||$16,000,000||High Top Releasing|
|3/24/2017||Life (2017)||$15,000,000||$50,000,000||19%||Sony / Columbia|
|3/31/2017||The Boss Baby||$24,000,000||$83,000,000||Fox / DreamWorks Animation|
|3/31/2017||Ghost in the Shell (2017)||$40,000,000||$105,000,000||Paramount / DreamWorks|
|3/31/2017||Step Sisters||n/a||n/a||Broad Green Pictures|
|3/31/2017||The Zookeeper’s Wife||$5,000,000||$19,000,000||Focus Features|
|4/7/2017||The Case for Christ||$3,500,000||NEW||$14,000,000||NEW||Pure Flix|
|4/7/2017||Going In Style (2017)||$12,500,000||NEW||$49,000,000||NEW||Warner Bros. / New Line|
|4/7/2017||Sleight||$5,000,000||NEW||$11,000,000||NEW||High Top Releasing|
|4/7/2017||Smurfs: The Lost Village||$21,500,000||NEW||$78,500,000||NEW||Sony / Columbia|
Shawn Robbins, Alex Edghill, and Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report.