Long Range Forecast: Will ‘Spider-Man: Homecoming’ Benefit from the Marvel Bump?
The next chapter in the Marvel Cinematic Universe represents this week’s addition to the Long Range Forecast. Spider-Man: Homecoming, slated for release on July 7, is quite unique as the first MCU production to be released completely outside the Disney banner since 2011. Our initial analysis and forecast:
Sony / Columbia / Marvel Studios
- Years before the Marvel Cinematic Universe existed, the Spider-Man franchise was putting up record-breaking box office performances at the beginning of the modern era for comic book adaptations. Of course, this is largely attributed to the fact that the character has long been established as one of the most popular and beloved in the entire genre for generations. Sam Raimi’s original trilogy translated that reputation to the tune of more than $1.1 billion in domestic box office grosses across his three films in 2002, 2004, and 2007 — including two (then) record opening weekends for the first and third films.
- Tom Holland’s introduction as Peter Parker / Spider-Man in last year’s Captain America: Civil War was widely praised by both fans and critics. Combined with Marvel’s (wise) decision to not retell the character’s specific origin story, Holland’s age-appropriate casting as the high school version of the character could drive strong appeal among teens and young adults.
- Initial buzz following the film’s trailers has been very strong. Twitter activity is significantly ahead of The Amazing Spider-Man 2 at the same point before release, while the franchise’s official Facebook page boasts a massive 20.4 million fans (and counting) as of this writing.
- A key factor working against the two Amazing Spider-Man films in 2012 and 2014 was an attempt to “Nolan-ize” the franchise — in other words, making it “darker” (for lack of a more accurate essay about what that misnomer of a description really entails) both in storytelling tone and visual atmosphere, ala the Dark Knight trilogy. That strategy worked for Batman because Christopher Nolan’s cerebral approach to the character suited the core storytelling. With Spider-Man, the return to a more light-hearted, coming-of-age superhero drama recalls some of the ingredients that made Raimi’s first two films work on so many levels with a character that isn’t so world-weary.
- Bringing in Robert Downey, Jr.’s Tony Stark / Iron Man to help christen the first official Spider-Man movie in the MCU should provide an additional point of interest for adults and older fans. The same can be said — albeit on a more minor level — for Michael Keaton’s casting as the main antagonist.
- Given that this is technically the sixth Spider-Man film in fifteen years — more importantly, the second “reboot” — some level of audience fatigue toward the character wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect. A strong film with positive reviews could help curb some of that natural downside given the interest surrounding the film taking place within the actual MCU, a missing element lamented by many fans old and young when it came to the two Amazing Spider-Man films.
- As the third tentpole comic book film to open within two months’ time, audience demand to return to the genre won’t exactly be at its peak.
- This July’s release slate is intriguingly geared toward adult audiences with tentpole films War for the Planet of the Apes and Dunkirk opening in the middle of the month. That means word of mouth and repeat viewings among younger crowds will be particularly important when it comes to Spider-Man‘s long-term success.
This Week’s Changes & Other Notes
- Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul remains in flux as it drags across social media but shows mixed signals in traditional tracking. An opening somewhere between the performance of its predecessor, Dog Days, and last year’s tween flick Middle School remains likely.
- Due to Paramount’s shift to a Wednesday release, our projections for Transformers: The Last Knight have been updated.
Check out our 8-week forecast in the table below.
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Opening||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total||% Chg from Last Week||Location Count||Distributor|
|5/19/2017||Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul||$8,500,000||42%||$29,200,000||42%||2,900||Fox|
|5/19/2017||Everything, Everything||$11,000,000||$33,650,000||2,600||Warner Bros.|
|5/26/2017||Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales||$68,000,000*
|6/2/2017||Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie||$28,000,000||$93,500,000||Fox / DreamWorks Animation|
|6/2/2017||Wonder Woman||$83,000,000||$225,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|6/9/2017||It Comes At Night||$12,000,000||$39,000,000||A24|
|6/9/2017||Megan Leavey||n/a||NEW||n/a||NEW||Bleecker Street|
|6/9/2017||The Mummy (2017)||$50,000,000||$143,000,000||Universal|
|6/16/2017||47 Meters Down||n/a||n/a||Entertainment Studios|
|6/16/2017||All Eyez On Me||$18,000,000||$49,000,000||Lionsgate / Summit|
|6/16/2017||Cars 3||$49,000,000||$180,000,000||Disney / Pixar|
|6/21/2017||Transformers: The Last Knight||$70,000,000||-11%||$205,000,000||5%||Paramount|
|6/28/2017||Baby Driver||$15,000,000||$50,000,000||Sony / TriStar|
|6/30/2017||Amityville: The Awakening||$8,500,000||$18,000,000||TWC / Dimension|
|6/30/2017||Despicable Me 3||$75,000,000||$270,000,000||Universal / Illumination|
|6/30/2017||The House (2017)||$28,000,000||$126,000,000||Warner Bros. / New Line|
|7/7/2017||Spider-Man: Homecoming||$135,000,000||NEW||$325,000,000||NEW||Sony / Columbia|
* = 3-day weekend (Friday-Sunday)
** = 4-day weekend (Friday-Monday)
Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.