Long Range Forecast: Will Tom Cruise Lead ‘The Mummy’ Reboot to Summer Success?
This week’s edition of the Long Range Forecast greets Universal’s latest remake of The Mummy, starring Tom Cruise, Sofia Boutella, and Russell Crowe. The film opens June 9.
- Tom Cruise has proven his capability toremain a major drawing force at the global box office with the last two Mission: Impossible films, plus the excellent word of mouth and staying power exhibited by 2014’s Edge of Tomorrow. He could help reel in adult audiences otherwise unsure about their interest in another remake of this franchise.
- Social media activity is solid so far, boasting much stronger activity on Facebook and Twitter at the same point before release than did The Legend of Tarzan last year.
- With Transformers: The Last Knight serving as its biggest direct competition until July (and not opening until Mummy‘s third weekend), this film has some breathing room to help build out staying power if audiences respond positively.
- It remains to be seen whether audiences are truly excited about the studio’s planned monster cinematic universe (dubbed “Universal Monsters”) — but this seems as good a way as any to kick it off.
- The adult audience Cruise will be gunning to attract is the same one that drove Stephen Sommers’ first two Mummy films, starring Brendan Fraser, to huge success in 1999 and 2001. This remake will need to deliver something unique — in addition to Cruise — in order for it to stand out among that crowd.
- While Cruise’s box office power remains healthy (especially overseas), he has nonetheless delivered modest results outside of the Mission franchise recently. Examples: Oblivion and Edge of Tomorrow‘s own lukewarm domestic opening weekend (which was mitigated by its strong staying power).
- The success of Wonder Woman could be a factor here. If that film hits in a big way the weekend before, particularly after a month of May filled with action films, audiences may be ready for a brief mid-summer reprieve from special effects extravaganzas.
This Week’s Other Changes & Notes
- Tracking and social media activity for The Circle continue to inspire cautious expectations.
- The move of Baywatch to a Thursday release before Memorial Day is likely a means of avoiding head-to-head competition on opening day with Pirates of the Caribbean. Still, our long-term outlook for the R-rated comedy continues to improve bit by bit.
- A24’s It Comes at Night has been excluded from our public forecast for the time being. Although it’s also slated to open wide on June 9, the distributor’s limited history of wide releases suggest plans could change on that end. That said, we have growing confidence in the film’s potential to be a mid-summer horror sleeper.
Check out our 8-week forecast in the table below.
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Opening||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total||% Chg from Last Week||Location Count||Distributor|
|4/21/2017||Born in China||$5,000,000||$17,300,000||1,500||Disneynature|
|4/21/2017||Phoenix Forgotten||n/a||n/a||1,500||Cinelou Films|
|4/21/2017||The Promise||$2,250,000||$4,500,000||2,000||Open Road Films|
|4/28/2017||The Circle||$10,000,000||-23%||$30,000,000||-25%||2,800||STX Entertainment|
|4/28/2017||How to Be a Latin Lover||$6,500,000||$23,000,000||1,000||Lionsgate|
|5/5/2017||Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2||$160,000,000||$400,000,000||Disney|
|5/12/2017||King Arthur: Legend of the Sword||$23,000,000||$67,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|5/19/2017||Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul||$10,000,000||$32,000,000||Fox|
|5/19/2017||Everything, Everything||$8,500,000||$26,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|5/26/2017||Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales||$61,000,000
|6/2/2017||Captain Underpants||$24,000,000||$80,000,000||Fox / DreamWorks Animation|
|6/2/2017||Wonder Woman||$83,000,000||$225,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|6/9/2017||It Comes At Night||n/a||NEW||n/a||NEW||A24|
|6/9/2017||The Mummy (2017)||$50,000,000||NEW||$143,000,000||NEW||Universal|
Shawn Robbins, Alex Edghill, and Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report.