Long Range Forecast: ‘Tomb Raider’ & ‘Love, Simon’

This week’s Long Range Forecast welcomes the addition of two wide releases scheduled for March 16. Our early analysis and forecasts:

PROS:

  • Tomb Raider marks the third big screen treatment for the video game property and essentially serves as a reboot of the cinematic side of the franchise made famous by Angelina Jolie. Recasting with Oscar winner Alicia Vikander has fans optimistic, and the rise of female-driven action films could be a boon to a success here if reception is strong.
  • Love, Simon will court teen and young adult crowds, anchored by fans of Becky Albertalli’s novel, Simon vs. the Homo Sapiens Agenda. The film’s strong messages could resonate with a variety of youthful moviegoers, making this a sleeper candidate to watch out for.

CONS:

  • Initial social media buzz for Tomb Raider is modest at this stage (falling more in line with the likes of Atomic Blonde and the Resident Evil franchise), while the recent history of video game adaptations points to conservative box office expectations.
  • With the recent breakout of Wonder being an exception, the proliferation of young adult-targeted book adaptations has led to some burnout in the genre, as seen by the likes of modest (but still very profitable) performers like Everything, Everything and Paper Towns. That said, it’s far too early to write anything in stone for Love, Simon.

The 8-Week Forecast:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
1/26/2018 Maze Runner: The Death Cure $23,000,000 -4% $59,000,000 -9% 3,800 Fox
2/2/2018 Winchester $11,500,000 +15% $31,000,000 +11% 2,800 Lionsgate / CBS Films
2/9/2018 The 15:17 to Paris $15,000,000 -6% $47,000,000 -6% Warner Bros.
2/9/2018 Fifty Shades Freed $40,000,000 $100,000,000 Universal
2/9/2018 Peter Rabbit $19,000,000 $78,000,000 Sony / Columbia
2/16/2018 Black Panther $120,000,000 $335,000,000 Disney
2/16/2018 Early Man $4,000,000 $20,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit
2/16/2018 Samson $3,500,000 $13,000,000 Pure Flix
2/23/2018 Annihilation $15,000,000 $50,000,000 Paramount
2/23/2018 Every Day n/a n/a Orion
2/23/2018 Game Night $17,000,000 $55,000,000 Warner Bros.
2/23/2018 The War with Grandpa n/a n/a TWC / Dimension
3/2/2018 Death Wish $13,500,000 $34,000,000 Annapurna / MGM
3/2/2018 Red Sparrow $26,000,000 $84,000,000 Fox
3/9/2018 Gringo $3,000,000 $7,500,000 STXfilms
3/9/2018 The Hurricane Heist n/a n/a Entertainment Studios
3/9/2018 Strangers: Prey at Night $4,000,000 $8,500,000 Aviron
3/9/2018 The Upside n/a n/a The Weinstein Company
3/9/2018 A Wrinkle In Time $52,000,000 $154,000,000 Disney
3/16/2018 Love, Simon $13,000,000 NEW $40,000,000 NEW Fox
3/16/2018 Tomb Raider $22,000,000 NEW $55,000,000 NEW Warner Bros.
Shawn Robbins

13 Comments

  1. Avatar
    DangerS January 19, 2018

    Black Panther will likely have better legs. $120M three day opening could get it at over $350M total.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Orlando January 19, 2018

      I agree, I think it has a good chance of displaying great legs for a strong run. Right now i’m thinking it opens around $120-$130 myself, but I have a feeling that if “Black Panther” has great reviews than opening with as much $140-$160 million might not be out of the question, especially with a 4-day Presidents holiday weekend. And if that does happen than I could even see it reaching and possibly even topping $400 million domestic during it’s box office run.

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    Dakota January 19, 2018

    The Death Cure will likely do better on 3 day opening. Im guessing around $27,000,000.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    J January 19, 2018

    Really? You lowered the death cure? We’ll see…

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    456! January 19, 2018

    I was thinking Tomb Raider would make $18 million for the weekend and overall $60million.

    The trailers looks weak, and Vikander doesn’t have the attitude or presence.

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    John Johnson January 21, 2018

    Too low for Tomb Raider in my opinion. Also what about the Christian film I Can Only Imagine? It also opens 3/16 and the 1st trailer has over 40 million views on Facebook, while the second one has over 18 million views.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      gaj February 09, 2018

      movie theatre tickets are $9 a piece so you only need half to see it. 9 x 9,000,000 = 81million. wow a lot right.

      Reply
  6. Avatar
    Malik A. January 21, 2018

    Man, March looks like garbage when compared to last year. Last year had Beauty and the Beast, Logan, and Kong: Skull Island. Nothing in March 2018 will even come close to those mega hits.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin January 26, 2018

      Definitely.
      One of the big players in March (Alpha) moved from that first weekend in March to mid-September.
      Combine that with the giant possibility that A Wrinkle in Time may actually be the highest opening March 2018 ever will have, and then compare the whole March 2018 release slate to a slate of 4 movies last year on the same month that scored an opening $50 million or higher. Now, we’re looking to have a repeat of March 2016.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        gaj February 09, 2018

        note. Zootopia dominated for three weeks and became a box office phenomenon.

        Reply
  7. Avatar
    CH.JE.LU January 31, 2018

    BOX OFFICE KEEP IT UP

    Reply
  8. Avatar
    SR January 31, 2018

    Black Panther won’t leg a 3x. Tomb Raider you need to go for the over 25s for the money.
    I agree how weak it March looks. But…. a month without some sort of super hero movie. Refreshing change to give others a chance

    Reply
  9. Avatar
    gaj February 09, 2018

    B.S Tomb Raider will make more than 22million opening and it has a really good chance of being good. if it is bad, I will say 33million opening and 70million in total. both tomb raider movies have made a lot of money, the reboot will likely do to. if it is ok, then 44million opening and 100million total. and if it is good, then we are in for a wild ride. it will likely hit 55-70million opening and get around 130-160million opening with this block buster. if it is a surprise hit like JW, then around 80-90million and at least a 250 million total. If advertisement is every where for it, it will likely have a big rise of up to 20-45million. the highest it could get is up to 300million which seems impossible, but it could happen. we will see what happens. I just don’t agree that numbers for a movie like that would be low. The reason pirates5 and transfromers 5 failed were because people had had enough of that crapa, this may be different. it wont be bad at the box office.

    Reply

Leave reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *