Long Range Tracking: ‘Action Point,’ ‘Adrift,’ & Updates on ‘Avengers: Infinity War’

This week’s report takes an early look at the first weekend of June 2018, currently set for the wide release of Johnny Knoxville’s Action Point and the romance-survival drama Adrift, starring Shailene Woodley and Sam Claflin.

Fans of Jackass and Bad Grandpa will be the target crowd for Knoxville’s return to the big screen in Action Point, with the recent trailer generating fairly positive reception online. If Paramount successfully plays up the fact that the movie’s stunts are genuine (ala the Jackass franchise), and if positive reviews follow, this could be a release to keep an eye on.

Counter-programming with a focus on mostly female audiences, Adrift could attract young adult date night crowds that helped make previous summer titles like The Shallows and 47 Meters Down successful. Social media growth thus far is modest, but that’s to be expected this far out from release.

This Week’s Key Updates

  • Rampage is looking stronger as next week’s opening approaches. The film is making significant gains across all tracking metrics as Dwayne Johnson’s star power remains the key to interest levels now lining up with comparable titles such as Oblivion and The Legend of Tarzan.

Avengers: Infinity War Tracking

  • Avengers: Infinity War continues to outpace all films in the superhero genre. Traditional industry tracking released this week backed up our own previous tracking reports indicating that the film should have little trouble cracking $200 million in its first weekend, although Disney and rival outlets are both projecting more conservatively than our current forecast models suggest. Robust marketing, interest, social media footprints, and pre-sale activity further underscore increasing expectations.

At this time, Boxoffice tracking ranges for the next Marvel tentpole are:

Domestic Opening Weekend: $219 million – $240 million
Domestic Total Gross: $550 million – $615 million

Current pinpoint forecasts are listed in the table below and will be updated as necessary in the weeks ahead.

8-Week Tracking:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
4/13/2018 Rampage $37,000,000 19% $85,000,000 18% 3,950 Warner Bros. / New Line
4/13/2018 Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero n/a n/a n/a Fun Academy
4/13/2018 Truth or Dare $14,000,000 -7% $28,000,000 -7% 3,000 Universal
4/20/2018 I Feel Pretty $17,000,000 -15% $57,000,000 -15% 3,200 STXfilms
4/20/2018 Super Troopers 2 $5,000,000 $9,000,000 2,200 Fox Searchlight
4/20/2018 Traffik $3,500,000 $8,750,000 1,500 Lionsgate / Summit
4/27/2018 Avengers: Infinity War $225,000,000 5% $586,000,000 9% Disney
5/4/2018 Bad Samaritan n/a n/a Electric Entertainment
5/4/2018 Overboard $14,000,000 $39,000,000 Lionsgate / Pantelion
5/4/2018 Tully n/a n/a Focus Features
5/11/2018 Breaking In $14,000,000 $37,500,000 Universal
5/11/2018 Life of the Party $21,000,000 $54,000,000 Warner Bros. / New Line
5/18/2018 Book Club $6,000,000 $19,000,000 Paramount
5/18/2018 Deadpool 2 $100,000,000 $242,000,000 Fox
5/18/2018 Show Dogs $8,000,000 $25,000,000 Open Road
5/25/2018 Solo: A Star Wars Story $150,000,000 $390,000,000 Disney
6/1/2018 Action Point $17,000,000 NEW $42,500,000 NEW Paramount
6/1/2018 Adrift $10,000,000 NEW $34,000,000 NEW STXfilms
Shawn Robbins

13 Comments

  1. Avatar
    DangerS April 06, 2018

    I don’t think Infinity War will be that leggy so maybe you should increase your OW projection to something around $240M.

    I still think it will do more than that.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Prad April 09, 2018

      It has free run for three week, similar to the first avengers and I think it will open at around 230-240 mil, so even a 2.7x multiplier will take it to 630+ millions. But I think it will do even better with about 700 mil domestic.

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    KN April 06, 2018

    I’m really surprised if Solo opens that high, I think both Deadpool 2 and Solo will open around 120 and domestic total around 300. After BP IW total below 600 is disappointment.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Fred April 06, 2018

      Black Panther is setting a very high new bar domestically, it could very well end up reach $700 million domestic. While I don’t think Infinity War will likely be able to reach that total, I do agree with you that if IW makes under $600m domestic it will be seen as a bit of a disappointment in comparison to what BP is doing. I think if IW can reach $600m domestic and $1.5-$1,8b worldwide it will be considered a true success.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Nunya Business April 09, 2018

        It’s sad that some people will consider this a “disappointment” if it can’t best Black Panther domestically or that it has to reach a certain worldwide figure to be a true success. I hate comparing the two, especially since Black Panther had virtually zero competition for two months whereas Infinity War will bump heads with Deadpool 2, Solo, Ocean’s 8, Incredibles 2 and more three weeks in, so you can’t expect it to have the same legs that BP did. We’ll see though!

        Reply
  3. Avatar
    Matt April 06, 2018

    How reliable is the tracking here as opposed to say Variety?

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Muhammad Suhaib Waqar Joyia April 06, 2018

      This site, box office mojo and deadline are the 3 most reliable sites on box office tracking…

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Jon April 06, 2018

        Boxofficeguru.com has been solid for like 20 years.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Iceman April 06, 2018

          Agree with you regarding Box Office Guru.

          Reply
  4. Avatar
    AC April 06, 2018

    My 2 cents: IW first weekend 240m, total 700.

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    Aniket April 06, 2018

    Rampage will be avobe $40 million weekend and total gross will be $100 million. And Avenger 3 will be $250 to $260 million in opening weekend $650 to $700 million lifetime collection in domestic market

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    Greg April 07, 2018

    I think you’re WAY off on all of these! I mean, I’m almost pretty sure I probably have a somewhat better idea of how this business works, since I DO spend a LOT of time on this couch lookin’ up stuff, than some, you know, GUY, who does this kind of stuff professionally. That said: I’m looking at IW at high to low mid-millions.

    Reply
  7. Avatar
    fsdalkj April 11, 2018

    You guys are way too bullish with Super Troopers 2. It’s been an iconic comedy for over a decade. Even if it sucks, it should make at least $25 million total.

    Reply

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