Long Range Tracking: ‘Action Point,’ ‘Adrift,’ & Updates on ‘Avengers: Infinity War’
This week’s report takes an early look at the first weekend of June 2018, currently set for the wide release of Johnny Knoxville’s Action Point and the romance-survival drama Adrift, starring Shailene Woodley and Sam Claflin.
Fans of Jackass and Bad Grandpa will be the target crowd for Knoxville’s return to the big screen in Action Point, with the recent trailer generating fairly positive reception online. If Paramount successfully plays up the fact that the movie’s stunts are genuine (ala the Jackass franchise), and if positive reviews follow, this could be a release to keep an eye on.
Counter-programming with a focus on mostly female audiences, Adrift could attract young adult date night crowds that helped make previous summer titles like The Shallows and 47 Meters Down successful. Social media growth thus far is modest, but that’s to be expected this far out from release.
This Week’s Key Updates
- Rampage is looking stronger as next week’s opening approaches. The film is making significant gains across all tracking metrics as Dwayne Johnson’s star power remains the key to interest levels now lining up with comparable titles such as Oblivion and The Legend of Tarzan.
Avengers: Infinity War Tracking
- Avengers: Infinity War continues to outpace all films in the superhero genre. Traditional industry tracking released this week backed up our own previous tracking reports indicating that the film should have little trouble cracking $200 million in its first weekend, although Disney and rival outlets are both projecting more conservatively than our current forecast models suggest. Robust marketing, interest, social media footprints, and pre-sale activity further underscore increasing expectations.
At this time, Boxoffice tracking ranges for the next Marvel tentpole are:
Domestic Opening Weekend: $219 million – $240 million
Domestic Total Gross: $550 million – $615 million
Current pinpoint forecasts are listed in the table below and will be updated as necessary in the weeks ahead.
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Opening||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total||% Chg from Last Week||Estimated Location Count||Distributor|
|4/13/2018||Rampage||$37,000,000||19%||$85,000,000||18%||3,950||Warner Bros. / New Line|
|4/13/2018||Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero||n/a||n/a||n/a||Fun Academy|
|4/13/2018||Truth or Dare||$14,000,000||-7%||$28,000,000||-7%||3,000||Universal|
|4/20/2018||I Feel Pretty||$17,000,000||-15%||$57,000,000||-15%||3,200||STXfilms|
|4/20/2018||Super Troopers 2||$5,000,000||$9,000,000||2,200||Fox Searchlight|
|4/20/2018||Traffik||$3,500,000||$8,750,000||1,500||Lionsgate / Summit|
|4/27/2018||Avengers: Infinity War||$225,000,000||5%||$586,000,000||9%||Disney|
|5/4/2018||Bad Samaritan||n/a||n/a||Electric Entertainment|
|5/4/2018||Overboard||$14,000,000||$39,000,000||Lionsgate / Pantelion|
|5/11/2018||Life of the Party||$21,000,000||$54,000,000||Warner Bros. / New Line|
|5/18/2018||Show Dogs||$8,000,000||$25,000,000||Open Road|
|5/25/2018||Solo: A Star Wars Story||$150,000,000||$390,000,000||Disney|