Long Range Tracking: ‘Ant-Man and the Wasp’ Debuts; ‘Deadpool 2’ & ‘Solo: A Star Wars Story’ Updates

The 20th chapter of the Marvel Cinematic Universe headlines this week’s report as we take an early look at the box office prospects for Ant-Man and the Wasp, plus updates on other key titles like Deadpool 2 and Solo: A Star Wars Story below.

Ant-Man and the Wasp
Opening Weekend Range: $75 – 95 million

The direct follow-up to 2015’s origin story will take the MCU back in time, chronologically speaking, to the period immediately after the events of Captain America: Civil War. Although fans will still be coming off the cliffhanger of Avengers: Infinity War and won’t likely get any answers to burning questions from that blockbuster, goodwill from this sequel’s leggy predecessor and the promise of Evangeline Lilly’s promotion to a co-leading presence should give this film notable momentum going into opening weekend.

Early buzz for the July 6 sequel is very positive with Twitter activity nearly doubling that of the first Ant-Man at the same point, although it has some work ahead of it to catch up to the social media performance of Doctor Strange (part of which can be attributed to the international fame of that film’s star, Benedict Cumberbatch).

Of note: prior sequels in the Marvel universe that followed Avengers films — such as Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2Captain America: The Winter SoldierThor: The Dark World, and both Iron Man sequels — enjoyed a range of 30 – 55 percent increases from the opening weekend gross of their relative film predecessors. That’s likely to be the case here, as well, especially if reviews live up to the usual Marvel standard.

Deadpool 2
Opening Weekend Range:  $125 – 150 million

Tracking continues to improve for the Merc’s sequel as Twitter activity has finally overtaken that of the first Deadpool at the same point before release, while also now topping Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Thor: Ragnarok.

Solo: A Star Wars Story
Opening Weekend Range: $120 – 150 million (3-day) / $145 – 185 million (4-day)

After an influx of buzz during the confluence of first ticket sales and the “May the 4th” franchise holiday last week, enthusiasm remains a bit more tempered at this point as die hard fans await the first wave of reviews and social media reactions from industry screenings — the latter of which lean very positive so far. Nevertheless, overall Twitter mentions for the film remain significantly ahead of Guardians Vol. 2 and Rogue One, underlining the franchise’s enduring popularity among the masses.

Other Updates

  • Action Point appeared on traditional tracking for the first time this week with metrics similar to those of Popstar, although it’s too early to gauge the film’s true potential as May’s trio of blockbusters continues to dominate moviegoer interest. Social media traction has stalled for the comedy in recent weeks, though, leading to more conservative expectations. Competition with Deadpool 2 for the R-rated comedy segment is a key factor.
  • Slated to open Wednesday, July 4, Boxoffice’s first tracking for The First Purge (based on the three-day weekend) is listed in the chart below. Although some diminished returns are expected for the franchise entering its fourth film, this prequel’s first teaser poster ignited strong online chatter.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
5/18/2018 Book Club $9,500,000 $30,000,000 2,500 Paramount
5/18/2018 Deadpool 2 $133,000,000 2% $319,000,000 2% 4,200 Fox
5/18/2018 Show Dogs $8,000,000 $25,000,000 3,000 Global Road Films
5/25/2018 Solo: A Star Wars Story $142,000,000 $390,000,000 4,100 Disney
6/1/2018 Action Point $13,500,000 -21% $34,000,000 -20% Paramount
6/1/2018 Adrift $10,000,000 $34,000,000 STXfilms
6/1/2018 Upgrade $3,000,000 NEW $7,500,000 NEW OTL Releasing / BH Tilt
6/8/2018 Hereditary n/a n/a A24
6/8/2018 Hotel Artemis n/a n/a Global Road
6/8/2018 Ocean’s 8 $42,000,000 $145,000,000 Warner Bros.
6/15/2018 The Incredibles 2 $110,000,000 $395,000,000 Disney / Pixar
6/15/2018 Superfly n/a n/a Sony
6/15/2018 Tag $13,000,000 $43,000,000 Warner Bros.
6/22/2018 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom $135,000,000 $340,000,000 Universal
6/29/2018 The Hustle n/a n/a Mirror Films / MGM
6/29/2018 Sanju n/a n/a Fox
6/29/2018 Sicario: Day of the Soldado $15,000,000 $39,000,000 Sony / Columbia
6/29/2018 Uncle Drew $16,500,000 $45,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit
7/4/2018 The First Purge $20,000,000 NEW $55,000,000 NEW Universal
7/6/2018 Ant-Man and the Wasp $84,000,000 NEW $225,000,000 NEW Disney / Marvel
Shawn Robbins

21 Comments

  1. Avatar
    DangerS May 11, 2018

    Ant-Man and the Wasp is going to be a lot leggier than that. An $84M opening should get it closer to $240M domestically.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jason Carpio May 11, 2018

      I think Ant-Man and the Wasp could even open above $100m. Especially if we find out there is an Infinity War connection.

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    Lea May 11, 2018

    The one Marvel flick that people just don’t care about. 84 mil sounds about right.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Juniorlobo May 11, 2018

      Speak for yourself!!

      Reply
    • Avatar
      ShellyMan May 12, 2018

      A lot people care for this film, plus he will play a big role in Avengers 4.

      Reply
  3. Avatar
    SF May 11, 2018

    Incredibles is far too low. It will be the first animation since Gnomes and true family films have been starved, since those with little ones won’t go to Avengers or Solo. I see it beating out Dory at $135m OW and legging to $500m as the only animation and all-family film of the summer. (Especially since Jurassic World 2 looks darker than JW1)

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Kt May 11, 2018

    Ant man & wasp will open closer to 120M with a 300-325M domestic total.

    Solo will hit 200M on the 4-day and finish 550-600M domestic total

    Incredibles 2 should see 120-140M open and a domestic total closer to 420-450M

    Jurrasic World will open closer to 150M but finish with a domestic under 300M, but easily make up for that fall with foreign numbers

    No matter what, it’s going to be a good summer to be theater owners.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Orlando May 11, 2018

      @Kt – You have some wild predictions there lol, the one film prediction i do agree with you on is “Incredibles 2”.But “Jurassic World 2” opening to $150 million and making less than $300 million domestic makes no sense, with that size of an opening i think it would finish with at least $330-$350m domestic. There’s no way “Solo’is coming close to $600m million domestic lol, “Black Panther” and “Infinity War” are the only two films reaching $600m domestic this year. I could see “Solo” reaching $400m domestic with an outside shot at $500m domestic if it carries over well with movie audiences.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Juniorlobo May 11, 2018

      Jurassic world should open $150 millions +
      And will finish his run with about $450 millions

      Reply
    • Avatar
      DangerS May 12, 2018

      The ATW prediction of Box Office Pro actually seems pretty solid for now (although it will probably have better legs).
      I don’t know if Solo can hit $200M over the four-day weekend, but even if it did, judging by how other Memorial Day openers have legged out, $450M would actually be the best case scenario. But I think a $180M 4-day total and a domestic total just over $400M is likely.
      Incredibles 2 could be even bigger than that.
      I can’t see JW2 having small legs. An opening weekend of $140-150M sounds about right, but the total will likely be around $350M.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Steve May 12, 2018

      Solo: A Stars Wars Story could be a disappointment. In my opinion the demand for Star Wars movies is beginning to slow down.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Steve May 12, 2018

      Solo: A Star Wars Story will be a disappointment. I’m my opinion the demand for Star Wars movies is beginning to slow down.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Norbert May 14, 2018

      Jurrasic Would have to be really bad to open to 150 and end up sub 300. With a great director here it’s an idiotic statement

      Reply
  5. Avatar
    Thedude3445 May 11, 2018

    I don’t know if I am just successfully getting marketed towards or if it’s natural buzz but Hotel Artemis is a movie I suddenly started hearing a lot about recently. It looks like it could be a bit of a sleeper hit for the same grindhouse action tier that many recent action films have thrived in, such as American Assassin, the Foreigner, the first John Wick, etc. It’s obviously coming out in a very different time of year than those, one much more jam-packed with blockbusters and action extravaganzas (including direct Rated-R competition with Deadpool 2 and Upgrade), so it definitely depends on it not being bad, but I’ll be optimistic for it.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jacen May 16, 2018

      Yeah, Hotel Artemis looks interesting to me, too. It has a unique premise and looks to be lower budget but still stylish. Basically, achieving exactly what it needs to with the budget that it needs. Of course, we still have to wait and find out if the result is any good, but I agree that it has the potential to be a nice little sleeper a la the first John Wick.

      Reply
  6. Avatar
    ShellyMan May 12, 2018

    The opening weekend for Ant-Man & The Wasp looks about right. I predicted this film box office performance will be on par with Doctor Strange (2016). I would increased the domestic total to $235-$250 million range.

    Reply
  7. Avatar
    Brian de Castro May 13, 2018

    I can’t agree with Jurassic World’s $135/330M. The last film took in over $650M – they really expect the franchise to drop by that much? Sure, their was a lot of anticipation for the last one since it had been a long time between Jurassic films, similar to the build-up to The Force Awakens. But a 50% drop off overall seems a bit high. Yes, there will be competition with The Incredibles 2 the week before and Ant-Man and the Wasp two weeks after, and this Jurassic film looks a little darker and less wondrous, so less kids might go. But don’t underestimate the love and fascination for dinosaurs – they are unique in that they are incredible monsters, but they are real – plus, returning Pratt, BDHoward and Jeff Goldblum only adds to the appeal. I’ll go with at least $160M/450. Remember how EVERYONE underestimated Jurassic World. Don’t do the same here.

    Reply
  8. Avatar
    Gem May 13, 2018

    So many big movies!!! By the the time this one arrives everyone will probably be too broke lol.

    Reply
  9. Avatar
    Tevin May 14, 2018

    These predictions are wildly off.

    Jurassic World 2 will open at $205m and make well over $500.

    Reply
  10. Avatar
    WMX May 15, 2018

    The project domestic gross for Solo is too low. I highly doubt that it’ll gross less than 10 million more than Episode III grossed back in 2005.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jacen May 16, 2018

      Solo is a hard one to figure. On the one hand, it’s the return of arguably the most popular Star Wars character (at least outside of Vader). However, it’s not Harrison Ford doing the duties. Also, there’s no Vader, which was a major selling point for Rogue One (especially since he was original series era, monstrous Vader, not whiny idiot prequel era Vader). Then there’s Yawn Howard directing, and the modestly acceptable early reviews (currently at 70%). I can thus see this film topping out at $350mil, actually.

      Reply

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