Long Range Tracking: ‘Blockers’ & ‘A Quiet Place’ Could Mark Positive Start to April Box Office
This week’s report takes a first look at April with two wide releases currently slated to open in the post-Easter market.
- Leslie Mann, John Cena, and Ike Barinholtz form an encouraging comedic ensemble that could help Blockers appeal to adult crowds. Additionally boasting comedy veterans Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg (This Is the End, Sausage Party) in producing roles further aids expectations that this could be a crowd-pleasing release in what’s expected to be a relatively slow month at the box office. Early social media buzz is positive with Facebook activity standing out in particular.
- John Krasinski directs himself and wife Emily Blunt in the original horror film A Quiet Place, whose trailer has generated strong reception both online and with significant play time in front of The Last Jedi over the holidays. The horror genre has also shown a knack for over-performing against expectations at the box office in recent years, setting this release up for potential success.
- Blockers will need to avoid the traps of mainstream comedies, which have been hit or miss (more the latter) at the box office and with critics in recent years. To that end, reviews and marketing closer to release will be key factors to watch.
- While opening one week before Friday the 13th on the calendar, A Quiet Place will face direct competition in its second frame on that very date with Truth or Dare — another horror release which is aimed directly at the teenage crowd crucial to driving the genre. Word of mouth could allow both films to coexist, though.
This Week’s Other Notes
- Although our forecasts remain relatively flat for Black Panther, all signs continue pointing to a major breakout next weekend for the Marvel tentpole. A four-day holiday weekend opening between $160M-170M is appearing more and more likely at this stage.
- Combined with modest social media buzz thus far, this week’s first traditional industry tracking for Red Sparrow came in slightly softer than expected.
- Chappaquiddick is currently scheduled for a wide release from Entertainment Studios on April 6. Tracking forecasts will follow closer to its opening as the film’s marketing and release strategy become more clear.
Current 8-Week Tracking:
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Opening||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total||% Chg from Last Week||Estimated Location Count||Distributor|
|2/16/2018||Early Man||$5,000,000||$25,000,000||2,200||Lionsgate / Summit|
|2/23/2018||Game Night||$16,000,000||$55,000,000||3,100||Warner Bros.|
|3/2/2018||Death Wish||$13,500,000||$34,000,000||Annapurna / MGM|
|3/9/2018||The Hurricane Heist||$6,000,000||$15,000,000||Entertainment Studios|
|3/9/2018||Strangers: Prey at Night||$4,000,000||$8,500,000||Aviron|
|3/9/2018||A Wrinkle In Time||$52,000,000||$154,000,000||Disney|
|3/16/2018||Tomb Raider||$22,000,000||$55,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|3/16/2018||Untitled A24 Horror||n/a||n/a||A24|
|3/23/2018||Midnight Sun||$6,000,000||$15,000,000||Open Road|
|3/23/2018||Pacific Rim Uprising||$20,000,000||$49,000,000||Universal|
|3/28/2018||Paul, Apostle of Christ||$13,000,000||$51,000,000||Sony / Columbia|
|3/29/2018||Ready Player One||$54,000,000||$180,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|3/30/2018||Bad Samaritan||n/a||n/a||Electric Entertainment|
|3/30/2018||God’s Not Dead: A Light In Darkness||$6,000,000||$15,400,000||Pure Flix|
|4/6/2018||A Quiet Place||$17,000,000||NEW||$60,000,000||NEW||Paramount|
Note: This report originally estimated Every Day‘s location count as 1,000, however, Orion Pictures has since confirmation it will release in an estimated 1,650 theaters.