Long Range Tracking: ‘Blockers’ & ‘A Quiet Place’ Could Mark Positive Start to April Box Office

This week’s report takes a first look at April with two wide releases currently slated to open in the post-Easter market.

PROS:

  • Leslie Mann, John Cena, and Ike Barinholtz form an encouraging comedic ensemble that could help Blockers appeal to adult crowds. Additionally boasting comedy veterans Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg (This Is the EndSausage Party) in producing roles further aids expectations that this could be a crowd-pleasing release in what’s expected to be a relatively slow month at the box office. Early social media buzz is positive with Facebook activity standing out in particular.
  • John Krasinski directs himself and wife Emily Blunt in the original horror film A Quiet Placewhose trailer has generated strong reception both online and with significant play time in front of The Last Jedi over the holidays. The horror genre has also shown a knack for over-performing against expectations at the box office in recent years, setting this release up for potential success.

CONS:

  • Blockers will need to avoid the traps of mainstream comedies, which have been hit or miss (more the latter) at the box office and with critics in recent years. To that end, reviews and marketing closer to release will be key factors to watch.
  • While opening one week before Friday the 13th on the calendar, A Quiet Place will face direct competition in its second frame on that very date with Truth or Dare — another horror release which is aimed directly at the teenage crowd crucial to driving the genre. Word of mouth could allow both films to coexist, though.

This Week’s Other Notes

  • Although our forecasts remain relatively flat for Black Panther, all signs continue pointing to a major breakout next weekend for the Marvel tentpole. A four-day holiday weekend opening between $160M-170M is appearing more and more likely at this stage.
  • Combined with modest social media buzz thus far, this week’s first traditional industry tracking for Red Sparrow came in slightly softer than expected.
  • Chappaquiddick is currently scheduled for a wide release from Entertainment Studios on April 6. Tracking forecasts will follow closer to its opening as the film’s marketing and release strategy become more clear.

Current 8-Week Tracking:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
2/16/2018 Black Panther $140,000,000 +1% $400,000,000 4,000 Disney
2/16/2018 Early Man $5,000,000 $25,000,000 2,200 Lionsgate / Summit
2/16/2018 Samson $3,500,000 $13,000,000 1,000 Pure Flix
2/23/2018 Annihilation $14,000,000 $50,000,000 2,900 Paramount
2/23/2018 Every Day $3,000,000 $7,500,000 1,650 Orion
2/23/2018 Game Night $16,000,000 $55,000,000 3,100 Warner Bros.
3/2/2018 Death Wish $13,500,000 $34,000,000 Annapurna / MGM
3/2/2018 Red Sparrow $22,000,000 -15% $69,000,000 -18% Fox
3/9/2018 Gringo $3,000,000 $7,500,000 STXfilms
3/9/2018 The Hurricane Heist $6,000,000 $15,000,000 Entertainment Studios
3/9/2018 Strangers: Prey at Night $4,000,000 $8,500,000 Aviron
3/9/2018 A Wrinkle In Time $52,000,000 $154,000,000 Disney
3/16/2018 Love, Simon $13,000,000 $40,000,000 Fox
3/16/2018 Tomb Raider $22,000,000 $55,000,000 Warner Bros.
3/16/2018 Untitled A24 Horror n/a n/a A24
3/23/2018 Midnight Sun $6,000,000 $15,000,000 Open Road
3/23/2018 Pacific Rim Uprising $20,000,000 $49,000,000 Universal
3/23/2018 Sherlock Gnomes $12,000,000 $45,000,000 Paramount
3/23/2018 Unsane n/a n/a Bleecker Street
3/28/2018 Paul, Apostle of Christ $13,000,000 $51,000,000 Sony / Columbia
3/29/2018 Ready Player One $54,000,000 $180,000,000 Warner Bros.
3/30/2018 Acrimony $19,000,000 $46,000,000 Lionsgate
3/30/2018 Bad Samaritan n/a n/a Electric Entertainment
3/30/2018 God’s Not Dead: A Light In Darkness $6,000,000 $15,400,000 Pure Flix
4/6/2018 Blockers $20,000,000 NEW $67,000,000 NEW Universal
4/6/2018 Chappaquiddick n/a n/a Entertainment Studios
4/6/2018 A Quiet Place $17,000,000 NEW $60,000,000 NEW Paramount

Note: This report originally estimated Every Day‘s location count as 1,000, however, Orion Pictures has since confirmation it will release in an estimated 1,650 theaters.

Boxoffice Staff

1 Comment

  1. Avatar
    Pavan Kumar Porapu February 10, 2018

    I think you’re going too far suggesting that a horror film would show a 3.5x weekend to final multiplier. That too with another one releasing the very next week.

    Reply

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