Long Range Tracking: ‘Bohemian Rhapsody,’ ‘Nobody’s Fool,’ & ‘The Nutcracker and the Four Realms’

Boxoffice’s Long Range Tracking report takes a first official look at the 2018 holiday season this week with early projections for several key releases scheduled for November 2.

Bohemian Rhapsody
Opening Weekend Range: $25 – 40 million

Buzz around Rami Malek’s (Mr. Robot) anticipated performance as Queen front-man Freddie Mercury is driving strong interest and online conversation thus far, indicating potential for the film to follow in the footsteps of Walk the Line and Ray as an award-contending music bio released in November. The film’s director change midway through production may cause some initial concern, and while we expect some front-loading by Queen’s multiple generations of fans, early reactions from industry screenings of the film’s first half-hour have been very encouraging.

Tyler Perry’s Nobody’s Fool
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 20 million

Rising star Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip) could be a notable driving factor for this comedy, not to mention writer/director’s Tyler Perry’s own consistent audience. We’re somewhat conservative for now given the recent availability of the film’s first trailer, but early trends suggest it could be a fair counter-programmer.

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 30 million

Forecasting models for Disney’s next live action adaptation are volatile for now, due in part to what will be a stronger slate of kid- and family-driven releases later in November and December. Nutcracker‘s early trailers have generated a fair amount of positive sentiment online, staying power could be solid with the holiday season ahead, and the film’s notable ensemble cast may help appeal to parents. Still, we’re cautious given the mixed performances of Disney’s non-tentpole features in recent years. Initial trend and performance comps include the likes of A Wrinkle In Time, The BFG, and Alice Through the Looking Glass.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
9/14/2018 The Predator (2018) $31,000,000 3% $68,000,000 3% 3,900 Fox
9/14/2018 A Simple Favor $13,500,000 $38,600,000 3,000 Lionsgate
9/14/2018 Unbroken: Path to Redemption $3,000,000 50% $7,500,000 53% 1,525 Pure Flix
9/14/2018 White Boy Rick $8,500,000 -15% $27,000,000 -16% 2,400 Sony / Studio 8
9/21/2018 Assassination Nation n/a n/a n/a Neon
9/21/2018 Fahrenheit 11/9 $5,000,000 NEW n/a 1,000 Briarcliff
9/21/2018 The House with a Clock In Its Walls $24,000,000 $79,000,000 3,500 Universal
9/21/2018 Life Itself n/a n/a n/a Amazon Studios
9/28/2018 Hell Fest $9,500,000 $22,000,000 Lionsgate / CBS Films
9/28/2018 Little Women (2018) n/a n/a Pinnacle Peak
9/28/2018 Night School (2018) $22,000,000 26% $69,000,000 26% Universal
9/28/2018 Smallfoot $22,000,000 -4% $76,500,000 -4% Warner Bros.
10/5/2018 A Star Is Born $44,000,000 $150,000,000 Warner Bros.
10/5/2018 Venom (2018) $65,000,000 $135,000,000 Sony / Columbia
10/12/2018 Bad Times at the El Royale $13,000,000 $40,000,000 Fox
10/12/2018 First Man $22,000,000 10% $105,000,000 17% Universal
10/12/2018 Goosebumps: Haunted Halloween $14,000,000 $45,000,000 Sony / Columbia
10/19/2018 Halloween (2018) $60,000,000 $142,000,000 Universal
10/19/2018 The Hate U Give n/a n/a Fox
10/19/2018 Serenity (2018) n/a n/a Aviron
10/26/2018 Hunter Killer $14,000,000 $41,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit
10/26/2018 Indivisible n/a n/a Pure Flix
10/26/2018 Johnny English Strikes Again $4,000,000 $8,750,000 Universal
11/2/2018 Bohemian Rhapsody $35,000,000 NEW $125,000,000 NEW Fox
11/2/2018 Tyler Perry’s Nobody’s Fool $15,000,000 NEW $40,000,000 NEW Paramount
11/2/2018 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms $20,000,000 NEW $79,000,000 NEW Disney
11/2/2018 The List n/a n/a Paramount
11/2/2018 Suspiria (Wide) n/a n/a Amazon Studios

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Shawn Robbins

19 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Adam September 07, 2018

    The pg13 rating will SEVERELY hurt bohemian Rhapsody

    Reply
    • Avatar
      BL September 07, 2018

      I’ve heard others complain about that. Did people expect an R? Or a PG? I always assumed it’d be PG-13

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Peter September 12, 2018

        I’m trying to think of any R-rated rock-band biopics that have been huge blockbusters …..

        Reply
  2. Avatar
    Delle September 07, 2018

    I think you’re definitely lowballing “Predator’s” final domestic gross. If it opens up to you’re $31 million prediction it’s definitely going to end up making more than $68 million. And you’re “Venom” prediction is even more goofy. Do you honestly think if that film opens to $65 million it will only finish with $135m domestic, come on now lol.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Andy September 07, 2018

      BvS opened to $166M and finaled at $330M domestic. Not even two times it’s opening weekend. Until we see how good the movie actually is $135M from a $65M opening is entirely in the realm of possibility especially given that a non summer release doesn’t usually benefit from strong weekday business.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Jord September 08, 2018

      Alien: Covenant opened with $36mill and ended with $74mill… So its safe to say The Predator will be frontloaded, just like Predators was with Adrien Brody.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Chris September 08, 2018

      Predators was extremely fronloaded. Fell over 70% in its 2nd weekend. The Predator will probably do the same,

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Peter September 12, 2018

        ^Good point. If ‘The Predator’ opens at $31 million and follows the same pattern as ‘Predators,’ it will finish with just over $65 million.

        Also, no summer legs.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Peter September 17, 2018

          Oh many, did they ever NOT lowball this one ….

          Reply
  3. Avatar
    jez September 08, 2018

    I think you’re highballing Bohemian Rhapsody a bit too much. An apt comparison would be Get on Up, the James Brown biopic that did sod all in 2014.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Fred Spar September 17, 2018

      Like Abba. the Queen fan base is massive and fanatic. I think the numbers are actually low if it gets decent reviews. But realistically, the big market for this movies will be overseas in almost every country outside of China. I mean Queen got 250,000 fans in the Ukraine, and 200,000 in Brazil, just a few years ago. They’re selling out stadiums and arenas around the world right now, and are one of the top bands touring bands in all of music …with a substitute singer. If it’s a good movie, it could make 200 million. Like Mamma Mia, this movie is more about the music, than the plot, anyways.

      Reply
  4. Avatar
    Revan September 08, 2018

    The nutcracker and the four realms will do oz the great and powerful numbers both domestically and worldwide.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      jakecho September 12, 2018

      you’re trolling right? there is no way, this is gonna be closer to alice thru the looking glass. nutcracker is a movie that should never have been made. your comment is comical how wrong it feels.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Peter September 13, 2018

      Why?

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Peter September 17, 2018

        (By which i meant why would it do Oz numbers?)

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Revan October 06, 2018

          They are similar in look, visuals, and premise. A person finds there way into a magical land and has to save the world. Both are produced by disney, both are live action fairytale films which disney has found tremendous success. Both are also based upon popular cultural stories – oz the great and power – the wizard of oz. the nutcracker and the four realms – the nutcracker

          Reply
          • Avatar
            Revan October 10, 2018

            I do admit though that is has a similar feel to Alice Through the Looking Glass and very well could underpreform with between -$250-$350 million worldwide considering disney’s mediocre performance this year…. One flop/underpreformer for every mega hit – Avengers Infinity War- Mega Hit, Solo a Star Wars Story – Mega Flop, Black Panther – Mega Hit, A Wrinkle in Time – Mega Flop, Incredibles II – Mega Hit, Christoper Robin – average preformer, AntMan and the Wasp – Mega Hit, so u could very well be right it could go either way, Ralph breaks the internet no doubt will be a mega hit, so at the pattern it is going nutcracker and mary poppins returns may both flop, or both succeed.

  5. Avatar
    Honigtime September 09, 2018

    How insane would it be if Star is Born topped Venom’s opening weekend?

    It could happen.

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    Queen of Westeros September 11, 2018

    I can see Nutcracker opening around $30-35M and ending up well above $100M. It’s a Disney Holiday film!

    Reply

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