Long Range Tracking: ‘Captain Marvel’ Soars In Early Trends, Could Reach $140M+ March Debut

It’s been eight months since this report last covered a Marvel Cinematic Universe title, but 2019 promises to be another massive year for the Disney franchise with three more highly anticipated chapters. The first will open March 8.

Captain Marvel
Opening Weekend Range: $140 – $180 million

PROS:

  • Reaching the opening weekend level of past March blockbusters like The Hunger Games ($152.5 million), Batman v Superman ($166 million), and Beauty and the Beast ($174.8 million) is in play based on current tracking metrics.
  • Audiences have demanded a female-driven film from the MCU since its inception eleven years ago. Delivering on that promise with the franchise’s most powerful superhero yet has only strengthened interest, and the major success of DC’s Wonder Woman underlines the potential of a strong female character in the lucrative Marvel universe.
  • Casting Oscar-winner Brie Larson alongside the return of series veterans Samuel L. Jackson and Clark Gregg further deepens the connection to past and future Marvel films.
  • On top of representing the first female-led film in the series, the character’s tease at the end of Avengers: Infinity War — as well as the likelihood of connecting the dots between that film and May’s forthcoming Avengers: Endgame — may serve to give this origin story a higher “must see” factor (ala Black Panther) than most origin films.
  • Following advance ticket sales starting earlier this week, Fandango reported it has become the third best pre-seller in MCU history after Infinity War and Black Panther.
  • Early trailer reactions have been very positive, which is par for the Marvel course these days. Two months from release, 89 percent of surveyed audiences in our Trailer Impact report said they are “definitely interested” or “interested” — only 5 percent less than Endgame‘s interest score.
  • Taking place in the 1990s, the nostalgia card could be effectively played with older millennial and Gen-X moviegoers. With strong appeal to women of all ages, four-quadrant potential is notably high.

CONS:

  • In the world of Disney’s MCU, there’s every expectation that the film will be a success even if it performs at the most conservative end of expectations. That being said, reviews and word of mouth — as with any film — will be very important toward opening weekend and long-run potential. For perspective, prior to Black Panther‘s historic $202 million opening, no origin film in the MCU had topped $100 million in its first three days.
  • With films like Dumbo and Shazam! opening late March/early April, plus a seven-week window before Endgame, the film’s opening-to-total multiple could be a little softer than Panther‘s (which opened more than two months ahead of Infinity War last year).
  • Strong early sales could partly be attributable to buzz around the character’s involvement with Endgame. As such, it’s difficult to gauge at this time if the film is following typical origin film patterns or is veering more closely to pre-sale trends like those of a sequel.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Release Tracking % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
1/18/2019 Glass $50,000,000 -25% $108,000,000 -40% 3,500 Universal
1/25/2019 The Kid Who Would Be King $10,000,000 $40,000,000 3,300 Fox
1/25/2019 Serenity (2019) $6,000,000 -14% $17,000,000 -19% 2,300 Aviron
2/1/2019 Miss Bala $9,000,000 -10% $25,000,000 -11% Sony / Columbia
2/8/2019 Cold Pursuit $13,000,000 $40,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit
2/8/2019 The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part $60,000,000 $213,000,000 Warner Bros.
2/8/2019 The Prodigy n/a n/a Orion Pictures
2/8/2019 What Men Want $25,000,000 $63,000,000 Paramount
2/13/2019 Isn’t It Romantic $14,000,000 $54,000,000 Warner Bros.
2/14/2019 Alita: Battle Angel $15,500,000 7% $44,000,000 7% Fox
2/14/2019 Fighting with My Family n/a n/a MGM
2/14/2019 Happy Death Day 2U $24,000,000 $52,000,000 Universal
2/22/2019 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World $44,000,000 $155,000,000 Universal
2/22/2019 Rhythm Section n/a n/a Paramount
2/22/2019 The Turning n/a n/a Universal / Amblin
3/1/2019 Chaos Walking n/a n/a Lionsgate
3/1/2019 Greta n/a n/a Focus Features
3/1/2019 Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral $27,000,000 $68,000,000 Lionsgate
3/8/2019 Captain Marvel $160,000,000 NEW $465,000,000 NEW Disney / Marvel

Tracking and forecasts are subject to change each week as marketing, reviews, and other factors are taken into consideration.

Contact us for information about subscribing to Boxoffice.com’s suite of forecasting and data services.

Shawn Robbins

36 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Delfra January 11, 2019

    Your early projections on Captain Marvel sound so high. Could it be that you underestimated Black Panther and Infinity War’s opening weekends in your long early long range tracking that you’re trying to make up for it here. Now I do think that CM will have a big opening weekend, but saying $160 million opening weekend for a character the General Movie audience has never seen on the big screen before is asking a lot. You should have been a little smarter than that and went along the lines of a $75-$100 million opening weekend and waited to see how strong the buzz will be going into it’s opening weekend. And finishing with $465m domestic whew, again that’s a very ambitious and big prediction for an unproven and unknown character to movie audiences. I know CM is part of the MCU, but that’s just too big of prediction to me. Now if the buzz going into CM’s opening weekend is very strong that my change my mind, but we’ll see. Many times you over predict the wrong movies openings and under predict the wrong movies openings as well.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Movie world January 11, 2019

      I agree but Captain Marvel is brilliantly positioned. CM will come out on international womansday and is hoping for the same effect Black Panther had in February. It’s the first female hero to have her solo movie in the mcu and she is prommised to be a big plot point in endgame. Also her trailer is #12 in the most watched trailer list and has a ton of views on Youtube. This is also the first MCU movie after 6/7 months and people are eager to see how the story continiues and if there maybe is an end credit scene that sets up endgame.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Rodrigo Olmedo January 11, 2019

      That’s why it’s a prediction,some times you hit the nail,some times you don’t.Don’t be a MCU Hater.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        manofbronze January 15, 2019

        ugh… MCU fanboys are the worst

        Reply
    • Avatar
      IVO ROTILI January 11, 2019

      Black Panther was a character general movie audience never saw so you never know. I agree with this prediction.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      BBO January 11, 2019

      Boxofficepro have access to NRG tracking data. It’s based on aided/unaided awareness, definite interest and first choice measurement.
      They don’t just pluck it out of thin air.
      You might want to use a 2.75x multiplier instead of 2.9x, but I’d say the OW number is completely understandable.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Charles January 11, 2019

      Cool story.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Seb January 12, 2019

      But don’t u think because of the advance ticket sales which is only behind BP and IW that that kind of opening is possible?

      Reply
    • Avatar
      TTVOMJ January 12, 2019

      umm…as much as i agree about most of what you said and i am also surprised its THIS high, i must say we dont know the metrics bopro uses so who knows…maybe it will soar

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Adam January 14, 2019

      Seems high, yes, but it’s also a few weeks before Endgame…which could either hurt it a bit or help it tremendously. I’m certain that it will end with a major tease for Avengers, and that will draw a lot of people to theaters to see it.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      night walker January 14, 2019

      Captain Marvel has the same advantages that black panther had. It is Marvel’s first Female led movie, similar to how Black Panther was Marvel’s first movie to be led by an African American cast. second Captain Marvel is being released less than two months before Endgame so anyone who wants to see Captain Marvel before going to see Endgame is going to see it in theaters. Next there is so much attention for Captain Marvel that it is inevitably going to be a big hit just because it is being portrayed as a critical piece in the Marvel Universe. finally Captain Marvel was teased in Infinity war, one of the most successful movies of all time, and the tease made it look like Captain Marvel will be MVP of Endgame. Marvel has been leading up to Captain Marvel, and Endgame for 11 years, and they have worked hard to make Captain Marvel a huge hit so this box office prediction is very likely.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Geoff January 14, 2019

      $160 million opening in March seems high to me as well – Black Panther’s buzz from that first teaser was WAY higher than Captain Marvel’s. You got me though, this shit’s not easy to predict! 🙂 I thought ‘Infinity War would open under ‘Ultron last year…..and then after that blew up, I was confident that Ant-Man & the Wasp would do $100 million opening EASILY! 😮

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    Ash January 11, 2019

    Looks like crap. I doubt it.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    IVO ROTILI January 11, 2019

    the black panther was a character, not known to General Movie audience so you never know. I agree with the prediction.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Geoffrey January 14, 2019

      Black Panther is a MUCH more well-known character than Captain Marvel ever was…..and he had already been featured in ‘Civil War.

      Reply
  4. Avatar
    Shellyman January 11, 2019

    Wow, that’s larger than I expected! I’m predicting somewhere around $95-$110 million opening. I always knew Captain Marvel is going to be a huge (depends on the word of mouth). The naysayers won’t be happy by this news LOL!

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    stoker January 11, 2019

    the word of mouth for this film is getting stronger each day ahead of release. most people excited about it. won’t be surprised if it opened 180 million.

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    RussVB January 12, 2019

    160 / 465 ?
    So much bigger than Wonder Woman (103 / 413) ? & Deadpool (132 / 363) ? & Spider-Man Homecoming (117 / 334) ?
    Well, if it has massive connectivity to Infinity War/Endgame then just maybe…
    but I suspect it won’t, and that those numbers are a bit, um, optimistic.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Adrian January 12, 2019

      It depends on where it debuts. MCU origin films have that kind of multiplier. Also Captain Marvels multiplier they gave her is lower Ant Man, Guardians Of The Galaxy, Black Panther, Iron Man, etc. Her multiplier is the MCU average multiplier. The big thing is her opening weekend. If it opens with $160m then $400m+ is very possible.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Delfra January 13, 2019

        I will agree with you there, in fact should CM reach $160m it’s opening weekend I don’t think reaching $400m domestic in the end is not only possible but probable. CM would only need to do a 2,9 multiplier to reach $465m domestic if it can open to $160m. I believe the 20 films in the MCU have averaged about a 2.7X multiplier, so just doing that multiplier from $160m would put it around $432m. I have no reason to think CM can’t do a 2.5-3x multiplier possibly. The real question like you said is how much will it open with. I can see a possible $100-plus million opening weekend, but I don’t see a $160 million opening weekend. Now of course that could change based on the strength of buzz and anticipation going into CM’s opening weekend.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Adrian January 13, 2019

          I agree. I personally don’t see $160m yet (like that’s a really big number, I RARELY predict that high this early) but I’m 110% sure it’s doing $100m+ opening weekend. I can’t really tell how big it will open until first week reviews come out, how my theaters look March 1st and how much buzz it has at the end of February. It can do as high as $195m in my opinion but the bar is $100m for sure. Box Office Pro is usually exactly correct or underestimate opening weekends for superhero films in these super early estimates so it could possibly do $160m or more.

          Reply
  7. Avatar
    Malik A. January 12, 2019

    Why do you think it will open that high? Just because Fandango said “it’s the 3rd biggest ticket seller for a Marvel movie” doesn’t mean it will make that type of money. Remember Solo?

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Joshua January 12, 2019

      Lol. He just put there the reasons why his prediction is like that. Many reasons in fact. Read it again.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Adrian January 12, 2019

      They literally listed a list of reasons for giving that number, not just fandango numbers. Also Solo never had reached close to the heights of what captain Marvel is tracking. $100m+ opening weekend is pretty much a lock, how high remains to be seen. And dont use solo as an example, it’s not a superhero movie. They are always exactly correct or underestimate superhero films opening weekends in their early 3 month tracking report.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Geoff January 14, 2019

        Um just as a reminder, their initial long-range tracking for Solo was for a $140 million opening weekend. And look there’s no science to this – they over-projected Spider-man Homecoming and Guardians 2 but under-projected Black Panther and ‘Infinity War, this could go either way at this point…..

        Reply
    • Avatar
      night walker January 14, 2019

      this website under predicts the majority of movie’s box office potential. just to name a quite a few big or over performing block busters in 2018 Black Panther, A quiet place, Avengers Infinity war, dead pool 2, the Incredibles 2, Jurassic world 2, the meg, Crazy rich Asians, Venom, A star is born, Bohemian Rhapsody, Spider-man into the Spider-verse, and Aqua-man. let the people predicting these box office numbers make a bold prediction. Captain Marvel, and Endgame are two movies in 2019 that they can predict high outcomes with more than a 50/50% of those movies matching, or topping predictions.

      Reply
  8. Avatar
    Deepak Kushwaha January 12, 2019

    I think it will perform like Spiderman Homecoming or Thor Ragnarok.

    Reply
  9. Avatar
    DC Rich January 12, 2019

    I wonder how well some of us would do trying to estimate OW and totals for movies 2 months out. I enjoy the information that they put out and following along as numbers fascinate me. Are they wrong sometimes? Hell yes. Just like us arm chair experts. I expect a bigger total for Glass if it opens to 50m+. But I give them credit for having a website for us to follow, doing multiple projections, and for putting a name on it. They could be like a bunch of others and just wait until the OW gets closer and when everyone is agreeing what the opening and totals will be. Or be like some and wait until after the Thursday previews and Friday showings to then do an estimate so they can try and look smarter. And unlike some sites, the posters on here are a little more civil even though some of us post on more than one site. I said a little more. 🙂 Enjoy the movies.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      TTVOMJ January 14, 2019

      i remember venom and how they hit the nail with it..i remember because i had real doubts 2 months prior… and i am also VERY grateful they have long range tracking and i can say other sites use this info as evidence of tracking, citing bopro…its funny because i am following them from the source so i always wonder how many times other unchecked news goes in circle and is it actually an echo chamber?..hate lazy/copy paste journalists:/

      Reply
  10. Avatar
    Joe Daniels January 12, 2019

    No way is Captain Marvel going to open so high. It’s gonna be more $100M and it will look like a flop compared to you.

    Reply
  11. Avatar
    Sammydict January 14, 2019

    160 opening weekend for Captain Marvel is completely absurd prediction for any metrics used for prediction. To note few reasons:

    1) Black Panther was an anomaly which was released when the related issue was at peak.

    2) Wonder Woman is a much well known character than Captain Marvel yet it no where made it near to 160m. Yes, one can argue the influence of DC to Marvel universe on movie goers but it was still seen as a super hit opening for a first ever female superhero movies.

    On a different note, I think it’ll open as a glorified Ant man & the Wasp at around 80-110m weekend and depending on the feedbacks will see if at all reaches the Wonder Woman final numbers.

    Reply
  12. Avatar
    night walker January 14, 2019

    I’m glad the Captain Marvel prediction is so high. Its about time box office pro started being bold in their predictions, and Captain Marvel is one of the best movies to have high hopes for. other than Avengers Endgame, and the Loin King.

    Reply
  13. Avatar
    manofbronze January 15, 2019

    Will wait for this to be released on video like most MCU movies. 3 months or less

    Reply
    • Avatar
      night walker January 15, 2019

      Captain Marvel will still be in theaters by the time Endgame comes out. It wont be on the video market yet so if you plan to see Endgame you should probably watch Captain Marvel in theaters. Marvel is intentionally making Captain Marvel a key piece to the Marvel Universe’s story, and you might not understand some of the events in Endgame if you don’t see Captian Marvel first.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Sammydict January 15, 2019

        Captain Marvel is set in 90’s whereas Endgame is in 21st century. The movie will just create a connection to the giveaway in Infinity Wars which revealed her introduction. Won’t giveaway anything into the Endgame.

        Reply
  14. Avatar
    Jacen January 15, 2019

    Initially, I questioned Pro’s prediction of how high CM would open and finish. I figured 80 to start and maybe 300 to finish. Then I saw all the posts in response. In previous months we’ve never had this much reaction, whether it was to under/overestimating Venom or Predator or Aquaman. If CM is creating this kind of response just here among BO prognostication fans, it suggests a larger amount of interest that Pro has deduced and factored in. Thus, 120 is probably the low end to start, and 350-400 to end (unless the movie reeks, in which case it will drop off considerably, but I can’t imagine that Marvel would fumble this film).

    Reply

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