Long Range Tracking: ‘Incredibles 2’ Update, Plus ‘Disney’s Christopher Robin,’ ‘The Spy Who Dumped Me’ & More

Four new films join this week’s tracking report, covering films slated to open Friday, August 3. Preceding those in our report is a quick update on next week’s big Pixar release.

The Incredibles 2
Opening Weekend Range: $130 – 155 million (up from $125 – 145 million)

Pixar’s long-awaited sequel continues to build momentum. The film’s Twitter footprint has start to close the gap between it and Finding Dory at comparable points in the pre-release window, while also now pacing to become Fandango‘s top pre-selling animated film in company history. Objectively speaking, we can’t rule out the possibility that pre-sales behavior is driven by nostalgic fans and potentially skewing tracking upward — particularly since this is a sequel about superheroes opening during the golden era of superhero cinema — but at this point it looks like Dory‘s all-time animated record opening of $135.1 million is more likely to fall than not.

Disney’s Christopher Robin
Opening Weekend Range: $25 – 35 million

Trailer reactions for this live action reimagining of the beloved property have been warmly enthusiastic, spurring expectations for this to be a solid family performer during the dog days of summer and into early fall. Appealing to multiple generations of Winnie the Pooh fans and boasting an encouraging ensemble cast led by Ewan McGregor, current tracking models are handily outpacing those of 2016’s Pete’s Dragon remake, hewing more closely to this year’s Peter Rabbit.

The Darkest Minds
Opening Weekend Range: $8 – 15 million

Unfortunately, the young adult novel adaptation craze has subsided in recent years. Although this one’s first trailer looks appealing to the target audience, a breakout in late summer may prove challenging based on current social media trends.

Mile 22
Opening Weekend Range: $8 – 15 million

Mark Wahlberg’s star power could benefit this original film, which distributor STX has eyes toward building a franchise off of. For now, though, current models lean very conservative with trends pacing behind Den of Thieves and Wahlberg’s own August 2013 opener, 2 Guns. As the fourth consecutive action film targeting adult males to open in as many weeks later this summer, a release date change from the studio could be reasonably expected in the near future.

The Spy Who Dumped Me
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 25 million

Mila Kunis and Kate McKinnon fans will be the driving force behind this comedy aiming largely toward adult women. After a testosterone-filled July, this could be a sleeper hit contender to watch for, not unlike Bad Moms two years ago or last year’s The Hitman’s Bodyguard.

8-Week Tracking:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
6/13/2018 Superfly $8,500,000 6% $24,000,000 20% 2,200 Sony
6/15/2018 The Incredibles 2 $138,000,000 10% $450,000,000 6% 4,200 Disney / Pixar
6/15/2018 Tag $13,000,000 $43,000,000 3,300 Warner Bros.
6/22/2018 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom $130,000,000 $327,500,000 4,200 Universal
6/29/2018 Sicario: Day of the Soldado $14,000,000 -7% $37,000,000 -5% Sony / Columbia
6/29/2018 Uncle Drew $16,500,000 $45,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit
7/4/2018 The First Purge $20,000,000 $55,000,000 Universal
7/6/2018 Ant-Man and the Wasp $84,000,000 $225,000,000 Disney / Marvel
7/13/2018 Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation $45,000,000 $155,000,000 Sony / Columbia
7/13/2018 Skyscraper $44,000,000 $128,000,000 Universal
7/20/2018 The Equalizer 2 $20,000,000 $58,000,000 Sony / Columbia
7/20/2018 Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! $33,000,000 $105,000,000 Universal
7/20/2018 Unfriended: Dark Web n/a n/a Universal
7/27/2018 Blindspotting (Expansion) n/a n/a Lionsgate / Summit
7/27/2018 Mission: Impossible – Fallout $65,000,000 $200,000,000 Paramount
7/27/2018 Teen Titans Go! to the Movies $16,000,000 $50,000,000 Warner Bros.
8/3/2018 Disney’s Christopher Robin $30,000,000 NEW $110,000,000 NEW Disney
8/3/2018 The Darkest Minds $12,000,000 NEW $38,000,000 NEW Fox
8/3/2018 Mile 22 $13,000,000 NEW $38,000,000 NEW STX
8/3/2018 Searching n/a NEW n/a NEW Sony / Screen Gems
8/3/2018 The Spy Who Dumped Me $17,000,000 NEW $63,000,000 NEW Lionsgate

 

Shawn Robbins

3 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Alessio Pasquali June 08, 2018

    $30M is what I would put Chirstopher Robin at and I agree with the 3.67X multiplier. Though, I think it still has a shot of topping Mission: Impossible 6 opening weekend, if people really go out for this movie.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Don June 11, 2018

      I doubt it

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    Chance Wilder June 08, 2018

    Yes, Mile 22 really should move, there’s an action movie every week through July – Sicario 2, Purge, Skyscraper, Equalizer 2, Mission Impossible, the market is too saturated. Bump it to…say, Sept. 21

    Reply

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