Long Range Tracking: ‘Incredibles 2’ Update, Plus ‘Disney’s Christopher Robin,’ ‘The Spy Who Dumped Me’ & More
Four new films join this week’s tracking report, covering films slated to open Friday, August 3. Preceding those in our report is a quick update on next week’s big Pixar release.
The Incredibles 2
Opening Weekend Range: $130 – 155 million (up from $125 – 145 million)
Pixar’s long-awaited sequel continues to build momentum. The film’s Twitter footprint has start to close the gap between it and Finding Dory at comparable points in the pre-release window, while also now pacing to become Fandango‘s top pre-selling animated film in company history. Objectively speaking, we can’t rule out the possibility that pre-sales behavior is driven by nostalgic fans and potentially skewing tracking upward — particularly since this is a sequel about superheroes opening during the golden era of superhero cinema — but at this point it looks like Dory‘s all-time animated record opening of $135.1 million is more likely to fall than not.
Disney’s Christopher Robin
Opening Weekend Range: $25 – 35 million
Trailer reactions for this live action reimagining of the beloved property have been warmly enthusiastic, spurring expectations for this to be a solid family performer during the dog days of summer and into early fall. Appealing to multiple generations of Winnie the Pooh fans and boasting an encouraging ensemble cast led by Ewan McGregor, current tracking models are handily outpacing those of 2016’s Pete’s Dragon remake, hewing more closely to this year’s Peter Rabbit.
The Darkest Minds
Opening Weekend Range: $8 – 15 million
Unfortunately, the young adult novel adaptation craze has subsided in recent years. Although this one’s first trailer looks appealing to the target audience, a breakout in late summer may prove challenging based on current social media trends.
Opening Weekend Range: $8 – 15 million
Mark Wahlberg’s star power could benefit this original film, which distributor STX has eyes toward building a franchise off of. For now, though, current models lean very conservative with trends pacing behind Den of Thieves and Wahlberg’s own August 2013 opener, 2 Guns. As the fourth consecutive action film targeting adult males to open in as many weeks later this summer, a release date change from the studio could be reasonably expected in the near future.
The Spy Who Dumped Me
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 25 million
Mila Kunis and Kate McKinnon fans will be the driving force behind this comedy aiming largely toward adult women. After a testosterone-filled July, this could be a sleeper hit contender to watch for, not unlike Bad Moms two years ago or last year’s The Hitman’s Bodyguard.
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Opening||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total||% Chg from Last Week||Estimated Location Count||Distributor|
|6/15/2018||The Incredibles 2||$138,000,000||10%||$450,000,000||6%||4,200||Disney / Pixar|
|6/22/2018||Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom||$130,000,000||$327,500,000||4,200||Universal|
|6/29/2018||Sicario: Day of the Soldado||$14,000,000||-7%||$37,000,000||-5%||Sony / Columbia|
|6/29/2018||Uncle Drew||$16,500,000||$45,000,000||Lionsgate / Summit|
|7/4/2018||The First Purge||$20,000,000||$55,000,000||Universal|
|7/6/2018||Ant-Man and the Wasp||$84,000,000||$225,000,000||Disney / Marvel|
|7/13/2018||Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation||$45,000,000||$155,000,000||Sony / Columbia|
|7/20/2018||The Equalizer 2||$20,000,000||$58,000,000||Sony / Columbia|
|7/20/2018||Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!||$33,000,000||$105,000,000||Universal|
|7/20/2018||Unfriended: Dark Web||n/a||n/a||Universal|
|7/27/2018||Blindspotting (Expansion)||n/a||n/a||Lionsgate / Summit|
|7/27/2018||Mission: Impossible – Fallout||$65,000,000||$200,000,000||Paramount|
|7/27/2018||Teen Titans Go! to the Movies||$16,000,000||$50,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|8/3/2018||Disney’s Christopher Robin||$30,000,000||NEW||$110,000,000||NEW||Disney|
|8/3/2018||The Darkest Minds||$12,000,000||NEW||$38,000,000||NEW||Fox|
|8/3/2018||Searching||n/a||NEW||n/a||NEW||Sony / Screen Gems|
|8/3/2018||The Spy Who Dumped Me||$17,000,000||NEW||$63,000,000||NEW||Lionsgate|