Long Range Tracking: ‘Creed 2,’ ‘Ralph Breaks the Internet,’ & ‘Robin Hood’

This week’s report features an early look at Thanksgiving weekend and how the frame’s three major releases are currently tracking.

Fun fact: Disney currently owns the top nine three-day Thanksgiving openings of all time. If Ralph Breaks the Internet meets early tracking projections, it would surpass Warner Bros.’ Four Christmases ($31.1 million) to give Disney complete ownership of the holiday’s top ten opening weekends (not accounting for inflation).

Creed 2
Opening Weekend Range: $20 – 25 million

The film’s first teaser has generated solid buzz online since debuting nearly two months, while the most recent trailer released this week has stirred up positive conversation once again. While we’re expecting some diminished returns from 2015’s predecessor, the return of Michael B. Jordan and Sylvester Stallone in a natural sequel that again touches on the franchise’s nostalgic roots should play to this follow-up’s hopes of counter-programming against the holiday season’s tentpole films.

Ralph Breaks the Internet
3-Day Opening Weekend Range: $45 – 60 million

No one is betting against Disney these days, and their first sequel to a recent in-house animated hit is poised to deliver another significant holiday run.  Early social media metrics are generally in line with those of films like Moana and Coco, suggesting a similar type of run is in store here. Competition with The Grinch will be a factor as parents and kids have plenty of options to choose from in November and December, but the brand name and goodwill of the first Ralph should help guarantee this will be one of the season’s top hits if reviews/word of mouth turn out strong again.

Robin Hood
Opening Weekend Range: $6 – 12 million

Taron Egerton’s rising fame from the Kingsman films and Eddie the Eagle — alongside co-star Jamie Foxx — will be key strengths here, but early sentiment scores for the latest iteration of the iconic character indicate marketing will have some challenges ahead of it. Following its first trailer, Boxoffice is tracking the film’s overall social media footprint behind King Arthur: Legend of the Sword at the same point in the pre-release window. The competitive November market around it adds additional concerns.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
10/5/2018 A Star Is Born $44,000,000 $170,000,000 3,500 Warner Bros.
10/5/2018 Venom (2018) $65,000,000 $135,000,000 4,000 Sony / Columbia
10/12/2018 Bad Times at the El Royale $11,000,000 -8% $34,000,000 -8% 2,900 Fox
10/12/2018 First Man $20,000,000 $100,000,000 3,600 Universal
10/12/2018 Goosebumps: Haunted Halloween $17,000,000 $54,000,000 3,500 Sony / Columbia
10/19/2018 Halloween (2018) $60,000,000 $150,000,000 6% Universal
10/19/2018 The Hate U Give (Wide) n/a n/a Fox
10/19/2018 Serenity (2018) n/a n/a Aviron
10/26/2018 Hunter Killer $14,000,000 $41,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit
10/26/2018 Indivisible n/a n/a Pure Flix
10/26/2018 Johnny English Strikes Again $4,000,000 $8,750,000 Universal
11/2/2018 Bohemian Rhapsody $35,000,000 $125,000,000 Fox
11/2/2018 Tyler Perry’s Nobody’s Fool $15,000,000 $40,000,000 Paramount
11/2/2018 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms $20,000,000 $79,000,000 Disney
11/2/2018 The List n/a n/a Paramount
11/2/2018 Suspiria (Wide) n/a n/a Amazon Studios
11/9/2018 The Girl in the Spider’s Web $15,000,000 $45,000,000 Sony / Columbia
11/9/2018 Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch $79,000,000 $305,000,000 Universal
11/9/2018 Overlord $14,000,000 $42,000,000 Paramount
11/16/2018 Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald $75,000,000 $222,000,000 Warner Bros.
11/16/2018 Instant Family $18,000,000 n/a Paramount
11/16/2018 A Private War (Expansion) n/a n/a Aviron
11/16/2018 Widows $20,000,000 $78,000,000 Fox
11/21/2018 Creed 2 $23,000,000 NEW $80,000,000 NEW MGM
11/21/2018 The Front Runner (Wide Expansion) n/a n/a Sony
11/21/2018 Ralph Breaks the Internet $50,000,000 NEW $200,000,000 NEW Disney
11/21/2018 Robin Hood $9,500,000 NEW $26,000,000 NEW Lionsgate / Summit
11/21/2018 Green Book n/a n/a Universal

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Shawn Robbins

13 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Mujan September 28, 2018

    ralph has elsa…nuff said! xD TTVOMJ

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Malik A. September 28, 2018

    I think Creed 2 is going to open higher than the first movie, maybe between $30 and $35 million. Wreck It Ralph 2’s opening will be closer to Frozen than Coco.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Viktor September 28, 2018

    “The List” is “Nobody’s Fool”, that was the working title.

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    it's moi September 28, 2018

    The opening for Wreck it Ralph 2 is going to or it should be 70-75.

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    RussVB September 28, 2018

    Grinch 305 & Ralph 200 ?
    Seems a bit off to me. If they do make 500+ combined, I’ll be surprised if Ralph gets less than half of it.

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    Whodunit September 28, 2018

    The numbers for Creed seem a bit low. I could see it reaching up to $35million but that depends on Robin Hood. $9 million for Robin Hood seems very cautious. The trailer didn’t look great but it wasn’t horrendous.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jacen October 04, 2018

      The trailer looks and feels like a mid-90s action film. It didn’t have the fade-in/fade-out garbage in lots of amounts, but what it showed just looked like a cheap post-Costner attempt by some other studio to cash in on his film’s huge success back then. Then staging, the lighting, the editing–it all looked generic and uninspired. Not bad, to be sure, but not essential. And I think that is what will keep it from making any waves: it’s not essential, so people will most likely catch it on video (the caveat, as always, would be if it gets strong reviews).

      Reply
  7. Avatar
    Eugene A Lee September 29, 2018

    They shouldve just made a green arrow movie.

    Reply
  8. Avatar
    Leo September 29, 2018

    I think Wreck It Ralph 2 will be better.. and Grich not so much, it looks pale to movie…Im no convinced that will make that much.

    Reply
  9. Avatar
    manofbronze October 01, 2018

    interested to see if Venom opens larger

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Ssss October 04, 2018

      After the reviews I highly doubt it Leo.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Blublublumon November 25, 2018

        It’s now obvious you were wrong dear internet mate

        Reply
  10. Avatar
    X-Fan October 03, 2018

    Why so low on Creed? The first movie was extremely well received, MBJ is hot off Black Panther and it sees the return of Dolph Lundgren to the franchise.

    Reply

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