Long Range Tracking: ‘Deadpool 2,’ ‘Book Club,’ & ‘Show Dogs’

Deadpool 2 represents this week’s headline addition to Long Range Tracking. The anticipated sequel is slated to hit North American theaters on May 18, alongside Open Road’s Show Dogs and Paramount’s Book Club.

Two years ago, the first Deadpool shattered February box office records (recently eclipsed by Black Panther) when it wowed the industry with a $132 million three-day weekend bow. Still the best R-rated launch ever — just ahead of It‘s $123.4 million last September — Deadpool marked a turning point for the superhero genre with its raunchy, self-referential, fourth-wall-breaking comedy from star Ryan Reynolds. The film’s pre-release social marketing campaign became a benchmark on how to engage audiences with a relatively unknown character outside the core fan base.

Can Fox, Reynolds, and team do it again?

It’s an unfair question, because the inevitable answer is no — not in the same way, at least, and it doesn’t really need to. After a massive $363 million domestic/$783 million global run, the cat is out of the proverbial bag. Deadpool is now an established brand, and has no significant box office comparisons beyond itself due to its unique nature as an R-rated tentpole comic book sequel.

The first film was a breath of fresh air in the realm of superheroes, and had a double holiday weekend (Valentine’s Day and Presidents Day) to compound opening weekend interest among the masses. That kind of synergy won’t be duplicated on a non-holiday weekend in May, particularly landing on the fourth weekend of Avengers: Infinity War and coming just one week before Solo: A Star Wars Story. All three films will lean somewhat heavily toward male crowds aged 25 and up.

Nevertheless, strong social media sentiment culled from our Twitter and Facebook analyses indicates fans are pumped for the sequel — in large part due to Josh Brolin’s debut as Cable, one of the most popular villains from Marvel comic lore. While diminished returns are expected at the box office based on current models, early indicators still point toward another sure-fire commercial hit for Fox as their over-arching X-Men universe (of which Deadpool is technically part of) continues to expand. Should strong reviews follow as they did for the first title, forecasts could see additional gains in the weeks ahead.

Boxoffice’s first tracking for Deadpool 2 and the weekend’s fellow openers can be found below, in addition to various other updates.

8-Week Tracking:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
3/29/2018 Ready Player One $37,000,000 $120,000,000 4,100 Warner Bros.
3/30/2018 Acrimony $15,500,000 7% $37,000,000 6% 2,000 Lionsgate
3/30/2018 God’s Not Dead: A Light In Darkness $6,000,000 $15,400,000 1,500 Pure Flix
4/6/2018 Blockers $14,500,000 -19% $47,000,000 -21% 3,300 Universal
4/6/2018 Chappaquiddick $3,500,000 $7,000,000 2,300 Entertainment Studios
4/6/2018 The Miracle Season n/a n/a n/a Mirror / LD Entertainment / Pure Flix
4/6/2018 A Quiet Place $26,000,000 $80,000,000 3,100 Paramount
4/13/2018 Rampage $27,000,000 35% $65,000,000 31% Warner Bros. / New Line
4/13/2018 Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero n/a n/a Fun Academy
4/13/2018 Truth or Dare $15,000,000 -21% $30,000,000 -23% Universal
4/20/2018 I Feel Pretty $21,000,000 $70,000,000 STXfilms
4/20/2018 Super Troopers 2 $5,000,000 $9,000,000 Fox Searchlight
4/20/2018 Traffik $3,500,000 $8,750,000 Lionsgate / Summit
4/27/2018 Avengers: Infinity War $215,000,000 $538,000,000 Disney
5/4/2018 Bad Samaritan n/a n/a Electric Entertainment
5/4/2018 Overboard $14,000,000 $39,000,000 Lionsgate / Pantelion
5/4/2018 Tully n/a n/a Focus Features
5/11/2018 Breaking In $14,000,000 $37,500,000 Universal
5/11/2018 Life of the Party $21,000,000 $54,000,000 Warner Bros. / New Line
5/18/2018 Book Club $6,000,000 NEW $19,000,000 NEW Paramount
5/18/2018 Deadpool 2 $100,000,000 NEW $242,000,000 NEW Fox
5/18/2018 Show Dogs $8,000,000 NEW $25,000,000 NEW Open Road
Shawn Robbins

22 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Sam March 23, 2018

    You seriously expect Deadpool 2 to decrease by over $100 million domestically? The movie is going to make over $300 million domestically at the very least regardless of the reviews.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      JaceeB March 23, 2018

      I agree. Deadpool 2 is going to make a bit more. There is actually not a lot of competition in May.
      Avengers is almost a month away, and Solo can’t go solo for that entire lucrative Memorial Day weekend.
      Normally there is like 3 or 4 big movies in May alone, sometimes more.
      Besides, Deadpool is not an expensive movie to make like most superhero movies.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Sam March 23, 2018

        Exactly. It’s literally going to be Han Solo and Deadpool 2 all the way until Incredibles 2 comes out. Okay possibly Oceans 8 but even by then, Deadpool 2 will be in its 4th weekend with the majority of its gross being had. Deadpool 2’s second weekend will also be MDW which should soften the drop a bit. March of 2017 showed us that several blockbusters can exist in the same month and make a lot of money. I am failing to see why Deadpool 2 and Han Solo cannot do the same together especially since like you said there is nothing else out in May. Unless Deadpool 2 is a Green Lantern level disaster, I don’t see how it makes $240 million domestic. Then again that opening weekend number is what I find even more absurd than the total domestic total.

        Reply
  2. Avatar
    DangerS March 23, 2018

    Really? I expect it to do even better than the first one honestly. Opening at $160-180M with a domestic total of $390-450M.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Matt March 23, 2018

      That’s nearly impossible. It’s sandwiched between Avengers Infinity War (which is basically guaranteed make $500 million+, with the potential for much more if it’s great) and Solo (which, even if it’s not great, is still a Star Wars movie based on one of their most popular characters, and no Star Wars film has made less than $477 million adjusted for inflation), Deadpool 2 is basically guaranteed to take a huge dive from the first one, though it will still be very successful relative to its budget and normal blockbuster expectations. An opening close to the first one ($132 million) is possible, but I don’t see it making anything more than $275-300 million.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Charles March 23, 2018

      $400M + would be hard to reach when sandwiched between Avengers IW and Solo.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Delfra March 26, 2018

      Nah i think $160-$180m opening weekend fir “Deadpool”is asking too much. I definitely see it opening to $100m-plus it’s opening weekend, if reviews are strong perhaps $130-$140m opening weekend. But finushing with $450m domestic, no way it’s going to make it to that amount. While i think this site might be lowballing it bit with $242m, you’re definitely highballing it with $450m dude lol.

      Reply
  3. Avatar
    Matt March 23, 2018

    How is Infinity War tracking not higher? This site seems to be really underselling it.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Adam6710 March 28, 2018

      They’ve said so before, but when it gets to 200M+ it becomes very difficult to gauge, so they’ve currently pegged it at $215, slightly more than the first Avengers film. I have no doubt it will top that, and there’s an outside shot it could outgross The Force Awakens’ $247M.

      Reply
  4. Avatar
    Christopher Crofts March 23, 2018

    300 plus i have a feeling Solo going to underperform

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    Matt D. March 23, 2018

    If Deadpool 2 gets the same reviews or even better than the original it could make about $115-120 M and finish with $310-330 M if most. If The reviews are poor it would maybe make $80 M OW and go maybe go on to make $180-200 M which would stink and I am hoping it is great. Avengers should be a lot higher since it has three weeks to shine and tickets are selling out like crazy. I also think that if the hype for A Quiet Place builds up it could be a sleeper hit like Get Out was.

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    Brandon March 23, 2018

    Deadpool 2 is gonna do at least 120 million in it’s opening weekend and finish with about 310 if not more. The Avengers will be in it’s 4th weekend so it will most likely start losing some steam. And i don’t think Solo will affect Deadpool 2 that much it seems like they will have a different audience

    Reply
  7. Avatar
    BL March 23, 2018

    If Deadpool 2 gets mixed to poor (basically weaker than the first one) deception this prediction is on point but if it gets the same or better I could see a 130-160 opening and a 280-300 million finish so I’d settle it in the middle and predict
    OW: 120 million
    2W: 50 million
    DT: 290-300 million
    WW:675-700 million

    Reply
  8. Avatar
    Joe Daniels March 23, 2018

    Deadpool 2 will not be a major hit unlike its successor, but it will be a hit, and probably gross about $225 – 250 million domestically and a little over $300 million overseas for a $550 million total.

    Deadpool 2 supposedly has crappy first reactions and that’s very rare when it comes to superhero first reactions.

    Reply
  9. Avatar
    TalkguyAndy March 23, 2018

    Grossly underestimating a Quiet Place and Deadpool 2, over predicting Rampage. 30% of on each.

    Reply
  10. Avatar
    John March 23, 2018

    I feel Blockers is being a little underestimated. Yes comedies have been struggling lately but this one is getting strong notices. At the least I think it can do as well as Game Night. As for Deadpool 2, I think it will do a little better but I understand the hesitations given the stronger competition and not really being unique like the first one.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      David Howell March 27, 2018

      I could definitely see Blockers being a slow burner that legs out. Perhaps it’ll open to $14.5m and then leg out past $50m as the most obvious option for the W25+ quadrant.

      Deadpool 2 will certainly be much more frontloaded than the first one, but it definitely should get a nine-figure opening (Infinity War moving up helps it a lot) and might hold deceptively well in the subsequent holiday weekend. The people who so vocally rejected the Star Wars brand after TLJ? Deadpool 2 is probably right in their wheelhouse.

      Reply
  11. Avatar
    Ronnie W March 26, 2018

    Super Troopers 2 will definitely be a surprise hit. Even if it goes to limited release, the buzz is just too great.

    Reply
  12. Avatar
    Lock March 26, 2018

    I feel like this chart is underestimating Ready Player One and Blockers. Both have positive reviews and strong word of mouth. Possibly Truth or Dare as well, Blumhouse knows how to find an audience.

    Reply
  13. Avatar
    Arnold March 28, 2018

    How did rampage increase by 35% ?. Honestly I think avengers and Deadpool will do better than predicted.

    Reply

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