Long Range Tracking: ‘A Dog’s Way Home’ & ‘The Upside’; Plus ‘Aquaman’ & More Updates

This week’s report continues an early look at 2019’s first wide releases, moving into the weekend of January 11.

A Dog’s Way Home
Opening Weekend Range: $9 – 14 million

Co-adapted by A Dog’s Purpose author W. Bruce Cameron, we expect some fans of that film to turn out for this family-driven pic. Early tracking is modest, which is to be expected for a fairly low-profile title whose marketing campaign won’t fully kick in until the crowded holiday corridor has passed.

The Upside
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 15 million

Bryan Cranston and Kevin Hart should prove an attractive duo for their fans in this remake of 2011’s international hit, The Intouchables. Again, post-holiday tracking is lukewarm at the moment, but our primary concern will be the ability of the film to catch on during the heart of award season as many candidates will be targeting a similar adult audience.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Release Tracking % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
11/21/2018 Creed II $34,000,000 $113,000,000 3,350 MGM
11/21/2018 Ralph Breaks the Internet $52,000,000 4% $210,000,000 5% 3,800 Disney
11/21/2018 Robin Hood $9,000,000 -10% $28,000,000 -7% 2,700 Lionsgate / Summit
11/21/2018 Green Book (Wide Expansion) $5,500,000 n/a 1,000 Universal
11/30/2018 The Possession of Hannah Grace $2,500,000 NEW $5,000,000 NEW 2,000 Sony / Columbia
12/12/2018 Once Upon a Deadpool (Limited Release) n/a n/a Fox
12/14/2018 Mortal Engines $16,000,000 $55,000,000 Universal
12/14/2018 The Mule $14,000,000 $80,000,000 Warner Bros.
12/14/2018 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse $22,000,000 $90,000,000 Sony / Columbia
12/19/2018 Mary Poppins Returns $40,000,000 $350,000,000 Disney
12/21/2018 Aquaman $55,000,000 10% $200,000,000 14% Warner Bros.
12/21/2018 Bumblebee $20,000,000 $100,000,000 Paramount
12/21/2018 Second Act $7,000,000 $40,000,000 STX
12/21/2018 Welcome to Marwen n/a n/a Universal
12/25/2018 Holmes & Watson $17,000,000 $85,000,000 Sony / Columbia
12/25/2018 Vice (Wide) n/a $65,000,000 Annapurna
1/4/2019 Eli (2019) n/a n/a Paramount
1/4/2019 Escape Room $13,000,000 $32,000,000 Sony / Columbia
1/11/2019 A Dog’s Way Home $12,000,000 NEW $40,000,000 NEW Sony / Columbia
1/11/2019 Perfect Strangers n/a n/a Lionsgate / Pantelion Films
1/11/2019 Replicas n/a n/a Entertainment Studios
1/11/2019 The Upside $13,000,000 NEW $39,000,000 NEW STX

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Shawn Robbins


  1. Avatar
    night walker November 17, 2018

    Finally Aqua-man’s prediction is higher. This $200 million total prediction is a decently optimistic for some people yet an over all safe prediction. And they raised Ralph Breaks the internet prediction a bit. I see the new predictions as a much more likely outcome. Sadly fantastic beasts is not doing too well.

    • Avatar
      manofbronze November 20, 2018

      Don’t worry about FB, doing well overseas

      • Avatar
        night walker November 20, 2018

        Has any one seen reports on Aqua-man’s first 24 hour Pre-sold ticket sales. they are a very good sine that aqua-man will be huge at the box office.

        • Avatar
          Aayush Shah November 21, 2018

          Yes! Expecting a 50 – 100% bump in the predictions next weekend!

          • Avatar
            night walker November 27, 2018

            I’v just seen early social media reactions from critics on Aqua-man, and they are over the top positive. If Aqua-man doesn’t end up being the next jumanji I would be really surprised. Aqua-man has potential to be the next Avatar, plus it doesn’t have star wars competition.

  2. Avatar
    Welcome Incorporated November 30, 2018

    @ nightwalker- Prepare to be “really surprised”. It will be a miracle if it even gets to $600 million.


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