Long Range Tracking: ‘Escape Room’ First Look; ‘Creed II,’ ‘Aquaman,’ & More Updates

This week’s report briefly takes an early look at the first confirmed wide release slated for the new year on the weekend of January 4.

Escape Room
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 20 million

The film’s first trailer recently debuted online, promising the high production quality that has come to be expected from the booming horror/thriller field. Early social media buzz is difficult to gauge for original films in the genre, particularly when opening immediately in the wake of a crowded end-of-year corridor filled with titles audiences are more focused on. Still, there is enough reason to expect this will successfully counter-program those holiday holdovers thanks to targeted appeal among teen and young adult moviegoers.

Paramount currently has Eli slated to open on January 4; however, we’re expecting that release to change with minimal marketing up to this point and the direct competition with Sony’s Escape Room.

8-Week Forecast

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Release Tracking % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
11/16/2018 Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald $70,000,000 -4% $205,000,000 -5% 4,000 Warner Bros.
11/16/2018 Instant Family $18,000,000 $100,000,000 3,000 Paramount
11/16/2018 Widows $15,500,000 -6% $61,100,000 -6% 3,000 Fox
11/21/2018 Creed II $34,000,000 13% $113,000,000 13% 3,300 MGM
11/21/2018 Ralph Breaks the Internet $50,000,000 $200,000,000 3,900 Disney
11/21/2018 Robin Hood $10,000,000 $30,000,000 2,900 Lionsgate / Summit
11/21/2018 Green Book (Wide Expansion) $5,500,000 NEW n/a 2,400 Universal
11/30/2018 The Possession of Hannah Grace n/a n/a Sony / Columbia
12/12/2018 Once Upon a Deadpool (Limited Release) n/a n/a Fox
12/14/2018 Mortal Engines $16,000,000 $55,000,000 Universal
12/14/2018 The Mule $14,000,000 $80,000,000 Warner Bros.
12/14/2018 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse $22,000,000 $90,000,000 Sony / Columbia
12/19/2018 Mary Poppins Returns $40,000,000 $350,000,000 Disney
12/21/2018 Aquaman $50,000,000 11% $175,000,000 Warner Bros.
12/21/2018 Bumblebee $20,000,000 $100,000,000 Paramount
12/21/2018 Second Act $7,000,000 $40,000,000 STX
12/21/2018 Welcome to Marwen n/a n/a Universal
12/25/2018 Holmes & Watson $17,000,000 $85,000,000 Sony / Columbia
12/25/2018 Vice (Wide) n/a $65,000,000 Annapurna
1/4/2019 Eli (2019) n/a n/a Paramount
1/4/2019 Escape Room $13,000,000 NEW $32,000,000 NEW Sony / Columbia

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Shawn Robbins

4 Comments

  1. Avatar
    night walker November 13, 2018

    There are some things i like about these updates, and some things I don’t. First off $70 million opening $205 million domestic total for Crimes of Grindelwald is to low the early reviews are mixed, but the score has climbed from a 52% to a 58%, and I think that score will get a good bit higher when the larger number of reviews start coming in, I think this movie just got a large bad batch of early reviews, this film has more people interested than the first movie, and i think it will still be able to match it’s predecessor. Second I can see instant family playing out similar to how wonder did last year, and the $100 million prediction is a good sine for this years year to year box office comparisons. Third Creed 2 actually has a bold yet reasonable prediction, this movie looks better than the first, and it brings back some things from the original rocky series. Fourth Ralph is still way too low. Fifth Aqua-man’s weekend prediction grew $5 million to a $50 million opening weekend prediction, but it’s total prediction is still $175 million meaning they just brought down Aqua-man’s multiple from a 3.9 to a 3.5, why is this website so pessimistic about Aqua-man’s chances? Aqua-man is the movie of 2018 that has potential to be the next Jumanji.

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    night walker November 14, 2018

    Ralph breaks the internet may end up being bigger than even my $280 million would suggest. the early reviews are amazing at 91% positive. I was wrong about fantastic beast’s reviews as they have slipped from a 58% to a 51%. I think fantastic beasts can still exceed the prediction, but it likely wont match it’s predecessor at least not domestically.

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    • Avatar
      night walker November 14, 2018

      Fantastic beasts now has a 54% on rotten tomatoes, and Ralph has an impressive 93%. At the rate the reviews are changing its hard to tell where they will end up.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        night walker November 14, 2018

        Just to add to this comment Instant Family has a 76% on Rotten tomatoes. Compare that to the 20% that Cinema Blend predicted it would have. the good reviews should help the film’s weekend be a bit bigger, and the reviews should help it have strong legs.

        Reply

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