Long Range Tracking: ‘Glass’ Could Be the Rare January Blockbuster
This week’s report takes an early look at M. Night Shyamalan’s highly anticipated follow-up to Split and Unbreakable, slated for release on January 18, 2019.
Opening Weekend Range: $55 – 80 million
- Split was a runaway hit two years ago when it exceeded expectations with a $40 million debut and leggy $138.3 million domestic total on the heels of strong word of mouth and critical reception. The film’s surprise twist connecting it to a previous Shyamalan hit left fans excited for the prospect of the long-discussed follow-up to Unbreakable after nearly two decades of waiting.
- The return of Bruce Willis and Samuel L. Jackson as their Unbreakable characters, alongside James McAvoy and the tremendous praise he received for his Split performance, gives the sequel serious marquee appeal.
- Superheroes are hotter than ever at the box office right now, and the promise of a unique, grounded action/thriller through the lens of Shyamalan could be very appealing to audiences looking for a fresh hook from the genre.
- With plenty of distance between Christmas releases and February’s high profile titles, this is arguably the first and only tentpole release of January 2019.
- Early Trailer Impact metrics are very encouraging with nearly 78 percent of surveyed audiences indicating interest in seeing the film. That’s comparable to the 82 percent earned by Halloween when it was first tracked six weeks out from release.
- Those unfamiliar with Unbreakable may not be as excited by the connection between that film and Glass, although part of the impressive success of Split was its ability to capture a young adult audience on its own merits without the recognition of the first film in the trilogy.
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Release Tracking||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total Forecast||% Chg from Last Week||Estimated Location Count||Distributor|
|11/30/2018||The Possession of Hannah Grace||$3,000,000||20%||$6,000,000||20%||1,900||Sony / Columbia|
|12/12/2018||Once Upon a Deadpool (Limited Release)||n/a||n/a||Fox|
|12/14/2018||The Mule||$15,000,000||7%||$80,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|12/14/2018||Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse||$29,000,000||32%||$130,000,000||44%||Sony / Columbia|
|12/19/2018||Mary Poppins Returns||$40,000,000||$350,000,000||Disney|
|12/21/2018||Welcome to Marwen||n/a||n/a||Universal|
|12/25/2018||Holmes & Watson||$17,000,000||$85,000,000||Sony / Columbia|
|1/4/2019||Escape Room||$13,000,000||$32,000,000||Sony / Columbia|
|1/11/2019||A Dog’s Way Home||$12,000,000||$40,000,000||Sony / Columbia|
|1/11/2019||Perfect Strangers||n/a||n/a||Lionsgate / Pantelion Films|
Contact us for information about subscribing to Boxoffice.com’s suite of forecasting and data services.