Long Range Tracking: ‘Glass’ Could Be the Rare January Blockbuster

This week’s report takes an early look at M. Night Shyamalan’s highly anticipated follow-up to Split and Unbreakable, slated for release on January 18, 2019.

Glass
Opening Weekend Range: $55 – 80 million

PROS:

  • Split was a runaway hit two years ago when it exceeded expectations with a $40 million debut and leggy $138.3 million domestic total on the heels of strong word of mouth and critical reception. The film’s surprise twist connecting it to a previous Shyamalan hit left fans excited for the prospect of the long-discussed follow-up to Unbreakable after nearly two decades of waiting.
  • The return of Bruce Willis and Samuel L. Jackson as their Unbreakable characters, alongside James McAvoy and the tremendous praise he received for his Split performance, gives the sequel serious marquee appeal.
  • Superheroes are hotter than ever at the box office right now, and the promise of a unique, grounded action/thriller through the lens of Shyamalan could be very appealing to audiences looking for a fresh hook from the genre.
  • With plenty of distance between Christmas releases and February’s high profile titles, this is arguably the first and only tentpole release of January 2019.
  • Early Trailer Impact metrics are very encouraging with nearly 78 percent of surveyed audiences indicating interest in seeing the film. That’s comparable to the 82 percent earned by Halloween when it was first tracked six weeks out from release.

CONS:

  • Those unfamiliar with Unbreakable may not be as excited by the connection between that film and Glass, although part of the impressive success of Split was its ability to capture a young adult audience on its own merits without the recognition of the first film in the trilogy.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Release Tracking % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
11/30/2018 The Possession of Hannah Grace $3,000,000 20% $6,000,000 20% 1,900 Sony / Columbia
12/12/2018 Once Upon a Deadpool (Limited Release) n/a n/a Fox
12/14/2018 Mortal Engines $14,000,000 -13% $50,000,000 -10% Universal
12/14/2018 The Mule $15,000,000 7% $80,000,000 Warner Bros.
12/14/2018 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse $29,000,000 32% $130,000,000 44% Sony / Columbia
12/19/2018 Mary Poppins Returns $40,000,000 $350,000,000 Disney
12/21/2018 Aquaman $55,000,000 $200,000,000 Warner Bros.
12/21/2018 Bumblebee $20,000,000 $100,000,000 Paramount
12/21/2018 Second Act $7,000,000 $40,000,000 STX
12/21/2018 Welcome to Marwen n/a n/a Universal
12/25/2018 Holmes & Watson $17,000,000 $85,000,000 Sony / Columbia
12/25/2018 Vice (Wide) n/a $65,000,000 Annapurna
1/4/2019 Eli (2019) n/a n/a Paramount
1/4/2019 Escape Room $13,000,000 $32,000,000 Sony / Columbia
1/11/2019 A Dog’s Way Home $12,000,000 $40,000,000 Sony / Columbia
1/11/2019 Perfect Strangers n/a n/a Lionsgate / Pantelion Films
1/11/2019 Replicas n/a n/a Entertainment Studios
1/11/2019 The Upside $13,000,000 $39,000,000 STX
1/18/2019 Glass $67,000,000 NEW $180,000,000 NEW Universal

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Shawn Robbins

14 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Zus November 21, 2018

    With good reviews I can see Aquaman doing 80M.

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    eliza November 21, 2018

    That low for Second Act, ? I expect at least twice more.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    RussVB November 21, 2018

    Thought the latter trailer for Mortal Engines made it look more interesting (less generic) so wouldn’t be surprised if it does better than that.
    Agree with the Spiderverse upgrade, it looks pretty good.

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Greg November 21, 2018

    Interesting that there’s no tracking info for Welcome to Marwen because, having seen the trailer again today (before Green Book), the plot looks like a mess. We saw Marwencol (the doc) a few years ago, and this movie seems barely related to it. Wondering if the movie will include the “twist”…???

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Taylor November 22, 2018

      And to think that until two months ago, I thought MORTAL ENGINES would be a $200 million earner.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Taylor November 22, 2018

        That wasn’t supposed to be a “reply” to your comment.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Jacen November 22, 2018

          That said, I agree with you. The teaser trailer implied a fascinating universe worthy of visiting. The marketing since then has suggested “less disastrously awful Jupiter Rising” or whatever that flick was called. Alas.

          Reply
  5. Avatar
    Shellyman November 21, 2018

    I can Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse box office opening is going to surprised a lot of people. I’ll say $40-$50 million+ opening.

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    jah November 21, 2018

    With good reviews I can see Aquaman doing 80M.

    Reply
  7. Avatar
    Eugene A Lee November 23, 2018

    Mortal engines looks to be the biggest flop of the year. Sad

    Reply
    • Avatar
      RussVB November 25, 2018

      I nominate Robin Hood for the honor. International opening looks even worse than domestic.
      Also for the “WTF were they thinking” award — Robin Hood in 2018 with a 100 M budget ???

      Reply
  8. Avatar
    kevindee November 23, 2018

    The Mule is going to surprise.
    Spiderman looks like a nice netflix film, while Mortal Engines looks like a mess.

    Reply
  9. Avatar
    Quint November 25, 2018

    The tracking for Mortal Engines looks more terrible every week, the trailers look interesting but if this turns out to be true Universal is going to be scratching their heads as to why they gave the go-ahead to make that movie.
    Still i will watch it, it comes out December 6th in my country so we’ll see.

    For the rest of the predictions I find them to be modest in some cases, I think Aquaman will do better in the end result and The Mule will as well (if reviews will mostly be positive).
    Spider-Man Into The Spider-Verse looks terrible to me and I think it will barely make a 100 million total, it will get crushed between Aquaman , Mary Poppins Returns and Bumblebee.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      RussVB November 28, 2018

      re Spider-Verse, so far at RT —

      TOMATOMETER 100%
      Average Rating: 8.8/10
      Reviews Counted: 37
      Fresh: 37
      Rotten: 0

      Reply

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