Long Range Tracking: Will ‘Halloween’ Slash Genre Records This October?
This week’s report moves deeper into October with an early look at the final tentpole candidate release before holiday season officially begins.
Opening Weekend Range: $50 – 85 million
Longtime fans of the venerable horror franchise are ecstatic about John Carpenter’s return to the series in a significant producing role, as well as the involvement of modern horror master Jason Blum. The return of star Jamie Lee Curtis and strong intrigue around the screenplay from Danny McBride and director David Gordon Green have only added to the general hope that this will not only revive the franchise in a significant way, but also benefit from the wave of smart horror films that have continued to exceed even optimistic expectations at the box office.
As is typical with common-word titles, Twitter metrics will be volatile for the time being — but it is worth noting that the film is outpacing the likes of A Quiet Place and Split thus far, with very positive sentiment scores driven by strong reactions to the first trailer.
The cautionary tale here is that recent 80s-era franchise revivals like Blade Runner 2049 and Alien: Covenant haven’t caught on with younger audiences, a factor worth keeping in mind since this film is a continuation of the original 1978 film that ignores the events of its numerous sequels. The flip-side of that coin is obviously the runaway blockbuster success of last year’s It — which proved to be one of the most decidedly four-quadrant horror films of all-time — but it didn’t require any pre-existing knowledge of the franchise from newcomers.
The titular holiday’s landing in the middle of this film’s second week of release adds another dose of commercial synergy, which could further enhance prospects of appealing beyond the older fan base and capturing the nostalgia zeitgeist.
Reviews will be key to watch for, but with minimal direct competition, intense fan interest, and a strong early ad campaign, Halloween is well-positioned to deliver one of the best debuts ever for a slasher flick — needing only to top the 2009 reboot of Friday the 13th ($40.6 million) for the all-time record in that sub-genre. Adjusted for inflation, the slasher benchmark belongs to Scream 2 ($32.9 million non-adjusted / $66+ million in 2018 prices).
Halloween also has an excellent chance to post the second highest R-rated horror opening of all-time behind It ($123.4 million), needing to surpass Paranormal Activity 3 ($52.6 million) for that feat.
Ultimately, we believe there may yet be more upside in future tracking as interest and awareness grow in the coming weeks.
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Opening||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total||% Chg from Last Week||Estimated Location Count||Distributor|
|8/31/2018||Kin||$5,000,000||$11,000,000||-13%||2,100||Lionsgate / Summit|
|8/31/2018||Searching||n/a||n/a||1,100||Sony / Screen Gems|
|9/7/2018||God Bless the Broken Road||$1,500,000||$3,750,000||750||Freestyle Releasing|
|9/7/2018||The Nun||$39,000,000||$93,000,000||3,500||Warner Bros. / New Line|
|9/14/2018||The Predator (2018)||$30,000,000||7%||$66,000,000||2%||Fox|
|9/14/2018||A Simple Favor||$14,000,000||$40,000,000||Lionsgate|
|9/14/2018||Unbroken: Path to Redemption||$2,000,000||$4,900,000||Pure Flix|
|9/14/2018||White Boy Rick||$10,000,000||33%||$32,000,000||33%||Sony / Studio 8|
|9/21/2018||The House with a Clock In Its Walls||$24,000,000||$79,000,000||Universal|
|9/21/2018||Life Itself||n/a||n/a||Amazon Studios|
|9/28/2018||Hell Fest||$9,500,000||$22,000,000||Lionsgate / CBS Films|
|9/28/2018||Little Women (2018)||n/a||n/a||Pinnacle Peak|
|9/28/2018||Night School (2018)||$17,500,000||$55,000,000||Universal|
|10/5/2018||A Star Is Born||$30,000,000||$140,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|10/5/2018||Venom (2018)||$65,000,000||$135,000,000||Sony / Columbia|
|10/12/2018||Bad Times at the El Royale||$13,000,000||$40,000,000||Fox|
|10/12/2018||Goosebumps: Haunted Halloween||$14,000,000||$45,000,000||Sony / Columbia|
|10/19/2018||The Hate U Give||n/a||n/a||Fox|
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