Long Range Tracking: Will ‘Halloween’ Slash Genre Records This October?

This week’s report moves deeper into October with an early look at the final tentpole candidate release before holiday season officially begins.

Halloween (2018)
Opening Weekend Range: $50 – 85 million

Longtime fans of the venerable horror franchise are ecstatic about John Carpenter’s return to the series in a significant producing role, as well as the involvement of modern horror master Jason Blum. The return of star Jamie Lee Curtis and strong intrigue around the screenplay from Danny McBride and director David Gordon Green have only added to the general hope that this will not only revive the franchise in a significant way, but also benefit from the wave of smart horror films that have continued to exceed even optimistic expectations at the box office.

As is typical with common-word titles, Twitter metrics will be volatile for the time being — but it is worth noting that the film is outpacing the likes of A Quiet Place and Split thus far, with very positive sentiment scores driven by strong reactions to the first trailer.

The cautionary tale here is that recent 80s-era franchise revivals like Blade Runner 2049 and Alien: Covenant haven’t caught on with younger audiences, a factor worth keeping in mind since this film is a continuation of the original 1978 film that ignores the events of its numerous sequels. The flip-side of that coin is obviously the runaway blockbuster success of last year’s It — which proved to be one of the most decidedly four-quadrant horror films of all-time — but it didn’t require any pre-existing knowledge of the franchise from newcomers.

The titular holiday’s landing in the middle of this film’s second week of release adds another dose of commercial synergy, which could further enhance prospects of appealing beyond the older fan base and capturing the nostalgia zeitgeist.

Reviews will be key to watch for, but with minimal direct competition, intense fan interest, and a strong early ad campaign, Halloween is well-positioned to deliver one of the best debuts ever for a slasher flick — needing only to top the 2009 reboot of Friday the 13th ($40.6 million) for the all-time record in that sub-genre. Adjusted for inflation, the slasher benchmark belongs to Scream 2 ($32.9 million non-adjusted / $66+ million in 2018 prices).

Halloween also has an excellent chance to post the second highest R-rated horror opening of all-time behind It ($123.4 million), needing to surpass Paranormal Activity 3 ($52.6 million) for that feat.

Ultimately, we believe there may yet be more upside in future tracking as interest and awareness grow in the coming weeks.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
8/29/2018 Operation Finale $6,750,000 13% $21,300,000 12% 1,800 MGM
8/31/2018 Kin $5,000,000 $11,000,000 -13% 2,100 Lionsgate / Summit
8/31/2018 Searching n/a n/a 1,100 Sony / Screen Gems
8/31/2018 Ya Veremos n/a n/a 350 Pantelion
9/7/2018 God Bless the Broken Road $1,500,000 $3,750,000 750 Freestyle Releasing
9/7/2018 The Nun $39,000,000 $93,000,000 3,500 Warner Bros. / New Line
9/7/2018 Peppermint $13,000,000 8% $34,000,000 2% 3,200 STX Entertainment
9/14/2018 The Predator (2018) $30,000,000 7% $66,000,000 2% Fox
9/14/2018 A Simple Favor $14,000,000 $40,000,000 Lionsgate
9/14/2018 Unbroken: Path to Redemption $2,000,000 $4,900,000 Pure Flix
9/14/2018 White Boy Rick $10,000,000 33% $32,000,000 33% Sony / Studio 8
9/21/2018 Fahrenheit 11/9 n/a n/a Briarcliff
9/21/2018 The House with a Clock In Its Walls $24,000,000 $79,000,000 Universal
9/21/2018 Life Itself n/a n/a Amazon Studios
9/28/2018 Hell Fest $9,500,000 $22,000,000 Lionsgate / CBS Films
9/28/2018 Little Women (2018) n/a n/a Pinnacle Peak
9/28/2018 Night School (2018) $17,500,000 $55,000,000 Universal
9/28/2018 Smallfoot $23,000,000 $80,000,000 Warner Bros.
10/5/2018 A Star Is Born $30,000,000 $140,000,000 Warner Bros.
10/5/2018 Venom (2018) $65,000,000 $135,000,000 Sony / Columbia
10/12/2018 Bad Times at the El Royale $13,000,000 $40,000,000 Fox
10/12/2018 First Man $20,000,000 $90,000,000 Universal
10/12/2018 Goosebumps: Haunted Halloween $14,000,000 $45,000,000 Sony / Columbia
10/19/2018 Halloween (2018) $60,000,000 NEW $142,000,000 NEW Universal
10/19/2018 The Hate U Give n/a n/a Fox
10/19/2018 Serenity (2018) n/a n/a Aviron

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Shawn Robbins

10 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Thomas Stidman August 24, 2018

    Halloween has been divisive in the trailer and I think the $60 million amount is way too high. I think this plays closer to the Nun and is about $30-40 million for an opening. I also think Predator’s finishing number is too low at $66 million. There is a decent amount of nostalgia for Predator and I think it ends up closer to $80 million.

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Skyler Kwok August 24, 2018

    Sounds about right for Halloween. Tbh, I’m more hyped for this movie than the Venom movie, and if Venom doesn’t do too well its first weekend and the week after, then Halloween might be able to take no 1 at the box office and cause Venom to lose even more money if Halloween is a better movie

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Kissan August 24, 2018

    Finally! I could totally see Halloween OW at around $60M-$70M and around $140M-$150M domestically, I just hope the movie gets some real good reviews. Us horror fans need this movie to do well!

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Steve August 24, 2018

    I think your prediction for Halloween is way too high. Just by judging the first trailer something feels off to me ! it dosen’t seem to have the same appeal as the other Halloween movies. It will make more then the two Rob Zombie movies but it will still disappoint. I’m gonna say an opening weekend of 45 million and an overall total of 90 million.

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    Adrian August 24, 2018

    U people are all mental. Halloween will be the best movie of the year opening weekend estimate 90 to 150 mil easily ive followed this franchise 40 years. Watch the people watching the trailor.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Delle September 01, 2018

      @Adrian – Lol whew, a $150 million opening is overly ambitious. You might want to lay off the drugs and liquor buddy lol. I do think this site could be on to something with their $60m opening weekend prediction though, If the buzz is strong and the reviews are good going it’s opening I could see “Halloween” opening somewhere between $50-$70m.

      Reply
  6. Avatar
    Greg August 24, 2018

    Every shot of Jamie Lee Curtis (in the trailer) elevates the proceedings, giving Laurie Strode a gravitas no previous version had. To me, she’s more like Sarah Connor than the old Laurie Strode…which looks absolutely fantastic.

    Reply
  7. Avatar
    thedude3445 August 25, 2018

    Adjusted for ticket price inflation, H20 had a $31 million opening weekend and ended up with $108 million domestic. If the new Halloween can match that with a presumably-lower budget, it’s a solid success. If it can, like this long-range prediction states, actually DOUBLE that, that’ll be incredible!

    Reply
  8. Avatar
    Jimmy Washington October 23, 2018

    I’m a big horror fan from a small town in Texas I just people will give John C. His respect for making a another Halloween movie period. Also the others movies that could even give Halloween a run for it’s movie is Vemon I hope this movie makes more money than the first Halloween that came out in 1978.

    Reply
  9. Avatar
    David A Martin October 24, 2018

    Well dell i dont drink or do drugs its not even halloween. The movie has crushed box office records. Its at 82 mil now and that just in the u. s mabey u should have paid more attention to the hype o yea, IT WILL MAKE 120 165 world wide. Like i said ive folled the franchise sice i was 11 in 78 this one is easily the 2nd best and the sequel will do better.

    Reply

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