Long Range Tracking: ‘The Happytime Murders’ & ‘Slender Man’; ‘Ant-Man and the Wasp,’ ‘Equalizer 2,’ & ‘Skyscraper’ Updates
This week’s report takes a first look at several releases scheduled for August 24, along with updates on key July titles.
Ant-Man and the Wasp
Opening Weekend Range: $70 – 90 million (up from $65-85M)
Social media and general tracking footprints continue to pace slightly behind Doctor Strange and Thor: The Dark World, but remain consistent in terms of the film’s overall positive outlook now that early critics’ reviews suggest another crowd-pleaser.
Opening Weekend Range: $30 – 50 million (down from $40-60M)
A myriad of factors could still develop to help this reach the optimistic end of expectations, but the slew of male-targeted films in mid-to-late July skews models across the board. Dwayne Johnson’s latest effects-driven actioner is thus far trending more closely to Rampage than San Andreas. Given the lack of any built-in fan base (other than Johnson’s own audience), we’re not ruling a late pop in buzz closer to release.
Opening Weekend Range: $18 – 28 million (up from $15-25M)
Tracking has improved in recent weeks, but much like Skyscraper, a major holiday and a handful of films aiming for a similar audience next month could make tracking more volatile on this one. Denzel Washington’s reliable star power will be a key factor.
Opening Weekend Range: $1.5 – 5 million
Early trends for this tween-driven film are comparable to past titles like Max Steel and Middle School.
The Happytime Murders
Opening Weekend Range: $14 – 24 million (first tracking)
Strong trailer reactions represent the bulk of optimism behind this R-rated Muppet comedy. Melissa McCarthy gives the film some star power to rely on, although her usual fan base isn’t likely to be in this film’s wheelhouse. Fans of Sausage Party and Team America: World Police will be the target here, and pre-release reviews will be important.
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 25 million (first tracking)
The horror genre has a knack for consistent success in recent years, and early trends suggest this may be the next late summer sleeper for the genre. A PG-13 rating could go a long way toward increasing expectations. For now, a run similar to Lights Out or Don’t Breathe is on the table.
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Opening||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total||% Chg from Last Week||Estimated Location Count||Distributor|
|7/4/2018||The First Purge||$22,000,000||5%||$60,000,000||3%||3,000||Universal|
|7/6/2018||Ant-Man and the Wasp||$77,000,000||$205,000,000||4,100||Disney / Marvel|
|7/13/2018||Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation||$45,000,000||$155,000,000||3,700||Sony / Columbia|
|7/20/2018||The Equalizer 2||$23,000,000||15%||$67,000,000||15%||Sony / Columbia|
|7/20/2018||Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!||$33,000,000||$105,000,000||Universal|
|7/20/2018||Unfriended: Dark Web||$7,500,000||$15,000,000||OTL Releasing / BH Tilt|
|7/27/2018||Mission: Impossible – Fallout||$65,000,000||$200,000,000||Paramount|
|7/27/2018||Teen Titans Go! to the Movies||$16,000,000||$50,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|8/3/2018||Disney’s Christopher Robin||$30,000,000||$110,000,000||Disney|
|8/3/2018||The Darkest Minds||$12,000,000||$38,000,000||Fox|
|8/3/2018||Searching||n/a||n/a||Sony / Screen Gems|
|8/3/2018||The Spy Who Dumped Me||$17,000,000||$63,000,000||Lionsgate|
|8/10/2018||Dog Days||n/a||n/a||LD Entertainment|
|8/10/2018||The Meg||$14,000,000||$37,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|8/15/2018||Crazy Rich Asians||$13,000,000||$42,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|8/17/2018||Alpha||$8,500,000||$24,000,000||Sony / Studio 8|
|8/24/2018||The Happytime Murders||$18,000,000||NEW||$47,000,000||NEW||STX|
|8/24/2018||Slender Man||$19,000,000||NEW||$51,000,000||NEW||Sony / Screen Gems|