Long Range Tracking: ‘Hell Fest,’ ‘Night School,’ & ‘Smallfoot’; ‘The Meg’ Update

This week’s report takes an early look at the final weekend of September, currently slated for a trio of new releases from major studios.

Hell Fest
Opening Weekend Range: $6 – 12 million

As is the case with most original horror films, it’s too early to gauge the full potential of this title — particularly with the slew of genre titles set for release this fall. The film’s first trailer sparked respectable Twitter activity upon its release, but stiff genre competition in October will be something to watch for.

Night School
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 20 million

Kevin Hart and rising star Tiffany Haddish should be driving forces in this comedy from producer Will Packer, whose resume includes a long list of hits in recent years — including last year’s Girls Trip and fellow Hart films like the Ride Along series, The Wedding Ringer, and the Think Like a Man series.

Smallfoot
Opening Weekend Range: $20 – 25 million

Early social media growth is encouraging for what will be the first all-animated release in two-and-a-half months. An ensemble voice cast led by Channing Tatum and Zendaya will further enhance appeal to families with young kids. Competition from The House With A Clock In Its Walls and October’s Goosebumps: Haunted Halloween will be important factors, but the film otherwise has no direct run-in with animated films until November’s The Grinch.

Updated 3-Day Opening Ranges

Dog Days: $3 – 5.5 million
The Meg: $17 – 26 million
Slender Man: $15 – 25 million
Crazy Rich Asians: $12 – 17 million
Alpha: $5 – 10 million
Mile 22: $ 15 – 24 million
A.X.L.: $1 – 4 million

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
8/8/2018 Dog Days $4,000,000 -11% $13,000,000 n/a LD Entertainment
8/10/2018 BlacKkKlansman n/a n/a 1,500 Focus Features
8/10/2018 The Meg $23,500,000 62% $60,000,000 58% 3,900 Warner Bros.
8/10/2018 Slender Man $15,500,000 -26% $40,000,000 -27% 2,000 Sony / Screen Gems
8/15/2018 Crazy Rich Asians $13,000,000 $42,000,000 2,600 Warner Bros.
8/17/2018 Alpha $8,000,000 $22,600,000 2,400 Sony / Studio 8
8/17/2018 Mile 22 $17,000,000 6% $52,000,000 4% 2,900 STX
8/24/2018 A.X.L. $1,750,000 -42% $4,400,000 -42% Global Road
8/24/2018 The Happytime Murders $15,500,000 $40,500,000 STX
8/24/2018 Searching n/a n/a Sony / Screen Gems
8/29/2018 Operation Finale n/a n/a MGM
8/31/2018 Kin n/a n/a Lionsgate / Summit
8/31/2018 Ya Veremos n/a n/a Pantelion
9/7/2018 God Bless the Broken Road n/a n/a Freestyle Releasing
9/7/2018 The Nun $40,000,000 $96,000,000 Warner Bros. / New Line
9/7/2018 Peppermint $12,000,000 $33,500,000 STX Entertainment
9/14/2018 The Predator (2018) $28,000,000 $65,000,000 Fox
9/14/2018 A Simple Favor $14,000,000 $40,000,000 Lionsgate
9/14/2018 Unbroken: Path to Redemption $2,000,000 $4,900,000 Pure Flix
9/14/2018 White Boy Rick $7,500,000 $24,000,000 Sony / Studio 8
9/21/2018 Fahrenheit 11/9 n/a n/a Briarcliff
9/21/2018 The House with a Clock In Its Walls $24,000,000 $79,000,000 Universal
9/21/2018 Life Itself n/a n/a Amazon Studios
9/28/2018 Hell Fest $9,500,000 NEW $22,000,000 NEW Lionsgate / CBS Films
9/28/2018 Little Women (2018) n/a n/a Pure Flix
9/28/2018 Night School (2018) $17,500,000 NEW $55,000,000 NEW Universal
9/28/2018 Smallfoot $23,000,000 NEW $80,000,000 NEW Warner Bros.

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Shawn Robbins

7 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Nd August 03, 2018

    Can wait to see dog days doing much better than « 4 millions »….

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Arek August 03, 2018

    Next week Venom Forecast 😉 I think 45 Ow 130 D and 510 WW

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Darren James August 04, 2018

    Finally you’ve updated that ridiculous The Meg forecast!! Still a tad low though

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Tom Stidman August 04, 2018

    I think that the Meg does $30 plus million especially if it gets good reviews. I’m jonesing for a Jason Statham flick with a shark and the rest of the performances look entertaining in the trailers.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jacen August 04, 2018

      Good reviews are going to be the key here, I think. People could be up to gnaw on some late-summer cheese, but it needs to be fresh and tasty cheese that everyone can enjoy–sharp cheddar, perhaps. If the reviews come out an it’s stale limburger, then people are going to look at The Meg as akin to Snakes on a Plane and skip it.

      Reply
  5. Avatar
    Chris Burge August 04, 2018

    I will be surprised if Meg makes more than $40M

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    hamdi August 04, 2018

    Meg opening 28 M
    Total 75-80 M

    Reply

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