Long Range Tracking: ‘Holmes & Watson’ & ‘Vice’

This week’s report briefly focuses on the final weekend of 2018, currently slated with one new release and one wide expansion — both of which go nationwide earlier in the week on Christmas Day (Tuesday, December 25).

Holmes & Watson
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 25 million

The reuniting of Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly (Talladega NightsStep Brothers) should bring back a lot of their fans. As one of the few comedies in the market around this time of year, there should be enough room for this send-up of the classic property to succeed on some level. Our primary concern at this stage is the film’s lukewarm social media growth and the fact that family appeal probably won’t be as widespread as it was for Ferrell’s Daddy’s Home franchise.

Opening Weekend Range: n/a

We’re currently holding off on opening weekend tracking given the film’s planned staggered release from distributor Annapurna. That being said, the film and its first trailer have already sparked Oscar buzz thanks to an all-star ensemble led by Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Steve Carell, and Sam Rockwell. As director Adam McKay’s follow-up to The Big Short, there’s reason to believe this could attract a similar audience as that 2015 award contender — although the more direct political aspects here might limit the interest of casual moviegoers compared to Short. Reviews and word of mouth will be key factors as forecasts evolve in the weeks ahead.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Release Tracking % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
11/9/2018 The Girl in the Spider’s Web $12,000,000 -8% $35,000,000 -8% 3,000 Sony / Columbia
11/9/2018 Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch $69,000,000 $290,000,000 4,000 Universal
11/9/2018 Overlord $8,000,000 -11% $22,000,000 -12% 2,500 Paramount
11/16/2018 Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald $73,000,000 -3% $216,000,000 -3% 4,100 Warner Bros.
11/16/2018 Instant Family $18,000,000 $100,000,000 NEW 3,000 Paramount
11/16/2018 Widows $16,500,000 $65,000,000 3,000 Fox
11/21/2018 Creed II $30,000,000 30% $100,000,000 25% MGM
11/21/2018 Ralph Breaks the Internet $50,000,000 $200,000,000 Disney
11/21/2018 Robin Hood $10,000,000 5% $30,000,000 15% Lionsgate / Summit
11/21/2018 Green Book (Wide Expansion) n/a n/a Universal
11/30/2018 The Possession of Hannah Grace n/a n/a Sony / Columbia
12/7/2018 The Silence n/a n/a Global Road
12/14/2018 Mortal Engines $16,000,000 $55,000,000 Universal
12/14/2018 The Mule $14,000,000 $80,000,000 Warner Bros.
12/14/2018 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse $22,000,000 $90,000,000 Sony / Columbia
12/19/2018 Mary Poppins Returns $40,000,000 $350,000,000 Disney
12/21/2018 Aquaman $45,000,000 $175,000,000 Warner Bros.
12/21/2018 Bumblebee $20,000,000 $100,000,000 Paramount
12/21/2018 Second Act $7,000,000 $40,000,000 STX
12/21/2018 Untitled Deadpool Movie n/a n/a Fox
12/21/2018 Welcome to Marwen n/a n/a Universal
12/25/2018 Holmes & Watson $17,000,000 NEW $85,000,000 NEW Sony / Columbia
12/25/2018 Vice (Wide) n/a $65,000,000 NEW Annapurna

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Shawn Robbins


  1. Avatar
    Rob Holloway November 02, 2018

    Instant Family with a multiple of over 5.5? Opening with $18 and totally $100

  2. Avatar
    Alex Delvecchio November 03, 2018

    Underselling Creed and Aquaman something fierce I feel….basically saying Aquaman will only do a little more than half of Venom opening weekend, have to figure the ceiling is higher.

    • Avatar
      Thedude3445 November 05, 2018

      Christmas movies, aside from Star Wars in the past three years, always open much lower than any other time of the year but have massive legs. I think every single Christmas release except for Mary Poppins and possibly The Mule are currently a bit too conservative in their predictions, but their opening weekends probably won’t shoot up too much higher than they are tracking at right now.

  3. Avatar
    Brendan Prior November 04, 2018

    So you’re telling me that Instant Family is going to make more money than Into The Spider Verse and just as much as Bumblebee? This is all messed up and I’m pretty sure everyone knows that

  4. Avatar
    Whodunit November 04, 2018

    I think the numbers for Aquaman and Mary Poppins are a bit low. I think you can reasonably tack on 20 to 40 million to their opening weekend numbers.

    You bumped up the number for Creed. I still think it will hit 35-40 million.

  5. Avatar
    Paulo Arós (Brazil) November 06, 2018

    It makes no sense Deadpool, Aquaman, Mary Poppins and Bumblebee debuting on the same weekend!

    Smaller box office for them …

  6. Avatar
    DaveS November 06, 2018

    Look at Justice League to measure Aquaman and it is right on.


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