Long Range Tracking: ‘The Incredibles 2’

This week’s long range report focuses on what will likely be the summer’s biggest animated tentpole: Pixar’s The Incredibles 2.

Writer/director Brad Bird returns with the long-awaited sequel, which has been among the most in demand by Pixar fans since the original film’s run in late 2004. That pic’s $70.5 million opening weekend and $261.4 million domestic haul were Pixar’s best and second best behind Finding Nemo, respectively, at the time.

The sequel’s trailers have picked up where the original’s goodwill left off, generating strong reactions across social media. In fact, Incredibles 2‘s social footprint thus far is trending ahead of Monsters University and, in some aspects, even Finding Dory.

While the original film didn’t quite have the staying power of typical Pixar films, that can arguably be chalked up to the fact that it was ahead of its time. Not only was it the first Pixar title to star human characters, it also opened before the box office boom of superhero films. That sub-genre has gone on to dominate the market over the past decade, spearheaded in recent years by Disney’s own Marvel universe. Pixar itself has since produced massively successful films led by human characters in the likes of Inside OutUpBraveCoco, and Ratatouille.

For Incredibles‘ own part, it has since gone on to become a beloved staple of family movie libraries around the world. The shift of this film’s focus to the family matriarch — Elastigirl (aka Helen Parr, voiced by Holly Hunter) — could serve to further strengthen the film’s appeal among mothers and daughters.

Last but not least, this summer is fairly limited on animated titles boasting blockbuster potential. Only July’s Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation will provide direct competition in the medium, meaning Incredibles 2 has a wide open path to success if reviews and word of mouth deliver at typical Pixar standards.

Also opening on June 15 will be Warner Bros.’ Tag and Sony’s Superfly, but we’re withholding public forecasts for the latter at this time. Check our initial tracking for The Incredibles 2 and Tag in the table below.

Avengers: Infinity War Tracking Update

  • Marvel’s ten-year culmination remains poised for a historic debut next week. The film’s Twitter footprint now more than doubles that of Avengers: Age of Ultron and remains ahead of Star Wars: The Last Jedi. Traditional tracking remains at a stellar pace thanks partly to awareness metrics in line with those of Black Panther and Last Jedi. Marketing has delivered the kind of “finale factor” hype only comparable to the biggest of past film franchise finales, increasing the possibility of reaching/breaking Star Wars: The Force Awakens‘ all-time opening weekend record.

At this time, Boxoffice’s official tracking for the next Marvel tentpole is:

Domestic Opening Weekend: $235 million – $255 million
Domestic Total Gross: $565 million – $650 million

Final forecasts to follow next week ahead of opening weekend.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
4/27/2018 Avengers: Infinity War $235,000,000 $600,000,000 4,200 Disney / Marvel
5/4/2018 Bad Samaritan n/a n/a n/a Electric Entertainment
5/4/2018 Overboard $14,000,000 $39,000,000 1,200 Lionsgate / Pantelion
5/4/2018 Tully n/a n/a n/a Focus Features
5/11/2018 Breaking In $13,000,000 -7% $34,800,000 -7% Universal
5/11/2018 Life of the Party $21,000,000 $54,000,000 Warner Bros. / New Line
5/18/2018 Book Club $6,000,000 $19,000,000 Paramount
5/18/2018 Deadpool 2 $100,000,000 $242,000,000 Fox
5/18/2018 Show Dogs $8,000,000 $25,000,000 Global Road Films
5/25/2018 Solo: A Star Wars Story $150,000,000 $390,000,000 Disney
6/1/2018 Action Point $17,000,000 $42,500,000 Paramount
6/1/2018 Adrift $10,000,000 $34,000,000 STXfilms
6/1/2018 Upgrade n/a n/a OTL Releasing / BH Tilt
6/8/2018 Hereditary n/a n/a A24
6/8/2018 Hotel Artemis n/a n/a Global Road Films
6/8/2018 Ocean’s 8 $42,000,000 $145,000,000 Warner Bros.
6/15/2018 The Incredibles 2 $110,000,000 NEW $395,000,000 NEW Disney / Pixar
6/15/2018 Superfly n/a NEW n/a NEW Sony
6/15/2018 Tag $13,000,000 NEW $43,000,000 NEW Warner Bros.
Shawn Robbins

25 Comments

  1. Avatar
    BL April 20, 2018

    Tag will be a big hit I expect a 20 million debut and a 75-100 million finish, I think this could be a hilarious comedy and will generate fantastic word of mouth. Also I think Incredibles will finish around 390 like it’s said here but will open bigger around 140

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Alessio Pasquali April 20, 2018

    $110M is too low of an opening weekend projection for Incredibles 2, especially given the trailer views it has on YouTube and the positive response they have compared to Jurassic World 2’s trailers. I’m gonna say it does twice that prediction and do a $200-220M OW.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Shaggy April 20, 2018

      220 million is way too OP. Maybe 150/525 is the best idea if reviews are the normal Pixar 95%+.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Alessio Pasquali April 21, 2018

        Fair enough, Shaggy.

        Reply
    • Avatar
      Delfra April 21, 2018

      No way is “In Incredibles 2” is opening at $200-$220. I k ow you’re excited but slow down a d stop being delisional, this isn’t “Infinity War” dude. I could see it opening as high as $130-$150 million.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Stevenson April 21, 2018

      That’s an absolutely insane opening weekend prediction Alessio. I have no idea how you come up with that number other than not knowing what you are talking about. Biggest opening weekend ever for an animated film is Finding Dory which is a little over $135 mil. Animated films open less, but have much longer runs. Even $150 mil isn’t going to happen.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Luke April 23, 2018

        110 – 125 oppening, tops

        Reply
    • Avatar
      DangerS April 21, 2018

      I feel like Toy Story 4 will probably be the first animated movie to open with over $200M, but I do think Incredibles 2 will break the current record for now.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Alessio Pasquali April 21, 2018

        We’ll see about Toy Story 4

        Reply
  3. Avatar
    Floor April 21, 2018

    You guys are gravely underestimating Infinity War, Deadpool and The Incredibles, while overestimating Solo.
    Infinity War will probably end up with 700million at the box office. The Incredibles should do numbers more like Finding Dory. Deadpool will do a lot better than Solo. It will make well over 300million, while Solo will struggle to get 200million

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Alessio Pasquali April 21, 2018

      We’ll see about it Solo will struggle once tickets go on sale for preorder on May 4th (Star Wars Day).

      Reply
  4. Avatar
    DangerS April 21, 2018

    Too low on Incredibles 2. It will easily break Finding Dory’s record for biggest animated movie OW. Might as well open bigger than BATB to have the biggest OW for a G/PG film ever. I’m predicting over $160M OW and over $570M total.
    Also, Deadpool 2 is breaking pre-sales records, so you should probably update your prediction.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Alessio Pasquali April 21, 2018

      Soon Solo will break ticket presales records thanks to its ticket presales launching on Star Wars Day May 4th.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Pete April 21, 2018

        don’t Thinks so. Bad buzz all around this turkey. The dude that they plucked to play HAN can’t act. Look closely at the trailers – can’t act. Bad reviews will sink this dog quicker than quick. Sad but Disney has done nothing but destroy the Star Wars Franchise. Bring back George. Please.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Alessio Pasquali April 21, 2018

          We’ll see. The recent trailer made better buzz than the last trailer. BTW, where have I heard this person can’t act before? Oh yeah. Gal Gadot as Wonder Woman. Proved everyone wrong. Alden Ehrenreich will do the same, especially with reactions saying Solo is surprisingly good and Alden is decent as young Han Solo.

          Reply
        • Avatar
          Alessio Pasquali April 21, 2018

          Never bet against Star Wars.

          Reply
        • Avatar
          Kt April 22, 2018

          Bring back George? Are you just trolling or are you just not familiar with Star Wars? Thanks for the laugh though, always funny to see what some people come up with.

          Reply
          • Avatar
            Jacen April 24, 2018

            He’s a troll. It’s the usual broad 7th-grader nonsense: can’t act, it sucks, Disney destroyed it, George destroyed it, turkey, bomb, whine, complain, whine. Sad to see that we have one infesting this site.

    • Avatar
      Delfra April 21, 2018

      That’s possible, but you’te prediction on Toy Story 4 is too much. I doubt any animated film will ever open to $200 million, i don’t think you really know how hard it is for a film to open to $200 million it’s opening weekend. You see a few films open to $200 it’s opening weekend and all of a sudden think anu popular movie can do it, not so.

      Reply
  5. Avatar
    JWMontgomery April 21, 2018

    Incredibles will make more than that. So will Avengers. I’d expect Avengers to hit the biggest opening of all time and Incredibles the biggest animated opening of all time.

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    Tom Stidman April 21, 2018

    I think the opening is in line with my expectations, but it ends up at $420-440 million. It’s going to have massive mid-week draw with the kids out of school at that point.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Fred April 21, 2018

      I could see Incredibles 2 reaching that amount, in fact i wouldn’t surprised if it finished as the second biggest domestic grossing film of the summer behind Infinity War.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        David Howell April 22, 2018

        Pixar June releases in the post-Aurora/Thursday preview era, opening / total:

        2017, Cars 3 – $53.7m / $152.9m (2.8x multiple)
        2016, Finding Dory – $135.1m / $486.3m (3.6x)
        2015, Inside Out – $90.4m / $356.5m (3.9x)
        2013, Monsters University – $82.4m / $268.5m (3.3x)

        BOP’s prediction for Incredibles 2: $110m / $395m (3.6x). In other words, it’s predicting a slightly smaller Dory, or a slightly more frontloaded Inside Out (which has an inflation-adjusted cume very close to $395m). Both of those sound reasonable, but the emphasis on Elastigirl could play well with the slower-burning older female audiences that propelled Wonder Woman to a 4x multiple.

        However, I think it will be a bit more frontloaded than… well, certainly than Inside Out, just because of how remarkably clear an opening weekend it has. If these numbers hold out, there’s probably not going to be another $25m weekend in the marketplace against Incredibles 2. That’s somewhat in line with Dory (#2 that weekend was Central Intelligence at $35.5m but there was only one other movie in eight figures), but way, *way* out of line with Inside Out (which faced the second weekend of Jurassic World and thus became the first Pixar movie not to debut at #1!). Of course, Inside Out was new IP, which also puts a lid on the opening.

        $110m/$395m for Incredibles 2 doesn’t sound wrong at this point. The first movie did business similar to, but a bit less than, Nemo. Only appropriate that the sequel follows that trend by doing not-quite-Dory business.

        Reply
  7. Avatar
    Miguel Ángel Pérez April 25, 2018

    110M for The Incredibles 2 seems incredibly low. I’m expecting something between 150-160M and a final gross around 400M.

    Also, isn’t Deadpool way too low? It will very probably have short legs (because of all the competition) but 100M for its opening weekend sounds kinda low.

    Reply
  8. Avatar
    miraclemet April 25, 2018

    Here’s my I2 question… Assuming it gets at least the same open ($135m) as Finding Dory (another movie with a long lapse between sequels, also opening June) There was a 13 year gap for Dory, and Nemo skewed younger than Incredibles. Does Incredibles pull more adults w/o kids than Dory (I say yes)? Im thinking of the 12 year old who saw Incredibles going back to see I2 as a 25-26 year old. Not sure they went to see Dory opening weekend… (wanna check the audience atributes).

    Reply

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