Long Range Tracking: ‘Incredibles 2’ Builds Momentum; Early ‘Equalizer 2’ & ‘Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!’ Tracking

This week’s report focuses on the summer’s next tentpole opener on June 15, as well as two counter-programmers set for release on July 20.

The Incredibles 2
Opening Weekend Range: $125 – 145 million

Pixar’s long-awaited sequel continues to build major momentum ahead of its release on Father’s Day weekend three weeks from now. Presales and traditional tracking show the film making gains on the pace of Finding Dory‘s metrics two summers ago, which opened to $135.1 million — the standing record for an animated movie. Social media buzz for Incredibles 2 is very healthy at this stage, although its Twitter footprint is well behind Dory while between that of Inside Out and Minions at comparable points.

At this stage, cracking Dory‘s animated record is certainly on the table, although we’ll have a stronger idea on the likelihood of that in the coming weeks once the crowded Memorial Day market settles. Animated films — even sequels — tend to be more about long-term playability than massive debuts, but anything is possible for this one given its pent-up demand and the landscape devoid of major animated titles in recent months.

The Equalizer 2
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 25 million

Denzel Washington will drive the majority of interest in this sequel to his 2014 hit adaptation, although the move from fall to a summer release positions it directly against fellow star-driven action films Skyscraper and Mission: Impossible – Fallout. Some diminished returns compared to the predecessor’s $34.1 million debut should be expected as a result of its current positioning and interest levels.

Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!
Opening Weekend Range: $25 – 35 million

Ten years after the smashing success of the original musical’s $27.8 million bow and $144.1 million domestic run, the entire cast (plus new some new faces) return in this sequel that has had fans buzzing across social media for months. As the only wide release in July aimed predominantly at women, this opens with minimal direct competition, significant goodwill from the first film’s multi-generational fan base, and in a time where musicals have been hot at the box office lately. It wouldn’t be shocking if this film continues tracking upward as we approach mid-July.

Action Point
Opening Weekend Range: $5 – 12 million

Unfortunately, social media buzz for the comedy isn’t sparking as release approaches, coming in similar to the trends posted by Popstar when it opened in early June two years ago. Paramount announced the film will open in fewer theaters than we previously expected (the last three Jackass films opened in 3,000 locations), further trimming Boxoffice’s current tracking for next weekend.

 

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
6/1/2018 Action Point $6,000,000 -50% $15,000,000 -50% 2,000 Paramount
6/1/2018 Adrift $11,000,000 10% $37,500,000 10% 2,900 STXfilms
6/1/2018 Upgrade $2,500,000 -17% $5,500,000 -27% 1,400 OTL Releasing / BH Tilt
6/8/2018 Hereditary n/a n/a n/a A24
6/8/2018 Hotel Artemis n/a n/a n/a Global Road
6/8/2018 Ocean’s 8 $45,000,000 7% $155,000,000 7% 3,600 Warner Bros.
6/15/2018 The Incredibles 2 $125,000,000 9% $425,000,000 8% Disney / Pixar
6/15/2018 Superfly $8,000,000 NEW $20,000,000 NEW Sony
6/15/2018 Tag $13,000,000 $43,000,000 Warner Bros.
6/22/2018 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom $130,000,000 $327,500,000 Universal
6/29/2018 The Hustle n/a n/a Mirror Films / MGM
6/29/2018 Sanju n/a n/a Fox
6/29/2018 Sicario: Day of the Soldado $15,000,000 $39,000,000 Sony / Columbia
6/29/2018 Uncle Drew $16,500,000 $45,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit
7/4/2018 The First Purge $20,000,000 $55,000,000 Universal
7/6/2018 Ant-Man and the Wasp $84,000,000 $225,000,000 Disney / Marvel
7/13/2018 Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation $45,000,000 $155,000,000 Sony / Columbia
7/13/2018 Skyscraper $44,000,000 $128,000,000 Universal
7/20/2018 The Equalizer 2 $20,000,000 NEW $58,000,000 NEW Sony / Columbia
7/20/2018 Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! $33,000,000 NEW $105,000,000 NEW Universal
7/20/2018 Unfriended: Dark Web n/a n/a Universal
Shawn Robbins

6 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Didj May 26, 2018

    Like before, I think you’re too soft on Jurassic World fallen Kingdom. Early buzz says it’s better than the predecessor and dinosaurs always sell huge. Remember how much analysts low balled the first Jurassic World

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Iz May 26, 2018

    Why are u guys not predicting hereditary?

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Greg May 27, 2018

    You know that fake smile you put on when passing someone you don’t know (in a restaurant, at work)? The one where you pretty much have to ackowledge their presence in the world, and don’t want to be thought of as rude? Isn’t that the smile those two are working in Mamma Mia still above? That’s exactly how I feel about a Mamma Mia sequel.

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Rob May 28, 2018

    @Greg. Now that was funny. I’m not a fan of musicals, at all. I got free tickets to see “Mamma Mia!” on the stage in London and thought it was actually a lot of fun. I saw the movie on HBO and thought it was dreadful. Everything about it was terrible. The direction, the acting, the cinematography.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Greg May 29, 2018

      Ha! Then I had the nerve to ask my wife if there was a chance we’d go see it. She just said, “Pierce Brosnan’s singing, Colin Firth’s singing, that other guy’s singing, those 2 sidekicks of Meryl’s singing…”. And then I remembered…Meryl’s overalls. Wow, what a stupid movie! And I love ABBA…

      Reply
  5. Avatar
    Ivan May 31, 2018

    ANy ideas on hereditary? or why is not being predicted?

    Reply

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