Long Range Tracking: ‘Incredibles 2’ Builds Momentum; Early ‘Equalizer 2’ & ‘Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!’ Tracking
This week’s report focuses on the summer’s next tentpole opener on June 15, as well as two counter-programmers set for release on July 20.
The Incredibles 2
Opening Weekend Range: $125 – 145 million
Pixar’s long-awaited sequel continues to build major momentum ahead of its release on Father’s Day weekend three weeks from now. Presales and traditional tracking show the film making gains on the pace of Finding Dory‘s metrics two summers ago, which opened to $135.1 million — the standing record for an animated movie. Social media buzz for Incredibles 2 is very healthy at this stage, although its Twitter footprint is well behind Dory while between that of Inside Out and Minions at comparable points.
At this stage, cracking Dory‘s animated record is certainly on the table, although we’ll have a stronger idea on the likelihood of that in the coming weeks once the crowded Memorial Day market settles. Animated films — even sequels — tend to be more about long-term playability than massive debuts, but anything is possible for this one given its pent-up demand and the landscape devoid of major animated titles in recent months.
The Equalizer 2
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 25 million
Denzel Washington will drive the majority of interest in this sequel to his 2014 hit adaptation, although the move from fall to a summer release positions it directly against fellow star-driven action films Skyscraper and Mission: Impossible – Fallout. Some diminished returns compared to the predecessor’s $34.1 million debut should be expected as a result of its current positioning and interest levels.
Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!
Opening Weekend Range: $25 – 35 million
Ten years after the smashing success of the original musical’s $27.8 million bow and $144.1 million domestic run, the entire cast (plus new some new faces) return in this sequel that has had fans buzzing across social media for months. As the only wide release in July aimed predominantly at women, this opens with minimal direct competition, significant goodwill from the first film’s multi-generational fan base, and in a time where musicals have been hot at the box office lately. It wouldn’t be shocking if this film continues tracking upward as we approach mid-July.
Opening Weekend Range: $5 – 12 million
Unfortunately, social media buzz for the comedy isn’t sparking as release approaches, coming in similar to the trends posted by Popstar when it opened in early June two years ago. Paramount announced the film will open in fewer theaters than we previously expected (the last three Jackass films opened in 3,000 locations), further trimming Boxoffice’s current tracking for next weekend.
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Opening||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total||% Chg from Last Week||Estimated Location Count||Distributor|
|6/1/2018||Upgrade||$2,500,000||-17%||$5,500,000||-27%||1,400||OTL Releasing / BH Tilt|
|6/8/2018||Hotel Artemis||n/a||n/a||n/a||Global Road|
|6/8/2018||Ocean’s 8||$45,000,000||7%||$155,000,000||7%||3,600||Warner Bros.|
|6/15/2018||The Incredibles 2||$125,000,000||9%||$425,000,000||8%||Disney / Pixar|
|6/22/2018||Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom||$130,000,000||$327,500,000||Universal|
|6/29/2018||The Hustle||n/a||n/a||Mirror Films / MGM|
|6/29/2018||Sicario: Day of the Soldado||$15,000,000||$39,000,000||Sony / Columbia|
|6/29/2018||Uncle Drew||$16,500,000||$45,000,000||Lionsgate / Summit|
|7/4/2018||The First Purge||$20,000,000||$55,000,000||Universal|
|7/6/2018||Ant-Man and the Wasp||$84,000,000||$225,000,000||Disney / Marvel|
|7/13/2018||Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation||$45,000,000||$155,000,000||Sony / Columbia|
|7/20/2018||The Equalizer 2||$20,000,000||NEW||$58,000,000||NEW||Sony / Columbia|
|7/20/2018||Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!||$33,000,000||NEW||$105,000,000||NEW||Universal|
|7/20/2018||Unfriended: Dark Web||n/a||n/a||Universal|