Long Range Tracking: Jordan Peele’s Us

One of early 2019’s most buzzed-about new releases is the focus of our long range report this week, filmmaker Jordan Peele’s anticipated follow-up project to 2017’s Get Out.

Us
Opening Weekend Range: $35M – $55M

PROS:

  • Jordan Peele shot to immediate star filmmaker status with the wildly successful Get Out two years ago, which bowed to $33.4 million and legged out to $176 million domestically — earning praise from audiences, critics, and award guilds alike.
  • The first trailer has been strongly received since debuting at Christmas, earning more than 13 million views on the first day from Peele’s Twitter announcement post.
  • The studio’s decision to delay the film’s release until after a premiere at SXSW in March could serve to drum buzz up even higher. Incidentally, it also now has two weeks of breathing room after Captain Marvel‘s release.
  • Horror/thriller films have remained stalwart box office draws in recent years, and this is undoubtedly the first “event” original film from the genre in 2019. Fans will be hungry for something fresh and exciting.
  • Our most recent Trailer Impact survey indicates 73 percent of surveyed audiences are interested in the film, a strong representation for a horror title two months out from release.
  • Still riding the momentum of Get Out and its cultural impact, Peele’s profile should help Us to effectively behave like a spiritual sequel to that film during opening weekend — especially given the studio’s strong early marketing push.

CONS:

  • Until reviews and screening reactions are available, it’s challenging to assess whether or not Us will have the kind of staying power Get Out and films like A Quiet Place enjoyed — largely due to the widespread interest in what Peele has in store for his second directorial effort and how the film will play among the masses.
  • Pet Sematary will open during this film’s third weekend, which could siphon away some horror fans if that Stephen King remake builds significant buzz.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Release Tracking % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
2/1/2019 Miss Bala $7,500,000 -17% $21,000,000 -17% 2,000 Sony / Columbia
2/8/2019 Cold Pursuit $12,000,000 -8% $37,500,000 -6% 2,700 Lionsgate / Summit
2/8/2019 The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part $55,000,000 -7% $186,400,000 -7% 4,000 Warner Bros.
2/8/2019 The Prodigy $5,500,000 $12,000,000 2,500 Orion Pictures
2/8/2019 What Men Want $25,000,000 $63,000,000 3,000 Paramount
2/13/2019 Happy Death Day 2U $20,000,000 $52,000,000 Universal
2/13/2019 Isn’t It Romantic $15,000,000 7% $57,000,000 6% Warner Bros.
2/14/2019 Alita: Battle Angel $15,500,000 $44,000,000 Fox
2/14/2019 Fighting with My Family n/a n/a MGM
2/22/2019 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World $44,000,000 $155,000,000 Universal
2/22/2019 The Turning n/a n/a Universal / Amblin
3/1/2019 Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral $27,000,000 $68,000,000 Lionsgate
3/8/2019 Captain Marvel $160,000,000 $440,000,000 -5% Disney / Marvel
3/15/2019 No Manches Frida 2 n/a n/a Lionsgate / Pantelion Films
3/15/2019 Five Feet Apart $11,000,000 $37,000,000 Lionsgate
3/15/2019 Wonder Park $8,000,000 $30,000,000 Paramount
3/22/2019 The Informer n/a n/a Aviron
3/22/2019 Us $42,000,000 NEW $135,000,000 NEW Universal

Tracking and forecasts are subject to change each week as marketing, reviews, and other factors are taken into consideration.

Contact us for information about subscribing to Boxoffice.com’s suite of forecasting and data services.

Shawn Robbins

18 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Greg January 26, 2019

    We saw The Lego Movie twice and loved it. 5 years later, after 2 lackluster (to me) spin-offs, the bloom is off the rose. I would have never guessed 5 years ago that I’d greet a sequel with such indifference. Apparently, I’m not the only one.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      TTVOMJ January 26, 2019

      i dont think a sequel was ever needed…it ended perfectly with memorable will farell playdoh daughter thing and the gimmick is off..surprise is gone..

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Kaustav January 28, 2019

      The Lego Batman movie was lackluster? Seriously?

      Reply
      • Avatar
        manofbronze January 28, 2019

        yes. it became too much as it went along…

        Reply
      • Avatar
        Greg January 28, 2019

        Well, I thought it was going to be incredible, but, to me, it just dragged on and on. Now, of course, I’m not knocking you or anyone for loving it, because a lot of people certainly did.

        Reply
  2. Avatar
    Alexander January 26, 2019

    I lower Captain Marvel’s $160,000,000 opening to $112,000,000 & $307,500,000 domestic, $298,000,000 international, and $605,500,000 Worldwide. Also How to Train Your Dragon 3 opening should be raised to $73,000,000 and $268,600,000 domestic, $673,800,000 international, and $942,400,000 worldwide.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      night walker January 29, 2019

      are you serious. Captain Marvel is more likely to end up with $940 million no MCU film has grossed less than $400 million internationally since Ant-man, and before Ant-man the last MCU movie to gross less than $400 million internationally was the first Captain America movie. Captain Marvel is set to be huge, maybe not as much as this website says it will be, but still very big. And How to Train Your Dragon 3, $942 million? I expect this film to do well, but there is no evidence that it will even reach $700 million world wide for sure. It’s done OK in the few international markets that it has been released in, but it hasn’t done great. it had a Dream-works animation opening weekend record in Australia, but has had much weaker legs than How To Train Your Dragon 2, so it might not even top the second film in that territory. $942 million is a huge over the top prediction, Especially when you think Captain Marvel will be the lowest grossing MCU film since Ant-man.

      Reply
  3. Avatar
    Miguel Ángel Pérez January 26, 2019

    Captain Marvel isn’t gonna outgross Wonder Woman. Mark my words.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Alessio Pasquali January 26, 2019

      We’ll see. Given how nearly full two of the theaters in my NJ/NY area are on opening night, I think it will.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Miguel Ángel Pérez January 27, 2019

        100% agree it will open far bigger than Wonder Woman. Pretty sure it won’t have WW legs.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          night walker January 29, 2019

          It wont need wonder woman size legs. It just needs modest size legs.

          Reply
    • Avatar
      Ric Mejia January 28, 2019

      Ha ha someone (you) is PRESSED about the Captain Marvel numbers. Although I guess you have a point since MCU haters said the same about Black Panther not passing Wonder Woman and they were right: Wonder Woman earned $800 million worldwide and Black Panther earned $700 million…oops my bad that $700 million for BP was just domestic…ha ha

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Rob Moreno January 28, 2019

      Actually it will and by a healthy margin. Dread it, run from it, still gonna happen. Marvel is just too good which I know frustrates some people 🙂

      Reply
  4. Avatar
    Shakerxxoo January 28, 2019

    Honestly when are you guys gonna increase your predictions for HTTYD 3 opening weekend?
    Nothing is opening on it’s weekend & no big movie before it, The Lego has 2 weeks
    All the theaters near me are almost full & that’s just for an early 3 pm February 2nd early screening
    I really think it can open at close to $70m

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    Dave January 28, 2019

    You are so underestimating Alita!!!!!!!

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Revan January 30, 2019

      50/50 – 50% chance is bombs majorly and maybe makes its way to 450 million worldwide tops on a 200 million plus budget doubled for marketing – 50% chance it majorly breaks out as a James Cameron epic and makes 800 million plus worldwide.
      Unfortunately I believe it will be the first because of today’s culture, competition, and anime live action adaption history in theaters – plus if a cameron film breaks out – it will for sure will make over a billion – and that absolutly wont happen because in history no year has had over 5 films make over a billion and those slots for sure are already taken by:

      Avengers: Endgame (No explination needed)
      The Lion King (black panther esq domestic numbers alone)
      Star Wars IX (Finale of new star wars saga – im personally not a fan but not a hater either, a billion guaranteed though)
      Frozen 2 (Unless they do something to alienate audiences)
      Aladdin (No way this makes less than Alice in Wonderland, even the animated film made more than beauty and the beast all though im expecting this to make slightly less worldwide and domestically – to much star power in the 2017 Beauty and the Beast film – still over 1.2 billion though)

      And even if by chance one of those films happen to fail – There is always Captain Marvel, Spider-Man: Far From Home, and Toy Story 4 – but those films will be around $800-$950 million worldwide. Alita doesnt really have a fighting chance.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Kore January 30, 2019

        B-but she’s a battle angel.

        Seriously though. Let’s leave it as a wild card. I wouldn’t bet it will bomb.

        Reply
  6. Avatar
    night walker January 29, 2019

    1)-My Lego movie 2 prediction $65-$70 million opening, $230-$250 million domestic total, $470-$510 million world wide.
    2)-How To Train Your Dragon 3 prediction $55-$60 million opening, $190-$220 million domestic total, $610-$720 million world wide.
    3)-Captain Marvel $125-$175 million opening, $375-$525 million domestic total, $800 million-$1.100 billion world wide. I think this film will have a $150 million opening $450 million domestic total, and between $960 million and $1 billion world wide.

    Reply

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