Long Range Tracking: ‘Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom’ & ‘Deadpool 2’ Updates

This week’s report focuses on Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom — the fifth installment in the Jurassic Park franchise, which will be in the midst of celebrating its 25th anniversary this summer.

The return of stars Chris Pratt and Bryce Dallas Howard will please fans of 2015’s Jurassic World, while older fans are eagerly anticipating the return of Jeff Goldblum’s Ian Malcolm character, whom hasn’t been seen in the franchise since 1997’s The Lost WorldFallen Kingdom‘s early teaser reactions weren’t as positively received as those of its predecessor initially, but the most recent payoff trailer has generated more positive reactions online.

While comparing social media trends for this sequel to the 2015 film could be hit and miss due to severe under-tracking three years ago, Kingdom‘s same-point metrics are comparable to those of fellow Chris Pratt-led sequel Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. That title bowed to an excellent $146.5 million as 2017’s summer opener, legging its way out to nearly $390 million domestically.

At this time, Fallen Kingdom is tracking for a performance similar to that Marvel sequel, largely due to a more competitive release slate this year. Jurassic World faced a blockbuster Pixar title virtually head-to-head (as its sequel will this summer), but was the first live action tentpole to open over $100 million after early May’s Avengers: Age of Ultron. This year, it’s widely expected that three films in May alone will break past that mark, potentially softening demand for a mid-June action tentpole (not to mention the other expected hits).

In terms of staying power, Jurassic World never faced a live action film that opened to more than $33 million until its sixth weekend of release (Marvel’s Ant-Man). This time around, Ant-Man and the Wasp will bow in Kingdom‘s third weekend, followed by Dwayne Johnson’s Skyscraper one week later. Both will likely cut into some of Jurassic‘s target audience.

Ultimately, while diminished returns are expected, that’s par for the course for many sequels — especially those following unexpected and historic box office runs with unique circumstances and built-up nostalgia driving them. Taking global performance into consideration, Universal should be sitting pretty with another hugely profitable box office run when Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom hits theaters this summer.

Boxoffice is currently tracking Fallen Kingdom for an opening weekend range of $130-150 million and total domestic range of $325-380 million.

This Week’s Other Updates

  • Deadpool 2 debuted on traditional industry tracking this week to a wide range of expectations. Current metrics suggest the film could open anywhere in between $110 million and $140 million. The sequel’s most recent trailer has generated a welcome uptick in social media buzz, and although it still trails the phenomenal footprint of its predecessor, the surge in interest is significant enough to warrant higher forecasts.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
5/4/2018 Bad Samaritan n/a n/a 1,800 Electric Entertainment
5/4/2018 Overboard $14,000,000 $39,000,000 1,500 Lionsgate / Pantelion
5/4/2018 Tully n/a n/a 1,200 Focus Features
5/11/2018 Breaking In $13,000,000 $34,800,000 2,300 Universal
5/11/2018 Life of the Party $21,000,000 $54,000,000 3,500 Warner Bros. / New Line
5/18/2018 Book Club $8,000,000 33% $25,000,000 32% Paramount
5/18/2018 Deadpool 2 $120,000,000 20% $290,000,000 20% Fox
5/18/2018 Show Dogs $8,000,000 $25,000,000 Global Road Films
5/25/2018 Solo: A Star Wars Story $150,000,000 $390,000,000 Disney
6/1/2018 Action Point $17,000,000 $42,500,000 Paramount
6/1/2018 Adrift $10,000,000 $34,000,000 STXfilms
6/1/2018 Upgrade n/a n/a OTL Releasing / BH Tilt
6/8/2018 Hereditary n/a n/a A24
6/8/2018 Hotel Artemis n/a n/a Global Road Films
6/8/2018 Ocean’s 8 $42,000,000 $145,000,000 Warner Bros.
6/15/2018 The Incredibles 2 $110,000,000 $395,000,000 Disney / Pixar
6/15/2018 Superfly n/a n/a Sony
6/15/2018 Tag $13,000,000 $43,000,000 Warner Bros.
6/15/2018 Untitled Entertainment Studios (2018) n/a n/a Entertainment Studios
6/22/2018 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom $139,000,000 NEW $350,000,000 NEW Universal
Shawn Robbins

13 Comments

  1. Avatar
    JMontgomery April 27, 2018

    I’m honestly thinking Jurassic World will make more around $155 million dollars. Hype should increase as the movie draws nearer.

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Matt April 27, 2018

    Yeah, I think by the time Jurassic World comes out, a lot of people might be broke by then. Between Infinity War, Deadpool, Solo, and Incredibles.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Charles April 27, 2018

      lol. There’s always MoviePass.

      Reply
  3. Avatar
    Elijahfade April 27, 2018

    Jurassic World will have similar decline like the Avengers Age of Ultron did. Both sequels looked too similar to their originals. Alot of people are not going pay higher prices for the same movies. Especially when their is so much competition.

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Ben April 28, 2018

    Jurassic World Prediction sounds right, although 208 to 139 is a massive 32% dip in terms of opening and although that doesn’t sound big the other two movies to open 200+ and have a sequel were Avengers and TFA. TFA to TLJ was only an 11% drop and Avengers to Age of Ultron was a 7% drop and Infinity War is going to open way bigger than both of them. Bottom line is this is going to be a massive dip and they should have held onto the JW3 announcement.

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    Ben April 28, 2018

    And 350 is a 46% drop from the originals 652 final total. I put it at finishing 350 for my predictions too

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    Matt D. April 28, 2018

    I’m betting that JW:FK will make more than they predict. It’s only a prediction. I think a solid $170-180 M OW with a finish around $430-480 M. I will update my Deadpool prediction with a OW of $125-130 M and finish around $310-340 M. Solo will hopefully open with $130 M on the 3-Day Weekend and $155 M on the 4-Day. And Incredibles 2 will make $135 M OW and finish around $400-450 if it has good legs. I know these predictions sound crazy but hopefully all of them come true.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      bmg April 29, 2018

      I’m siding with Matt D. on this. Typically, sequels are considered successful if they make 2/3 of their predecessor. Lost World did almost exactly that compared to the original Jurassic park ($229M vs $357M, or 64% retention).

      This ties back to Last Jedi. Everyone was saying a billion dollars, but that was completely unreasonable, even disregarding the backlash: Empire Strikes Back retained 68% of Star Wars and Attack of the Clones retained 70% of Phantom Menace. Last Jedi ended up retaining 66% of Phantom Menace. Pretty spot on.

      Using that metric, Fallen Kingdom should be able to make roughly $420 million as a final domestic gross. With a typical opening-to-final multiplier of 2.5, that puts it’s opening weekend at about $170 million. I’m going with that.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        David Howell May 01, 2018

        I suspect that casual audience saturation/burst wallets from one of the biggest summers we’ve ever seen will be the main thing holding Fallen Kingdom back.

        But there’s enough nailed-on audience out there to make a nine-figure opening an almost total lock, regardless.

        Reply
    • Avatar
      jonam June 08, 2018

      Haha…look where solo is now…been almost two weeks and its reeling at 155 to 158 yet to four days….

      Reply
  7. Avatar
    ARK May 01, 2018

    deadpool 2 will open with 150 for lt 400 and solo will underperform…..

    Reply
  8. Avatar
    David May 01, 2018

    What is Untitled Entertainment Studios (2018)?

    Reply
  9. Avatar
    Brian de Castro May 13, 2018

    Everyone underestimated the last Jurassic World by a ton. I feel the same here. Yeah, maybe there’s more competition and less of a nostalgia feel with this one (though Goldblum’s character actually adds some), and this film looks a bit darker, but dinosaurs eating people is dark and people, including kids, came out in droves last time. Pratt is even a bigger star now, and kids (and adults) will always love dinosaurs like nothing else, because of their diversity, size and the fact that they actually existed. I can’t see a mega-franchise film like this dropping by almost half in total domestic gross, so I’m going with more like $160/450M.

    Reply

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