Long Range Tracking: ‘The Kid Who Would Be King’ & ‘Serenity’

This week’s report takes a first look at the final weekend of January 2019, currently slated with the release of Fox’s The Kid Who Would Be King and Aviron’s Serenity.

PROS:

  • The Kid Who Would Be King could benefit from its positioning as one of the first youth-friendly films of the year, getting a two-week jump on February 8’s The LEGO Movie 2. Initial trailers and the film’s high production value under director Joe Cornish could aid appeal to parents.
  • Matthew McConaughey and Anne Hathaway may provide enough star power for Serenity to counter-program the family-leaning opener.

CONS:

  • Early Trailer Impact and social media trends are mixed for The Kid Who Would Be King, which is to be expected given the glut of family-driven holiday releases before it.
  • Distributor Aviron has a young history, so it remains to be seen how much marketing is employed closer to release. Serenity will also have to fend off a potentially strong second weekend from Glass and, likely, a number of Oscar candidates in varying stages of expansion.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Release Tracking % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
12/12/2018 Once Upon a Deadpool (Limited Release) n/a n/a Fox
12/14/2018 Mortal Engines $13,000,000 -7% $46,000,000 -8% Universal
12/14/2018 The Mule $16,000,000 7% $80,000,000 Warner Bros.
12/14/2018 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse $30,000,000 3% $135,000,000 4% Sony / Columbia
12/19/2018 Mary Poppins Returns $38,000,000 -5% $320,000,000 -9% Disney
12/21/2018 Aquaman $58,000,000 6% $212,000,000 6% Warner Bros.
12/21/2018 Bumblebee $20,000,000 $100,000,000 Paramount
12/21/2018 Second Act $7,000,000 $40,000,000 STX
12/21/2018 Welcome to Marwen $4,500,000 $22,000,000 Universal
12/25/2018 Holmes & Watson $17,000,000 $85,000,000 Sony / Columbia
12/25/2018 Vice (Wide) n/a $65,000,000 Annapurna
1/4/2019 Eli (2019) n/a n/a Paramount
1/4/2019 Escape Room $13,000,000 $32,000,000 Sony / Columbia
1/11/2019 A Dog’s Way Home $12,000,000 $40,000,000 Sony / Columbia
1/11/2019 Perfect Strangers n/a n/a Lionsgate / Pantelion Films
1/11/2019 Replicas n/a n/a Entertainment Studios
1/11/2019 The Upside $13,000,000 $39,000,000 STX
1/18/2019 Arctic Dogs $5,500,000 NEW $17,000,000 NEW Entertainment Studios
1/18/2019 Glass $67,000,000 $180,000,000 Universal
1/25/2019 The Kid Who Would Be King $15,000,000 NEW $50,000,000 NEW Fox
1/25/2019 Serenity (2019) $10,000,000 NEW $30,000,000 NEW Aviron
1/25/2019 Untitled STX Action/Thriller n/a n/a STX Entertainment

Tracking and forecasts are subject to change each week as marketing, reviews, and other factors are taken into consideration.

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Shawn Robbins

4 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Whodunit November 30, 2018

    Opening numbers for Spider man, Poppins and Aquaman are very tentative. Hope Spiderman and Aquaman beat the predicted numbers

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    brian November 30, 2018

    no prediction yet for Deadpool?

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    ramon carter December 01, 2018

    bumblebee will make more than 20mill opening weekend

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Juan Manuel December 02, 2018

    First numbers to Welcome to Marwen….ouch…
    I think Spiderman is going to do much better in the box office. Maybe even better than The Grinch

    Reply

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