Long Range Tracking: ‘The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part,’ ‘What Men Want,’ & ‘Cold Pursuit’

This week’s report continues an early look at February’s slate with a trio of new additions.

The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part
Opening Weekend Range: $50 – 65 million

PROS:

  • The first film was a major hit across a variety of audiences and ages, translating to a fair amount of goodwill that should carry into this sequel with returning and new characters five years later.
  • This will mark 2019’s first animated tentpole, and the first major animated title to open since before Christmas. Family demand should be considerable.
  • Early tracking and social media trends are very encouraging, with 73 percent of surveyed audiences interested in seeing the sequel.

CONS:

  • The LEGO cinematic brand experienced some dilution with 2017’s Ninjago Movie as it performed well below the standards of LEGO Movie and LEGO Batman. As the fourth film in the “franchise”, some of the novelty may have worn off for older fans.

What Men Want
Opening Weekend Range: $20 – 30 million

PROS:

  • Taraji P. Henson’s fan turnout could be a significant driver here, as will the comedy’s point-of-view reversal from the hit 2000 film, What Women Want.
  • Leading into Valentine’s Day the following week could be excellent timing for what will likely be a female-driven film with plenty of “girls’ night out” potential.

CONS:

  • Reactions to the first trailers have left something to be desired with just 60 percent of surveyed audiences expressing interest. Then again, that’s to be expected for this genre — even among more successful releases.

Cold Pursuit
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 15 million

PROS:

  • Liam Neeson has developed a new wheelhouse in the thriller genre, and this film should squarely appeal to fans of the actor’s recent projects.
  • Coming off of Super Bowl weekend, a male-driven film like this is positioned to capture interest. Direct competition in the weeks ahead will be minor.

CONS:

  • Early tracking and social trends are modest at this time, coming in behind those of Widows.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Release Tracking % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
12/19/2018 Mary Poppins Returns $36,000,000 -5% $320,000,000 3,800 Disney
12/21/2018 Aquaman $69,000,000 13% $240,000,000 8% 4,100 Warner Bros.
12/21/2018 Bumblebee $21,000,000 $100,000,000 3,500 Paramount
12/21/2018 Second Act $6,000,000 -8% $39,000,000 2,600 STX
12/21/2018 Welcome to Marwen $4,000,000 -11% $25,000,000 14% 1,900 Universal
12/25/2018 Holmes & Watson $12,000,000 -8% $65,000,000 -6% 3,200 Sony / Columbia
12/25/2018 Vice (Wide) n/a $65,000,000 1,750 Annapurna
1/4/2019 Eli (2019) n/a n/a Paramount
1/4/2019 Escape Room $13,000,000 $32,000,000 Sony / Columbia
1/11/2019 A Dog’s Way Home $12,000,000 $40,000,000 Sony / Columbia
1/11/2019 Perfect Strangers n/a n/a Lionsgate / Pantelion Films
1/11/2019 Replicas n/a n/a Entertainment Studios
1/11/2019 The Upside $13,000,000 $39,000,000 STX
1/18/2019 Glass $67,000,000 $180,000,000 Universal
1/25/2019 The Kid Who Would Be King $15,000,000 $50,000,000 Fox
1/25/2019 Serenity (2019) $10,000,000 $30,000,000 Aviron
1/25/2019 Untitled STX Action/Thriller n/a n/a STX Entertainment
2/1/2019 Jacob’s Ladder n/a n/a LD Entertainment
2/1/2019 Miss Bala $10,000,000 $28,000,000 Sony / Columbia
2/8/2019 Cold Pursuit $13,000,000 NEW $40,000,000 NEW Lionsgate / Summit
2/8/2019 The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part $60,000,000 NEW $213,000,000 NEW Warner Bros.
2/8/2019 The Prodigy n/a n/a Orion Pictures
2/8/2019 What Men Want $25,000,000 NEW $63,000,000 NEW Paramount

Tracking and forecasts are subject to change each week as marketing, reviews, and other factors are taken into consideration.

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Shawn Robbins

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