Long Range Tracking: ‘The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part,’ ‘What Men Want,’ & ‘Cold Pursuit’
This week’s report continues an early look at February’s slate with a trio of new additions.
The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part
Opening Weekend Range: $50 – 65 million
- The first film was a major hit across a variety of audiences and ages, translating to a fair amount of goodwill that should carry into this sequel with returning and new characters five years later.
- This will mark 2019’s first animated tentpole, and the first major animated title to open since before Christmas. Family demand should be considerable.
- Early tracking and social media trends are very encouraging, with 73 percent of surveyed audiences interested in seeing the sequel.
- The LEGO cinematic brand experienced some dilution with 2017’s Ninjago Movie as it performed well below the standards of LEGO Movie and LEGO Batman. As the fourth film in the “franchise”, some of the novelty may have worn off for older fans.
What Men Want
Opening Weekend Range: $20 – 30 million
- Taraji P. Henson’s fan turnout could be a significant driver here, as will the comedy’s point-of-view reversal from the hit 2000 film, What Women Want.
- Leading into Valentine’s Day the following week could be excellent timing for what will likely be a female-driven film with plenty of “girls’ night out” potential.
- Reactions to the first trailers have left something to be desired with just 60 percent of surveyed audiences expressing interest. Then again, that’s to be expected for this genre — even among more successful releases.
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 15 million
- Liam Neeson has developed a new wheelhouse in the thriller genre, and this film should squarely appeal to fans of the actor’s recent projects.
- Coming off of Super Bowl weekend, a male-driven film like this is positioned to capture interest. Direct competition in the weeks ahead will be minor.
- Early tracking and social trends are modest at this time, coming in behind those of Widows.
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Release Tracking||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total Forecast||% Chg from Last Week||Estimated Location Count||Distributor|
|12/19/2018||Mary Poppins Returns||$36,000,000||-5%||$320,000,000||3,800||Disney|
|12/21/2018||Welcome to Marwen||$4,000,000||-11%||$25,000,000||14%||1,900||Universal|
|12/25/2018||Holmes & Watson||$12,000,000||-8%||$65,000,000||-6%||3,200||Sony / Columbia|
|1/4/2019||Escape Room||$13,000,000||$32,000,000||Sony / Columbia|
|1/11/2019||A Dog’s Way Home||$12,000,000||$40,000,000||Sony / Columbia|
|1/11/2019||Perfect Strangers||n/a||n/a||Lionsgate / Pantelion Films|
|1/25/2019||The Kid Who Would Be King||$15,000,000||$50,000,000||Fox|
|1/25/2019||Untitled STX Action/Thriller||n/a||n/a||STX Entertainment|
|2/1/2019||Jacob’s Ladder||n/a||n/a||LD Entertainment|
|2/1/2019||Miss Bala||$10,000,000||$28,000,000||Sony / Columbia|
|2/8/2019||Cold Pursuit||$13,000,000||NEW||$40,000,000||NEW||Lionsgate / Summit|
|2/8/2019||The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part||$60,000,000||NEW||$213,000,000||NEW||Warner Bros.|
|2/8/2019||The Prodigy||n/a||n/a||Orion Pictures|
|2/8/2019||What Men Want||$25,000,000||NEW||$63,000,000||NEW||Paramount|
Tracking and forecasts are subject to change each week as marketing, reviews, and other factors are taken into consideration.
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