Long Range Tracking: ‘Life of the Party’ & ‘Breaking In’; ‘A Quiet Place’ & ‘Ready Player One’ Updates

This week’s report sees the addition of Life of the Party and Breaking In, both currently set for release on Friday, May 11 ahead of Mother’s Day.

The weekend has proven to be a solid launching pad for female-targeted films over the years, although with varying degrees of box office and critical success. Current tracking shows that the Melissa McCarthy vehicle — Life of the Party — is trending very well in advance marketing with social media activity significantly outpacing that of The Boss and last year’s Mother’s Day opener, Snatched.

Breaking In is on the more conservative end of expectations at the moment, however, with modest Facebook activity among the target adult audience. There’s plenty of time for that to change with such a packed slate of releases over the next two months, but current models suggest it could perform anywhere between the range of last year’s Unforgettable or 2015’s The Boy Next Door. Its ceiling could be higher, though.

Ultimately, both films — especially Life of the Party — may share some late run audience with April’s I Feel Pretty, which remains a sleeper hit candidate thanks to early reactions among target female audiences. That film will be in its fourth weekend of release by Mother’s Day weekend, so the openers could reasonably coexist with the Amy Schumer flick.

This Week’s Key Updates

  • Ready Player One bowed to very positive reactions at the SXSW screening last weekend, indicating the target fan base will pleased with the film upon release. Still, early critics’ reviews are healthy-but-not-fantastic, and we continue to see modest trends for the film as release approaches, suggesting that a breakout beyond the core novel/Spielberg/80s nostalgia crowd will be tough. While we still won’t rule out a run similar to that of 2010’s Tron: Legacy, it is J.J. Abrams’ Super 8 that is beginning to look like a stronger comparison film in terms of box office prospects.
  • Conversely, A Quiet Place continues to make a case for sleeper hit status when it opens in three weeks. While social media footprints based on our internal analysis haven’t quite reached the level of Get Out or Split yet, comparisons remain very favorable to the likes of 10 Cloverfield Lane and Don’t Breathe. The film’s ceiling continues to rise, so it’s definitely a film we wouldn’t be surprised to break out if reviews and word of mouth are strong.
  • First forecasts for Chappaquiddick are now available in the chart below.

8-Week Tracking:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
3/23/2018 Midnight Sun $3,750,000 -17% $9,400,000 -17% 2,000 Open Road
3/23/2018 Pacific Rim Uprising $25,000,000 $61,000,000 3,700 Universal
3/23/2018 Paul, Apostle of Christ $12,500,000 -4% $43,900,000 -4% 1,400 Sony / Columbia
3/23/2018 Sherlock Gnomes $16,000,000 $58,000,000 3,500 Paramount
3/23/2018 Unsane $3,750,000 -6% $7,500,000 -6% 2,000 Bleecker Street
3/29/2018 Ready Player One $37,000,000 -29% $120,000,000 -31% 3,750 Warner Bros.
3/30/2018 Acrimony $14,500,000 -15% $35,000,000 -15% 2,000 Lionsgate
3/30/2018 God’s Not Dead: A Light In Darkness $6,000,000 $15,400,000 1,500 Pure Flix
4/6/2018 Blockers $18,000,000 -5% $59,700,000 -5% Universal
4/6/2018 Chappaquiddick $3,500,000 NEW $7,000,000 NEW Entertainment Studios
4/6/2018 The Miracle Season n/a n/a Mirror / LD Entertainment / Pure Flix
4/6/2018 A Quiet Place $26,000,000 4% $80,000,000 3% Paramount
4/13/2018 Rampage $20,000,000 $49,500,000 Warner Bros. / New Line
4/13/2018 Truth or Dare $19,000,000 $39,000,000 Universal
4/20/2018 I Feel Pretty $21,000,000 $70,000,000 STXfilms
4/20/2018 Super Troopers 2 $5,000,000 $9,000,000 Fox Searchlight
4/20/2018 Traffik $3,500,000 $8,750,000 Lionsgate / Summit
4/27/2018 Avengers: Infinity War $215,000,000 $538,000,000 Disney
5/4/2018 Bad Samaritan n/a n/a Electric Entertainment
5/4/2018 Overboard $14,000,000 $39,000,000 Lionsgate / Pantelion
5/4/2018 Tully n/a n/a Focus Features
5/11/2018 Breaking In $14,000,000 NEW $37,500,000 NEW Universal
5/11/2018 Life of the Party $21,000,000 NEW $54,000,000 NEW Warner Bros. / New Line
Boxoffice Staff

11 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Dakota Luebbert March 16, 2018

    Traffik Moved to May 4th with Overboard to get closer to mothers day. Official release for Traffik is May 4th, 2018.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Dakota Luebbert March 17, 2018

      Sorry for the false information, Traffik moved from May 4th to March 20th.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Shangela Was Robbed March 18, 2018

        still false it’s opening on April 20th

        Reply
  2. Avatar
    Brad March 16, 2018

    Why the sudden fear on Ready Player One and Blockers? I think both will open higher than what is predicted here. I also think $215 for Avengers is a little on the low side. 230-240 is probably where it will finish. I do agree with the aggressive prediction of A Quiet Place, and hopefully the great buzz continues.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Orlando March 16, 2018

      I agree that the $215m opening weekend prediction of Infinity War is a little low compared to what it will actually open up with. I think that opening weekend projection will go up next week because ticket pre-sells on IW have been very strong. I too think IW will open around $230-$240m if not a little higher possibly. If IW does that it should be able to make a strong run at $600m domestic assuming it has pretty solid sturdy legs in the following weeks.

      Reply
  3. Avatar
    456! March 16, 2018

    Rampage is too low. The Rock is hot again after Jumanji.

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Kenneth March 16, 2018

    Agree that the numbers for Infinity War is a too low. Read somewhere that early tracking has it opening around $235 million. And these kind of movies often open bigger than early tracking suggest. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if it sets a new OW-record and becomes the first movie to open with over $250 million.

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    Dakota Luebbert March 17, 2018

    Avengers will open higher, Avengers is now Fandango #1- 24 hour seller beating Black Panther.

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    Danielle March 19, 2018

    Infinity War is gonna be such a good movie and the amount of money it makes is going to skyrocket even compared to Black Panther because not only are the trailers amazing, but characters from Black Panther like Okoye, Shuri, and M’Baku are going to be in it, which obviously, many people have loved since the movie came out as the movie crushes the box office at it’s fifth weekend out.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      JaceeB March 20, 2018

      The first two weeks of May looks empty.
      Didn’t they learn from counter-programming successes of Murder On The Orient Express, and Daddy’s Home 2?
      Heck, even Bad Mom’s Christmas made $72m against Thor, and Wonder made $130m against Justice League.
      Not everyone wants to see yet another tired superhero movie for the hundredth time.

      Reply
  7. Avatar
    Ronny butters March 23, 2018

    I would bet a years salary rampage does much higher than 20 million opening weekend, the rock action movie with some humor, lol and u really think 20 million, yea let’s make that bet. May do 40 mil opening weekend.

    Reply

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