Long Range Tracking: ‘Alpha,’ ‘Crazy Rich Asians,’ & ‘Mile 22’

Boxoffice’s report this week focuses on early tracking for a trio of mid-August releases.

Alpha
Opening Weekend Range: $7 – 12 million

Multiple release date changes and a notable shift in the film’s tone with its most recent trailer are contributing to modest activity here.

Crazy Rich Asians
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 15 million (3-day FSS)

Early tracking and social trends are conservative for now, but it’s nature as the first Hollywood film in a quarter century to star an all-Asian cast could generate stronger momentum heading into August. This may be a sleeper to watch for if the novel’s fans respond well to the adaptation.

Mile 22
Opening Weekend Range: $12 – 17 million

Mark Wahlberg should help drive his latest collaboration with director Peter Berg. Lingering competition for action fans from July’s releases and/or end-of-summer fatigue could still be factors to watch out for, but the two-week release delay aids prospects. Early tracking models compare to American Assassin and Den of Thieves.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
6/29/2018 Sicario: Day of the Soldado $14,000,000 $37,000,000 2,900 Sony / Columbia
6/29/2018 Uncle Drew $16,500,000 $45,000,000 2,600 Lionsgate / Summit
7/4/2018 The First Purge $21,000,000 5% $58,000,000 6% 2,800 Universal
7/6/2018 Ant-Man and the Wasp $77,000,000 $205,000,000 3,900 Disney / Marvel
7/13/2018 Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation $45,000,000 $155,000,000 Sony / Columbia
7/13/2018 Skyscraper $40,000,000 -9% $117,000,000 -9% Universal
7/20/2018 The Equalizer 2 $20,000,000 $58,000,000 Sony / Columbia
7/20/2018 Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! $33,000,000 $105,000,000 Universal
7/20/2018 Unfriended: Dark Web $7,500,000 -6% $15,000,000 -6% OTL Releasing / BH Tilt
7/27/2018 Mission: Impossible – Fallout $65,000,000 $200,000,000 Paramount
7/27/2018 Teen Titans Go! to the Movies $16,000,000 $50,000,000 Warner Bros.
8/3/2018 Disney’s Christopher Robin $30,000,000 $110,000,000 Disney
8/3/2018 The Darkest Minds $12,000,000 $38,000,000 Fox
8/3/2018 Searching n/a n/a Sony / Screen Gems
8/3/2018 The Spy Who Dumped Me $17,000,000 $63,000,000 Lionsgate
8/10/2018 Dog Days n/a n/a LD Entertainment
8/10/2018 The Meg $14,000,000 $37,000,000 Warner Bros.
8/15/2018 Crazy Rich Asians $13,000,000 NEW $42,000,000 NEW Warner Bros.
8/17/2018 Alpha $8,500,000 NEW $24,000,000 NEW Sony / Studio 8
8/17/2018 Mile 22 $15,000,000 15% $44,000,000 16% STX
Shawn Robbins

7 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Bo June 22, 2018

    Mile 22 comes out on Aug 3.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Nathan June 27, 2018

      STX moved Mile 22 to 8/17 (from 8/3) and The Happytime Murders to 8/24 (from 8/17)

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    Kent June 22, 2018

    The only way Crazy Rich Asians hits a double digit opening is if the next trailer is awesome. That first trailer was just awful, bland and showed nothing different from any other rom com from the past 30 years. Right now I’m only somewhat interested due to Michelle Yeoh, but even that may not be enough to get me to see it in the theatre.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      J August 10, 2018

      You don’t know what you’re talking about. This movie will make a killing!

      Reply
  3. Avatar
    John June 22, 2018

    Crazy Rich Asians is definitly a hard one to predict at the moment but if reviews are great, this could break out big

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Jacen June 22, 2018

    Shawn, a little grammar correction on your Crazy Rich Asians entry: “it’s nature as” means “it is nature as,” which makes no sense, or “it has nature as,” which doesn’t quite cut it. The possessive “its” belongs there, not the contraction “it’s”. Otherwise, the reporting looks solid. Like John, I’m also curious to see how CRA does, especially since the August releases look very thin re breakout status thus far. I know Augusts are typically weak, but this year’s slate looks more uninteresting than usual (maybe Disney should have released Solo there instead of in May).

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    navtej singh June 22, 2018

    Crazy Rich Asians is going to destroy, it will open at $40m+

    Reply

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