Long Range Tracking: ‘Alpha,’ ‘Crazy Rich Asians,’ & ‘Mile 22’
Boxoffice’s report this week focuses on early tracking for a trio of mid-August releases.
Opening Weekend Range: $7 – 12 million
Multiple release date changes and a notable shift in the film’s tone with its most recent trailer are contributing to modest activity here.
Crazy Rich Asians
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 15 million (3-day FSS)
Early tracking and social trends are conservative for now, but it’s nature as the first Hollywood film in a quarter century to star an all-Asian cast could generate stronger momentum heading into August. This may be a sleeper to watch for if the novel’s fans respond well to the adaptation.
Opening Weekend Range: $12 – 17 million
Mark Wahlberg should help drive his latest collaboration with director Peter Berg. Lingering competition for action fans from July’s releases and/or end-of-summer fatigue could still be factors to watch out for, but the two-week release delay aids prospects. Early tracking models compare to American Assassin and Den of Thieves.
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Opening||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total||% Chg from Last Week||Estimated Location Count||Distributor|
|6/29/2018||Sicario: Day of the Soldado||$14,000,000||$37,000,000||2,900||Sony / Columbia|
|6/29/2018||Uncle Drew||$16,500,000||$45,000,000||2,600||Lionsgate / Summit|
|7/4/2018||The First Purge||$21,000,000||5%||$58,000,000||6%||2,800||Universal|
|7/6/2018||Ant-Man and the Wasp||$77,000,000||$205,000,000||3,900||Disney / Marvel|
|7/13/2018||Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation||$45,000,000||$155,000,000||Sony / Columbia|
|7/20/2018||The Equalizer 2||$20,000,000||$58,000,000||Sony / Columbia|
|7/20/2018||Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!||$33,000,000||$105,000,000||Universal|
|7/20/2018||Unfriended: Dark Web||$7,500,000||-6%||$15,000,000||-6%||OTL Releasing / BH Tilt|
|7/27/2018||Mission: Impossible – Fallout||$65,000,000||$200,000,000||Paramount|
|7/27/2018||Teen Titans Go! to the Movies||$16,000,000||$50,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|8/3/2018||Disney’s Christopher Robin||$30,000,000||$110,000,000||Disney|
|8/3/2018||The Darkest Minds||$12,000,000||$38,000,000||Fox|
|8/3/2018||Searching||n/a||n/a||Sony / Screen Gems|
|8/3/2018||The Spy Who Dumped Me||$17,000,000||$63,000,000||Lionsgate|
|8/10/2018||Dog Days||n/a||n/a||LD Entertainment|
|8/10/2018||The Meg||$14,000,000||$37,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|8/15/2018||Crazy Rich Asians||$13,000,000||NEW||$42,000,000||NEW||Warner Bros.|
|8/17/2018||Alpha||$8,500,000||NEW||$24,000,000||NEW||Sony / Studio 8|