Long Range Tracking: ‘Mission: Impossible – Fallout’ Still On Course for $60M+ Debut; ‘Skyscraper,’ ‘Equalizer 2,’ & More Updates
Saturday, July 7 Update: Universal has revised Skyscraper‘s estimated location count for next week from 3,800 to 3,700.
With no new additions to this week’s public report, we’re highlighting a few upcoming titles for the back half of July.
Mission: Impossible – Fallout
Opening Weekend Range: $60 – 75 million
Not much has changed since our initial report as anticipation and buzz continue to grow ahead of Tom Cruise’s sixth outing as Ethan Hunt. The film appeared on traditional industry tracking for the first time this week with metrics lining up to Boxoffice’s expectations earlier this summer.
Opening Weekend Range: $30 – 45 million (down from $30-50M)
Due to stalling social media growth in comparison to Dwayne Johnson’s recent films, we’re slightly lowering forecasts again ahead of next week’s debut. A solid run could still be in store, though.
The Equalizer 2
Opening Weekend Range: $22 – 32 million (up from $18-28M)
Conversely, Denzel Washington’s anticipated sequel continues to trend upward in recent models, tracking ahead of the recent Sicario: Day of the Soldado.
Teen Titans GO! to the Movies
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 25 million
Despite opening two weeks after Hotel Transylvania 3 and one week before Christopher Robin, this could co-exist with those kid-friendly titles during the late summer market thanks to built-in awareness and popularity of the DC superheroes.
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Opening||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total||% Chg from Last Week||Estimated Location Count||Distributor|
|7/13/2018||Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation||$45,000,000||$155,000,000||4,000||Sony / Columbia|
|7/20/2018||The Equalizer 2||$25,000,000||9%||$73,000,000||9%||3,200||Sony / Columbia|
|7/20/2018||Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!||$33,000,000||$105,000,000||3,100||Universal|
|7/20/2018||Unfriended: Dark Web||$7,500,000||$15,000,000||1,900||OTL Releasing / BH Tilt|
|7/27/2018||Mission: Impossible – Fallout||$65,000,000||$200,000,000||Paramount|
|7/27/2018||Teen Titans Go! to the Movies||$17,500,000||9%||$55,000,000||10%||Warner Bros.|
|8/3/2018||Disney’s Christopher Robin||$30,000,000||$110,000,000||Disney|
|8/3/2018||The Darkest Minds||$12,000,000||$38,000,000||Fox|
|8/3/2018||Searching||n/a||n/a||Sony / Screen Gems|
|8/3/2018||The Spy Who Dumped Me||$17,000,000||$63,000,000||Lionsgate|
|8/10/2018||Dog Days||n/a||n/a||LD Entertainment|
|8/10/2018||The Meg||$14,000,000||$37,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|8/15/2018||Crazy Rich Asians||$13,000,000||$42,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|8/17/2018||Alpha||$8,500,000||$24,000,000||Sony / Studio 8|
|8/24/2018||The Happytime Murders||$18,000,000||$47,000,000||STX|
|8/24/2018||Slender Man||$19,000,000||$51,000,000||Sony / Screen Gems|
|8/31/2018||Kin||n/a||n/a||Lionsgate / Summit|