Long Range Tracking: ‘Mission: Impossible – Fallout’ Still On Course for $60M+ Debut; ‘Skyscraper,’ ‘Equalizer 2,’ & More Updates

Saturday, July 7 Update: Universal has revised Skyscraper‘s estimated location count for next week from 3,800 to 3,700.

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With no new additions to this week’s public report, we’re highlighting a few upcoming titles for the back half of July.

Mission: Impossible – Fallout
Opening Weekend Range: $60 – 75 million

Not much has changed since our initial report as anticipation and buzz continue to grow ahead of Tom Cruise’s sixth outing as Ethan Hunt. The film appeared on traditional industry tracking for the first time this week with metrics lining up to Boxoffice’s expectations earlier this summer.

Skyscraper
Opening Weekend Range: $30 – 45 million (down from $30-50M)

Due to stalling social media growth in comparison to Dwayne Johnson’s recent films, we’re slightly lowering forecasts again ahead of next week’s debut. A solid run could still be in store, though.

The Equalizer 2
Opening Weekend Range: $22 – 32 million (up from $18-28M)

Conversely, Denzel Washington’s anticipated sequel continues to trend upward in recent models, tracking ahead of the recent Sicario: Day of the Soldado.

Teen Titans GO! to the Movies
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 25 million

Despite opening two weeks after Hotel Transylvania 3 and one week before Christopher Robin, this could co-exist with those kid-friendly titles during the late summer market thanks to built-in awareness and popularity of the DC superheroes.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
7/13/2018 Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation $45,000,000 $155,000,000 4,000 Sony / Columbia
7/13/2018 Skyscraper $33,500,000 -8% $101,000,000 -8% 3,700 Universal
7/20/2018 The Equalizer 2 $25,000,000 9% $73,000,000 9% 3,200 Sony / Columbia
7/20/2018 Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! $33,000,000 $105,000,000 3,100 Universal
7/20/2018 Unfriended: Dark Web $7,500,000 $15,000,000 1,900 OTL Releasing / BH Tilt
7/27/2018 Mission: Impossible – Fallout $65,000,000 $200,000,000 Paramount
7/27/2018 Teen Titans Go! to the Movies $17,500,000 9% $55,000,000 10% Warner Bros.
8/3/2018 Disney’s Christopher Robin $30,000,000 $110,000,000 Disney
8/3/2018 The Darkest Minds $12,000,000 $38,000,000 Fox
8/3/2018 Searching n/a n/a Sony / Screen Gems
8/3/2018 The Spy Who Dumped Me $17,000,000 $63,000,000 Lionsgate
8/10/2018 Dog Days n/a n/a LD Entertainment
8/10/2018 The Meg $14,000,000 $37,000,000 Warner Bros.
8/15/2018 Crazy Rich Asians $13,000,000 $42,000,000 Warner Bros.
8/17/2018 Alpha $8,500,000 $24,000,000 Sony / Studio 8
8/17/2018 Mile 22 $15,000,000 $44,000,000 STX
8/17/2018 Three Seconds $4,000,000 $9,600,000 Aviron
8/24/2018 A.X.L. $3,000,000 $7,500,000 Global Road
8/24/2018 The Happytime Murders $18,000,000 $47,000,000 STX
8/24/2018 Slender Man $19,000,000 $51,000,000 Sony / Screen Gems
8/24/2018 Stuck n/a n/a Freestyle Releasing
8/31/2018 Kin n/a n/a Lionsgate / Summit
8/31/2018 Ya Veremos n/a n/a Pantelion
Shawn Robbins

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