Long Range Tracking: ‘Mission: Impossible – Fallout’ Aiming for Franchise Best $60M+ July Debut
This week’s report focuses on the last big budget tentpole of summer, July 27’s sixth installment in the Mission: Impossible franchise.
Mission: Impossible – Fallout
Opening Weekend Tracking: $60 – 75 million (Domestic)
Current models for Tom Cruise’s return as Ethan Hunt suggest his sixth Mission could be the biggest yet, aiming to open above the $57.9 million three-day weekend start by Mission: Impossible II eighteen years ago.
Early prospects for Fallout are very encouraging thanks to a strong trailer campaign and the goodwill of 2015’s Rogue Nation — which bowed to $55.5 million before displaying impressive staying power to the tune of $195 million domestically (and $683 million overall worldwide).
The franchise has continued to reinvent itself in resounding fashion over the past 22 years, building into an ensemble-driven series (like its television originator), and embracing its own character-driven continuity — not unlike the recent James Bond and Fast & Furious films.
In a dose of free early promotion, Cruise’s headline-making incident during filming last summer began to raise awareness for the anticipated sequel earlier than expected. Fallout‘s first two trailers have intensified enthusiasm as the film’s Twitter footprint significantly outpaced that of Rogue Nation when its second trailer debuted.
Once again opening in late July, this is expected to fall in line with Rogue and the recent trends by films like Dunkirk, Star Trek Beyond, Jason Bourne, and the Planet of the Apes trilogy as leggy, adult-driven blockbusters designed to open well and continue playing through August if reviews and word of mouth live up to the franchise’s recent standards.
Should marketing continue to fire on all cylinders, we aren’t ruling out a domestic opening above Spectre‘s $70 million given how strong early tracking metrics are.
Globally, Fallout could easily become the franchise’s first entry to exceed a $700+ million box office run — thanks in part to being the first in the series employing the 3D format, which continues to play more strongly among international audiences than it does stateside.
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Opening||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total||% Chg from Last Week||Estimated Location Count||Distributor|
|6/8/2018||Hotel Artemis||n/a||n/a||2,000||Global Road|
|6/8/2018||Ocean’s 8||$45,000,000||$155,000,000||4,000||Warner Bros.|
|6/15/2018||The Incredibles 2||$125,000,000||$425,000,000||4,300||Disney / Pixar|
|6/22/2018||Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom||$130,000,000||$327,500,000||Universal|
|6/29/2018||The Hustle||n/a||n/a||Mirror Films / MGM|
|6/29/2018||Sicario: Day of the Soldado||$15,000,000||$39,000,000||Sony / Columbia|
|6/29/2018||Uncle Drew||$16,500,000||$45,000,000||Lionsgate / Summit|
|7/4/2018||The First Purge||$20,000,000||$55,000,000||Universal|
|7/6/2018||Ant-Man and the Wasp||$84,000,000||$225,000,000||Disney / Marvel|
|7/13/2018||Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation||$45,000,000||$155,000,000||Sony / Columbia|
|7/20/2018||The Equalizer 2||$20,000,000||$58,000,000||Sony / Columbia|
|7/20/2018||Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!||$33,000,000||$105,000,000||Universal|
|7/20/2018||Unfriended: Dark Web||n/a||n/a||Universal|
|7/27/2018||Blindspotting (Expansion)||n/a||n/a||Lionsgate / Summit|
|7/27/2018||Mission: Impossible – Fallout||$65,000,000||NEW||$200,000,000||NEW||Paramount|
|7/27/2018||Teen Titans Go! to the Movies||$16,000,000||NEW||$50,000,000||NEW||Warner Bros.|