Long Range Tracking: ‘Mission: Impossible – Fallout’ Aiming for Franchise Best $60M+ July Debut

This week’s report focuses on the last big budget tentpole of summer, July 27’s sixth installment in the Mission: Impossible franchise.

Mission: Impossible – Fallout
Opening Weekend Tracking: $60 – 75 million (Domestic)

Current models for Tom Cruise’s return as Ethan Hunt suggest his sixth Mission could be the biggest yet, aiming to open above the $57.9 million three-day weekend start by Mission: Impossible II eighteen years ago.

Early prospects for Fallout are very encouraging thanks to a strong trailer campaign and the goodwill of 2015’s Rogue Nation — which bowed to $55.5 million before displaying impressive staying power to the tune of $195 million domestically (and $683 million overall worldwide).

The franchise has continued to reinvent itself in resounding fashion over the past 22 years, building into an ensemble-driven series (like its television originator), and embracing its own character-driven continuity — not unlike the recent James Bond and Fast & Furious films.

In a dose of free early promotion, Cruise’s headline-making incident during filming last summer began to raise awareness for the anticipated sequel earlier than expected. Fallout‘s first two trailers have intensified enthusiasm as the film’s Twitter footprint significantly outpaced that of Rogue Nation when its second trailer debuted.

Once again opening in late July, this is expected to fall in line with Rogue and the recent trends by films like DunkirkStar Trek BeyondJason Bourne, and the Planet of the Apes trilogy as leggy, adult-driven blockbusters designed to open well and continue playing through August if reviews and word of mouth live up to the franchise’s recent standards.

Should marketing continue to fire on all cylinders, we aren’t ruling out a domestic opening above Spectre‘s $70 million given how strong early tracking metrics are.

Globally, Fallout could easily become the franchise’s first entry to exceed a $700+ million box office run — thanks in part to being the first in the series employing the 3D format, which continues to play more strongly among international audiences than it does stateside.

8-Week Tracking:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
6/8/2018 Hereditary n/a n/a n/a A24
6/8/2018 Hotel Artemis n/a n/a 2,000 Global Road
6/8/2018 Ocean’s 8 $45,000,000 $155,000,000 4,000 Warner Bros.
6/13/2018 Superfly $8,000,000 $20,000,000 2,200 Sony
6/15/2018 The Incredibles 2 $125,000,000 $425,000,000 4,300 Disney / Pixar
6/15/2018 Tag $13,000,000 $43,000,000 3,000 Warner Bros.
6/22/2018 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom $130,000,000 $327,500,000 Universal
6/29/2018 The Hustle n/a n/a Mirror Films / MGM
6/29/2018 Sanju n/a n/a Fox
6/29/2018 Sicario: Day of the Soldado $15,000,000 $39,000,000 Sony / Columbia
6/29/2018 Uncle Drew $16,500,000 $45,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit
7/4/2018 The First Purge $20,000,000 $55,000,000 Universal
7/6/2018 Ant-Man and the Wasp $84,000,000 $225,000,000 Disney / Marvel
7/13/2018 Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation $45,000,000 $155,000,000 Sony / Columbia
7/13/2018 Skyscraper $44,000,000 $128,000,000 Universal
7/20/2018 The Equalizer 2 $20,000,000 $58,000,000 Sony / Columbia
7/20/2018 Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! $33,000,000 $105,000,000 Universal
7/20/2018 Unfriended: Dark Web n/a n/a Universal
7/27/2018 Blindspotting (Expansion) n/a n/a Lionsgate / Summit
7/27/2018 Mission: Impossible – Fallout $65,000,000 NEW $200,000,000 NEW Paramount
7/27/2018 Teen Titans Go! to the Movies $16,000,000 NEW $50,000,000 NEW Warner Bros.

 

Shawn Robbins

8 Comments

  1. Avatar
    ---- June 01, 2018

    I think it opens around Rogue Nation. You guys over predicted RN too. You had it opening at 71M

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    kimlert June 01, 2018

    Mission Impossible Fallout will open closer to 75m. I expect a big boost over rogue nation

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Adrian June 01, 2018

    It looks like yet again, just like in 2015 before Jurassic World opened, the “Jurassic” franchise is being undervalued.

    JW2 is going to make at least 1.3 billion ww, domestically we’re looking at 500 mil $ gross. And I do know about ‘The Incredibles 2″.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Matt June 01, 2018

      JW2 doesn’t have the nostalgia factor of the last one. Plus JW, while received decently as a film, wasn’t a beloved classic. At the very least it will fall a third domestically.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Shellyman June 01, 2018

        Jurassic World 2 might fall in 4th place in domestic, I can see Incredibles 2 making $500 million+ at the domestic box office.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Fred June 02, 2018

          Very true. Black Panther and Infinity War are guaranteed to finish 1-2 domestic this year, at this point I think we all can agree on that. But after that battle indeed becomes very interesting because I too think Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom will finish number 3 and 4 on the year domestic, the question is which film will finish ahead of the other. I personally think closing out the top 5 for domestic will likely either be “Deadpool 2” or “Wreck It Like Ralph 2”.

          Reply
          • Avatar
            Miller June 03, 2018

            I’m interested to see who will round out the top five. Currently I’d say it is between who you states as well as Fantastic Beasts, Ant-Man and the Wasp could surprise, Mary Poppins may return strong. The Grinch has a good chance. Should be close

  4. Avatar
    JMontgomery June 05, 2018

    I predict an opening for Incredibles more around 150 mill. Especially as marketing ramps up during the next ten days.

    Reply

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