Long Range Tracking: ‘The Nun’ Looks to Continue ‘Conjuring’ Franchise Success with Possible $35M+ Debut
This week’s report takes a look at the first full weekend of September 2018 as our look deeper into 3Q continues.
The Nun
Opening Weekend Range: $35 – 50 million
The Conjuring universe has proven incredibly successful over the last five years as the main films and two Annabelle spin-offs have an average domestic gross of nearly $107 million. This latest spin-off has generated encouraging buzz thus far as a fan favorite character from The Conjuring 2 becomes the focus. Social media growth to this point has outpaced Annabelle: Creation, and the recent surge by the horror genre at the box office makes us confident this one could easily prove to be another breakout.
Peppermint
Opening Weekend Range: $8 – 15 million
Jennifer Garner returns to her action roots in this revenge tale aiming to capture fans of films like Taken and The Foreigner. Early metrics are modest at this time, but there could be room for more upside as release approaches and marketing fully kicks in.
Updated Ranges
Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! ($28 – 38 million)
Unfriended: Dark Web ($6 – 10 million)
Mission: Impossible – Fallout ($55 – 69 million)
Teen Titans GO! to the Movies ($15 – 23 million)
The Darkest Minds ($7 – 13 million)
8-Week Tracking
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day Wide Opening | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total | % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 7/20/2018 | The Equalizer 2 | $27,000,000 | 8% | $77,000,000 | 6% | 3,000 | Sony / Columbia |
| 7/20/2018 | Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! | $35,000,000 | 9% | $105,000,000 | 3,200 | Universal | |
| 7/20/2018 | Unfriended: Dark Web | $7,000,000 | -7% | $14,000,000 | -7% | 1,500 | OTL Releasing / BH Tilt |
| 7/27/2018 | Mission: Impossible – Fallout | $63,000,000 | -3% | $200,000,000 | 4,000 | Paramount | |
| 7/27/2018 | Teen Titans Go! to the Movies | $16,000,000 | -9% | $50,000,000 | -9% | 3,400 | Warner Bros. |
| 8/3/2018 | Disney’s Christopher Robin | $33,000,000 | 10% | $121,000,000 | 10% | Disney | |
| 8/3/2018 | The Darkest Minds | $9,000,000 | -25% | $28,000,000 | -26% | Fox | |
| 8/3/2018 | Searching | n/a | n/a | Sony / Screen Gems | |||
| 8/3/2018 | The Spy Who Dumped Me | $17,000,000 | $63,000,000 | Lionsgate | |||
| 8/10/2018 | Dog Days | n/a | n/a | LD Entertainment | |||
| 8/10/2018 | The Meg | $14,000,000 | $37,000,000 | Warner Bros. | |||
| 8/15/2018 | Crazy Rich Asians | $13,000,000 | $42,000,000 | Warner Bros. | |||
| 8/17/2018 | Alpha | $8,500,000 | $24,000,000 | Sony / Studio 8 | |||
| 8/17/2018 | Mile 22 | $15,000,000 | $44,000,000 | STX | |||
| 8/17/2018 | Three Seconds | $4,000,000 | $9,600,000 | Aviron | |||
| 8/24/2018 | A.X.L. | $3,000,000 | $7,500,000 | Global Road | |||
| 8/24/2018 | The Happytime Murders | $18,000,000 | $47,000,000 | STX | |||
| 8/24/2018 | Slender Man | $19,000,000 | $51,000,000 | Sony / Screen Gems | |||
| 8/24/2018 | Stuck | n/a | n/a | Freestyle Releasing | |||
| 8/31/2018 | Kin | $7,000,000 | $20,000,000 | Lionsgate / Summit | |||
| 8/31/2018 | Ya Veremos | n/a | n/a | Pantelion | |||
| 9/7/2018 | City of Lies | n/a | n/a | Global Road | |||
| 9/7/2018 | The Nun | $40,000,000 | NEW | $96,000,000 | NEW | Warner Bros. / New Line | |
| 9/7/2018 | Peppermint | $12,000,000 | NEW | $33,500,000 | NEW | STX Entertainment |
13 Comments
I see Christopher Robin is nownupdated with a $33M opening weekend and a likely #1 opening weekend above Mission Impossible 6.
M:I wins second weekend. mouth to mouth will be strong. #missionbillion
Fallout has the best reviews of the franchise by far, and none of the previous films opened lower than 45 million. Sorry, Christopher Robin will not open ahead of it. Besides, they’re opening one week apart. Your prediction makes zero sense.
His prediction makes perfect sense if you read it well. He is saying that a $33 million opening would likely be good enough for #1. ahead of (the second weekend of) Mission Impossible, not that Christopher Robin’s opening will be higher than MI’s opening.
Opening ahead the second weekend of MI, that will be around 30M. So yes, it make sense.
If Mission Impossible’s second weekend is below the $33M this site is predicting for Christopher Robin, then it will open in the first place, above MI, which will have dropped in second place. The prediction makes a lot of sense.
He is saying that Christopher Robin will outgross Mission: Impossible’s 2nd weekend…..
And will most likely outgross MI in NA when all is said and done.
If it wasnt for Tom Cruise these movies would make more money in North America.
Tom Cruise is one of the main reasons people go to the MI films.
His stunts are the biggest selling point, and that goes for NA audiences.
Thank you for providing some clarity, Stevenson.
Really downgrading Fallout? Even after the stellar early reviews? I guess what it may lack in a huge opening it can make up for with legs over a generally weak August.
The Mission Impossible movies never open to really big numbers so 63 million would be a good start for it. But they end up having legs for the long run.
That’s not true for every film of the MI franchise.
The original had a huge opening weekend for 1996, and MI4 would have opened over 60 million had it not opened in limited release.