Long Range Tracking: ‘The Nun’ Looks to Continue ‘Conjuring’ Franchise Success with Possible $35M+ Debut

This week’s report takes a look at the first full weekend of September 2018 as our look deeper into 3Q continues.

The Nun
Opening Weekend Range: $35 – 50 million

The Conjuring universe has proven incredibly successful over the last five years as the main films and two Annabelle spin-offs have an average domestic gross of nearly $107 million. This latest spin-off has generated encouraging buzz thus far as a fan favorite character from The Conjuring 2 becomes the focus. Social media growth to this point has outpaced Annabelle: Creation, and the recent surge by the horror genre at the box office makes us confident this one could easily prove to be another breakout.

Opening Weekend Range: $8 – 15 million

Jennifer Garner returns to her action roots in this revenge tale aiming to capture fans of films like Taken and The Foreigner. Early metrics are modest at this time, but there could be room for more upside as release approaches and marketing fully kicks in.

Updated Ranges

Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! ($28 – 38 million)
Unfriended: Dark Web ($6 – 10 million)
Mission: Impossible – Fallout ($55 – 69 million)
Teen Titans GO! to the Movies ($15 – 23 million)
The Darkest Minds ($7 – 13 million)

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
7/20/2018 The Equalizer 2 $27,000,000 8% $77,000,000 6% 3,000 Sony / Columbia
7/20/2018 Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! $35,000,000 9% $105,000,000 3,200 Universal
7/20/2018 Unfriended: Dark Web $7,000,000 -7% $14,000,000 -7% 1,500 OTL Releasing / BH Tilt
7/27/2018 Mission: Impossible – Fallout $63,000,000 -3% $200,000,000 4,000 Paramount
7/27/2018 Teen Titans Go! to the Movies $16,000,000 -9% $50,000,000 -9% 3,400 Warner Bros.
8/3/2018 Disney’s Christopher Robin $33,000,000 10% $121,000,000 10% Disney
8/3/2018 The Darkest Minds $9,000,000 -25% $28,000,000 -26% Fox
8/3/2018 Searching n/a n/a Sony / Screen Gems
8/3/2018 The Spy Who Dumped Me $17,000,000 $63,000,000 Lionsgate
8/10/2018 Dog Days n/a n/a LD Entertainment
8/10/2018 The Meg $14,000,000 $37,000,000 Warner Bros.
8/15/2018 Crazy Rich Asians $13,000,000 $42,000,000 Warner Bros.
8/17/2018 Alpha $8,500,000 $24,000,000 Sony / Studio 8
8/17/2018 Mile 22 $15,000,000 $44,000,000 STX
8/17/2018 Three Seconds $4,000,000 $9,600,000 Aviron
8/24/2018 A.X.L. $3,000,000 $7,500,000 Global Road
8/24/2018 The Happytime Murders $18,000,000 $47,000,000 STX
8/24/2018 Slender Man $19,000,000 $51,000,000 Sony / Screen Gems
8/24/2018 Stuck n/a n/a Freestyle Releasing
8/31/2018 Kin $7,000,000 $20,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit
8/31/2018 Ya Veremos n/a n/a Pantelion
9/7/2018 City of Lies n/a n/a Global Road
9/7/2018 The Nun $40,000,000 NEW $96,000,000 NEW Warner Bros. / New Line
9/7/2018 Peppermint $12,000,000 NEW $33,500,000 NEW STX Entertainment
Shawn Robbins


  1. Avatar
    Alessio Pasquali July 13, 2018

    I see Christopher Robin is nownupdated with a $33M opening weekend and a likely #1 opening weekend above Mission Impossible 6.

    • Avatar
      ovmartin23 from Czech Rep. July 13, 2018

      M:I wins second weekend. mouth to mouth will be strong. #missionbillion

    • Avatar
      Gustavo July 14, 2018

      Fallout has the best reviews of the franchise by far, and none of the previous films opened lower than 45 million. Sorry, Christopher Robin will not open ahead of it. Besides, they’re opening one week apart. Your prediction makes zero sense.

      • Avatar
        Bor July 14, 2018

        His prediction makes perfect sense if you read it well. He is saying that a $33 million opening would likely be good enough for #1. ahead of (the second weekend of) Mission Impossible, not that Christopher Robin’s opening will be higher than MI’s opening.

      • Avatar
        Gussi July 14, 2018

        Opening ahead the second weekend of MI, that will be around 30M. So yes, it make sense.

      • Avatar
        KillerQueen July 15, 2018

        If Mission Impossible’s second weekend is below the $33M this site is predicting for Christopher Robin, then it will open in the first place, above MI, which will have dropped in second place. The prediction makes a lot of sense.

      • Avatar
        Stevenson July 16, 2018

        He is saying that Christopher Robin will outgross Mission: Impossible’s 2nd weekend…..

        • Avatar
          ManOfBronze July 16, 2018

          And will most likely outgross MI in NA when all is said and done.
          If it wasnt for Tom Cruise these movies would make more money in North America.

          • Avatar
            Randall July 23, 2018

            Tom Cruise is one of the main reasons people go to the MI films.

            His stunts are the biggest selling point, and that goes for NA audiences.

        • Avatar
          Alessio Pasquali July 16, 2018

          Thank you for providing some clarity, Stevenson.

  2. Avatar
    John July 13, 2018

    Really downgrading Fallout? Even after the stellar early reviews? I guess what it may lack in a huge opening it can make up for with legs over a generally weak August.

    • Avatar
      Steve July 14, 2018

      The Mission Impossible movies never open to really big numbers so 63 million would be a good start for it. But they end up having legs for the long run.

      • Avatar
        Randall July 23, 2018

        That’s not true for every film of the MI franchise.

        The original had a huge opening weekend for 1996, and MI4 would have opened over 60 million had it not opened in limited release.


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