Long Range Tracking: ‘Ocean’s 8’ Early Forecasts, Latest ‘Avengers: Infinity War’ Outlook

This week’s report takes a first look at Ocean’s 8, the anticipated continuation of Steven Soderbergh’s rebooted 2001-2007 trilogy, which is currently slated for release on June 8.

The main attraction for the film has thus been far been the decision to shift toward an all-female ensemble led by Sandra Bullock, Cate Blanchett, Anne Hathaway, Helena Bonham Carter, Sarah Paulson, Rihanna, and more. Although George Clooney, Brad Pitt, et al aren’t expected to return, there is word that Matt Damon will reprise his character from the previous films.

Early social media buzz is comparable to that of Bullock’s own 2013 summer hit, The Heat, as Ocean’s previous teaser and latest trailer (below) have been warmly received. The film will effectively serve as the first female-targeted tentpole of summer following a month of May dominated by male-leaning blockbusters, a huge advantage in an industry that is increasingly seeing the benefits of a more diverse release slate. Additionally, writer/director Gary Ross is no stranger to successful female-driven films having helmed 2012’s The Hunger Games adaptation.

Also opening on June 8 will be A24’s sleeper hit candidate Hereditary, but we’re holding off on public forecasts at this time.

Check our initial tracking projection for Ocean’s 8 in the table below.

Avengers: Infinity War Tracking Update

  • Infinity War is redefining the ceiling of pre-release buzz for the superhero genre. Following last week’s increase in tracking projections, Fandango reported a few days ago that the massively anticipated semi-finale to the last ten years of the Marvel Cinematic Universe is outselling all MCU titles (dating back to 2015’s Ant-Man) combined through the same point in the pre-sales cycle. Our own social media metrics continue to reach new heights for the genre, with Twitter activity notably performing 129 percent higher than Captain America: Civil War and 52 percent higher than Avengers: Age of Ultron at comparable points in the pre-release cycle. Outside the MCU, Infinity War is well ahead of Star Wars: The Last Jedi and approaching levels similar to those of Star Wars: The Force Awakens. The Marvel epic’s chances at reaching that latter film’s all-time opening weekend record of $247.97 million are increasingly possible based on current trends.

At this time, Boxoffice’s tracking ranges for the next Marvel tentpole are:

Domestic Opening Weekend: $235 million – $255 million
Domestic Total Gross: $565 million – $650 million

Updates to follow as necessary in the weeks ahead.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
4/20/2018 I Feel Pretty $17,000,000 $57,000,000 3,200 STXfilms
4/20/2018 Super Troopers 2 $5,000,000 $9,000,000 2,000 Fox Searchlight
4/20/2018 Traffik $3,500,000 $8,500,000 -3% 1,000 Lionsgate / Summit
4/27/2018 Avengers: Infinity War $235,000,000 4% $600,000,000 2% 4,200 Disney / Marvel
5/4/2018 Bad Samaritan n/a n/a Electric Entertainment
5/4/2018 Overboard $14,000,000 $39,000,000 Lionsgate / Pantelion
5/4/2018 Tully n/a n/a Focus Features
5/11/2018 Breaking In $14,000,000 $37,500,000 Universal
5/11/2018 Life of the Party $21,000,000 $54,000,000 Warner Bros. / New Line
5/18/2018 Book Club $6,000,000 $19,000,000 Paramount
5/18/2018 Deadpool 2 $100,000,000 $242,000,000 Fox
5/18/2018 Show Dogs $8,000,000 $25,000,000 Open Road
5/25/2018 Solo: A Star Wars Story $150,000,000 $390,000,000 Disney
6/1/2018 Action Point $17,000,000 $42,500,000 Paramount
6/1/2018 Adrift $10,000,000 $34,000,000 STXfilms
6/1/2018 Upgrade n/a n/a OTL Releasing / BH Tilt
6/8/2018 Hereditary n/a n/a A24
6/8/2018 Ocean’s 8 $42,000,000 NEW $145,000,000 NEW Warner Bros.

Ocean’s 8 Official Trailer

Shawn Robbins

11 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Nick April 13, 2018

    You guys are getting damn lazy with some of the more low-key releases. 4/18 n/a’s is ridiculous. If it says it’s going wide, just assume it’s going wide and give a prediction!

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Release April 16, 2018

      You are literally complaining about letters on a page….and I’m literally complaining about you doing so. We both need to get a grip.

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    Nasir April 14, 2018

    Sir what do you think about final world wide gross of Infinity WAR?What are final worldwide projections or predictions?

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Miller MB April 18, 2018

      My guess would be a benchmark of that of Age of Ultron’s international market total, meaning that Infinity War may just almost hit $1 Billion for places not in America. I’d say it’d be fair say that it might get a bit over $1.5-1.6 billion worldwide. Maybe a bit more more.

      Reply
  3. Avatar
    J April 14, 2018

    Yeah, I’d say $250 million is about right for Infinity War, enough to be the highest opening of all time but just barely inching out The Force Awakens.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      David Howell April 15, 2018

      And, of course, TFA would hold the inflation-adjusted record (albeit with more than a little cheap assist from those $60 marathon tickets.

      The main challenge for Infinity War might be that its new date puts it against the NFL Draft, the 7pm Thursday “preview” slots going directly against the first round. Then again, that’s not new competition for an Avengers movie, as Age of Ultron did the same… and the AMC Ridge Park Square 8 in suburban Cleveland has sold out all three of its 2D 7pm/7:15pm screenings and the 6pm “fan event” 3D screening. I repeat… in *Cleveland*, there’s an AMC multiplex that’s sold out Thursday screenings that are going directly against the draft, with the exception of one 7pm 3D screening that’s about 80% full.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        D April 15, 2018

        Of course, with NFL ratings going down over the past year, comic book movies seem to be more popular than than the NFL right now.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          ManOfBronze April 16, 2018

          Whats an NFL?

          Reply
  4. Avatar
    Norbert April 16, 2018

    Why the N/A For Hereditary?

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    William Chiang April 16, 2018

    I finally think the BoxOffice estimates are getting closer to realism. No matter the cultural phenomena that Blank Panther has proven to be, this will be bigger. We should be looking at The Avengers (original) adjusted for inflation at $700 million domestic as the benchmark for Infinity War. Opening weekend seems about right I think it will ultimately take the record by a good margin anywhere between $250-$275 million. Just a sidenote, $2 billion global, look at the foreign numbers for both Avengers films compared to other standalone Marvel films. $1 billion foreign easy.

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    dsak April 18, 2018

    Super Troopers 2 is getting a wide release. I can’t see it grossing $9 million or less. I’d imagine it will end up around $20-25 million.

    Reply

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