Long Range Tracking: ‘Rampage’ & ‘Super Troopers 2’ Early Forecasts; ‘Tomb Raider’ & ‘Death Wish’ Trending Up

This week’s report takes an early look at two wide releases slated for April 20 and how they are currently expected to perform at the box office during the penultimate weekend before summer. Check out the eight-week forecast below, including our updated tracking for several upcoming releases.

Leading the charge that weekend will be the latest Dwayne Johnson actioner, Rampage, which is based on the 1980s era arcade game of the same name. Given the mixed history of game-to-film adaptations, Johnson’s star power will be crucial to making this one succeed. Director Brad Peyton previously helmed the leading man with great commercial success in 2015’s San Andreas, but social media buzz is fairly modest compared for Rampage compared to that and Johnson’s bigger hits. Opening three weeks after Ready Player One and two weeks before Avengers: Infinity War could further soften potential impact in the late spring marketplace.

Meanwhile, Super Troopers 2 will finally make its way to theaters after years of demand and anticipation from the original film’s cult following. Most of the franchise’s Facebook footprint is a byproduct of that aforementioned first film, while Twitter buzz is generally soft at this point in time. Being released under the Fox Searchlight banner, a major marketing campaign on the level of high profile comedic sequels shouldn’t be expected until closer to release.

Focus Features also has Jason Reitman and Diablo Cody’s Tully slated to open on April 20. Forecasts will follow closer to that date when/if the extent of its planned wide release is confirmed.

Current 8-Week Tracking:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
3/2/2018 Death Wish $17,000,000 13% $43,500,000 12% 2,700 Annapurna / MGM
3/2/2018 Red Sparrow $20,000,000 -7% $60,000,000 -9% 2,900 Fox
3/9/2018 Gringo $4,000,000 $10,000,000 1,500 STXfilms
3/9/2018 The Hurricane Heist $5,000,000 $12,500,000 2,300 Entertainment Studios
3/9/2018 Strangers: Prey at Night $7,000,000 17% $15,000,000 17% 2,300 Aviron
3/9/2018 A Wrinkle In Time $48,000,000 -8% $142,000,000 -8% 3,800 Disney
3/16/2018 I Can Only Imagine $1,500,000 NEW $3,000,000 NEW Roadside Attractions
3/16/2018 Love, Simon $13,000,000 $37,000,000 -8% Fox
3/16/2018 Tomb Raider $24,000,000 9% $60,000,000 9% Warner Bros.
3/23/2018 Midnight Sun $6,000,000 $15,000,000 Open Road
3/23/2018 Pacific Rim Uprising $20,000,000 $49,000,000 Universal
3/23/2018 Paul, Apostle of Christ $14,500,000 $51,000,000 Sony / Columbia
3/23/2018 Sherlock Gnomes $12,000,000 $45,000,000 Paramount
3/23/2018 Unsane n/a n/a Bleecker Street
3/29/2018 Ready Player One $54,000,000 $180,000,000 Warner Bros.
3/30/2018 Acrimony $19,000,000 $46,000,000 Lionsgate
3/30/2018 Bad Samaritan n/a n/a Electric Entertainment
3/30/2018 God’s Not Dead: A Light In Darkness $6,000,000 $15,400,000 Pure Flix
4/6/2018 Blockers $19,000,000 $63,000,000 Universal
4/6/2018 Chappaquiddick n/a n/a Entertainment Studios
4/6/2018 A Quiet Place $20,000,000 $64,000,000 Paramount
4/13/2018 Overboard $14,000,000 $39,000,000 Lionsgate / Pantelion
4/13/2018 Truth or Dare $23,000,000 $47,000,000 Universal
4/20/2018 Rampage $25,000,000 NEW $62,000,000 NEW Warner Bros. / New Line
4/20/2018 Super Troopers 2 $5,000,000 NEW $10,000,000 NEW Fox Searchlight
4/20/2018 Tully n/a NEW n/a NEW Focus Features
Boxoffice Staff

14 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Whodunit February 23, 2018

    Tomb Raider is lucky it has no real competition the weekend of its release. Black Panther will be slowing down. Red Sparrow may be a bit “too adult” for the younger crowd. And A Wrinkle in Time doesn’t seem like direct competition.

    All that being said, it’s not a movie I would pay to see. The trailers didn’t do much for me. It may turn out to be fun. But I’m quite happy to wait until it comes online.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      DVEAM March 10, 2018

      Reviews so far have been overwhelmingly strong and positive. I suggest you check it out because trailers aren’t what define a movie and if it’s good I think it’s more fun to watch an adventure spectacle like this in theaters.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        456! March 14, 2018

        The reviews haven’t been strong and are not positive at all. Its at %43 on RT.

        Reply
      • Avatar
        Whodunit March 14, 2018

        The reviews haven’t been great at all. Sitting at 43 % on Rotten Tomatoes.

        Reply
  2. Avatar
    fsakf February 23, 2018

    Super Troopers seems really low for how popular the original is.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    MimikyuILoveYou February 23, 2018

    I don’t think Wrinkle in Time will open that high once reviews and word of mouth kick in. I saw an extended preview at The Disneyland Resort and it looks really dumb. I haven’t read the book, but it seems like every other searching through time/space movie. It was the first time I’ve seen one of the previews at DLR that no one in the audience clapped at the end.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Ed February 25, 2018

      I will say no

      Reply
  4. Avatar
    magikarpcatcher February 24, 2018

    Why the hell would the 4th weekend of Ready Player One effect Rampage?

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    John Johnson February 25, 2018

    You need to revise your predictions for I Can Only Imagine. Both trailers for it on Facebook have 30+ million views. Trust me this movie will be a hit, because it’s about the making of a beloved song in the christian community.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Alan T February 28, 2018

      I agree, this movie is going to blow up big time. It has the potential to be the first $100 million faith based film. Trailer views are at 82 million and counting. Woodlawn, the last film from the Erwin Brothers, opened to $4 million. I Can Only Imagine is based on the best selling Christian song of all time. It is going to blow past those Woodlawn numbers.

      Reply
  6. Avatar
    Justin February 26, 2018

    No chance Super Troopers 2 opens that low. At least double and could break out, any body who smoked weed in the early 2000’s is going to see it and that’s a lot of people.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Brad February 27, 2018

      Not sure what you are smoking, but that prediction is accurate. This could only end up getting released in 800-1100 theaters.

      Reply
  7. Avatar
    Joe Daniels February 28, 2018

    Rampage will gross more than $62 million. It stars Dwayne Johnson and Jeffrey Dean Morgan, this movie will easily open to $40 million.

    Reply
  8. Avatar
    hbjoshi April 18, 2018

    Super Troopers is funny. Must see

    Reply

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