Long Range Tracking: ‘Rampage’ & ‘Super Troopers 2’ Early Forecasts; ‘Tomb Raider’ & ‘Death Wish’ Trending Up
This week’s report takes an early look at two wide releases slated for April 20 and how they are currently expected to perform at the box office during the penultimate weekend before summer. Check out the eight-week forecast below, including our updated tracking for several upcoming releases.
Leading the charge that weekend will be the latest Dwayne Johnson actioner, Rampage, which is based on the 1980s era arcade game of the same name. Given the mixed history of game-to-film adaptations, Johnson’s star power will be crucial to making this one succeed. Director Brad Peyton previously helmed the leading man with great commercial success in 2015’s San Andreas, but social media buzz is fairly modest compared for Rampage compared to that and Johnson’s bigger hits. Opening three weeks after Ready Player One and two weeks before Avengers: Infinity War could further soften potential impact in the late spring marketplace.
Meanwhile, Super Troopers 2 will finally make its way to theaters after years of demand and anticipation from the original film’s cult following. Most of the franchise’s Facebook footprint is a byproduct of that aforementioned first film, while Twitter buzz is generally soft at this point in time. Being released under the Fox Searchlight banner, a major marketing campaign on the level of high profile comedic sequels shouldn’t be expected until closer to release.
Focus Features also has Jason Reitman and Diablo Cody’s Tully slated to open on April 20. Forecasts will follow closer to that date when/if the extent of its planned wide release is confirmed.
Current 8-Week Tracking:
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Opening||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total||% Chg from Last Week||Estimated Location Count||Distributor|
|3/2/2018||Death Wish||$17,000,000||13%||$43,500,000||12%||2,700||Annapurna / MGM|
|3/9/2018||The Hurricane Heist||$5,000,000||$12,500,000||2,300||Entertainment Studios|
|3/9/2018||Strangers: Prey at Night||$7,000,000||17%||$15,000,000||17%||2,300||Aviron|
|3/9/2018||A Wrinkle In Time||$48,000,000||-8%||$142,000,000||-8%||3,800||Disney|
|3/16/2018||I Can Only Imagine||$1,500,000||NEW||$3,000,000||NEW||Roadside Attractions|
|3/16/2018||Tomb Raider||$24,000,000||9%||$60,000,000||9%||Warner Bros.|
|3/23/2018||Midnight Sun||$6,000,000||$15,000,000||Open Road|
|3/23/2018||Pacific Rim Uprising||$20,000,000||$49,000,000||Universal|
|3/23/2018||Paul, Apostle of Christ||$14,500,000||$51,000,000||Sony / Columbia|
|3/29/2018||Ready Player One||$54,000,000||$180,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|3/30/2018||Bad Samaritan||n/a||n/a||Electric Entertainment|
|3/30/2018||God’s Not Dead: A Light In Darkness||$6,000,000||$15,400,000||Pure Flix|
|4/6/2018||A Quiet Place||$20,000,000||$64,000,000||Paramount|
|4/13/2018||Overboard||$14,000,000||$39,000,000||Lionsgate / Pantelion|
|4/13/2018||Truth or Dare||$23,000,000||$47,000,000||Universal|
|4/20/2018||Rampage||$25,000,000||NEW||$62,000,000||NEW||Warner Bros. / New Line|
|4/20/2018||Super Troopers 2||$5,000,000||NEW||$10,000,000||NEW||Fox Searchlight|