Long Range Tracking: Shazam!, Pet Sematary, & The Best of Enemies
This week’s report takes a first look at the beginning of Q2 2019 with the release of three studio titles on April 5.
Opening Weekend Range: $40 – 60 million
- The promise of a coming-of-age entry in the DC film universe could provide a welcome change of pace for fans and general audiences alike, especially with initial comparisons to the modern classic Big. Appeal to teens could be particularly notable, which could drive significant upside to current forecasts.
- Early social media buzz and trailer reactions have been very encouraging. The film earned a 77 percent interest score on Trailer Impact, not far behind the 83 percent of Aquaman nearly two months from its release.
- This film’s strong comedic approach could represent another fresh aspect to attract moviegoers looking for a pure dose of popcorn fun from the genre leading up to a “darker” Avengers: Endgame later in the month.
- By and large, the character isn’t widely known outside of DC fans. That may not be a problem in the long run if reviews are strong, but it could translate to longer legs as opposed to the big debut typical of many superhero films.
- Releasing one week after Dumbo, there may be competition for some of the family audience that often drives superhero titles. The aforementioned Avengers sequel opening three weeks later will represent a looming threat for that audience as well.
Opening Weekend Range: $20 – 30 million
- As noted many times in recent years, the horror genre has never been more lucrative than it is with today’s audiences.
- The added fan base of Stephen King and fans of the original 1989 film and its sequel introduce an element of nostalgia that might benefit this remake’s opening.
- Releasing two weeks after Us could prove challenging if Jordan Peele’s next film earns strong audience approval.
The Best of Enemies
Opening Weekend Range: $7 – 12 million
- Taraji P. Henson and Sam Rockwell are widely respected actors whose fans may be intrigued by the chemistry the pair have on screen.
- The spring slate is largely devoid of adult-leaning dramas from major studios, leaving an open space for this to catch on if reception hits the mark.
- Similar dramas like Marshall and Black or White weren’t able to catch on at the box office despite their important subject matter, leaving us on the cautious end of expectations for now.
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Release Tracking||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total Forecast||% Chg from Last Week||Estimated Location Count||Distributor|
|2/13/2019||Happy Death Day 2U||$20,000,000||$52,000,000||3,000||Universal|
|2/13/2019||Isn’t It Romantic||$15,000,000||$57,000,000||3,300||Warner Bros.|
|2/14/2019||Alita: Battle Angel||$17,000,000||6%||$48,000,000||6%||3,700||Fox|
|2/22/2019||Fighting with My Family||$8,000,000||$25,000,000||2,200||MGM|
|2/22/2019||How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World||$49,000,000||$173,000,000||4,200||Universal|
|3/1/2019||Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral||$27,000,000||$68,000,000||Lionsgate|
|3/8/2019||Captain Marvel||$160,000,000||$440,000,000||Disney / Marvel|
|3/15/2019||No Manches Frida 2||n/a||n/a||Lionsgate / Pantelion Films|
|3/15/2019||Five Feet Apart||$11,000,000||$37,000,000||Lionsgate|
|3/29/2019||Hotel Mumbai||n/a||n/a||Bleecker Street|
|4/5/2019||The Best of Enemies||$10,000,000||NEW||$30,000,000||NEW||STX|
|4/5/2019||Pet Sematary (2019)||$28,000,000||NEW||$65,000,000||NEW||Paramount|
Tracking and forecasts are subject to change each week as marketing, reviews, and other factors are taken into consideration.
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Alex Edghill contributed to this report