Long Range Tracking: ‘Solo: A Star Wars Story’ & ‘Deadpool 2’ Updates; Early ‘Sicario: Day of the Soldado’ & ‘Uncle Drew’ Outlooks
Our deep dive into summer tracking continues this week with key updates on May’s remaining blockbusters, plus an early look at the final weekend of June.
Opening Weekend Range: $120 – 145 million
Anticipation remains strong for the Merc with a Mouth’s sequel as his second coming on May 18 approaches. Social media metrics remain behind those of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Suicide Squad, and the first Deadpool, while traditional tracking is generally level with the former two of that group.
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Opening Weekend Range: $125 – 150 million (3-day) / $153 – 185 million (4-day)
Following up on our original tracking report over one month ago, the second anthology/spin-off title in the Star Wars universe is generating strong social media buzz with mentions and conversations significantly ahead of Rogue One and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. The young Han film just appeared on traditional tracking this week in line with the pre-release levels of Rogue One (although, it trails the Guardians sequel).
The four-day Memorial weekend release naturally skews comparisons to non-holiday openers, so we’re slightly adjusting tracking figures this week and expanding to include likely ranges. We continue to expect the film will break Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End‘s eleven-year-old Memorial weekend record opening.
Sicario: Day of the Soldado and Uncle Drew
Slated to open on June 29, the Sicario sequel could bring back fans of 2015’s strongly received sleeper hit thanks to returning stars Benicio del Toro and Josh Brolin. Early trailer reactions and social media reception have been positive.
Meanwhile, Uncle Drew is a sleeper candidate with a strong presence on Twitter already two months out. A strong cast including Tiffany Haddish, Lil Rel Howery, Kyrie Irving, and Shaquille O’Neal are driving early buzz for the comedy.
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Opening||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total||% Chg from Last Week||Estimated Location Count||Distributor|
|5/11/2018||Life of the Party||$21,000,000||$54,000,000||3,500||Warner Bros. / New Line|
|5/18/2018||Show Dogs||$8,000,000||$25,000,000||2,400||Global Road Films|
|5/25/2018||Solo: A Star Wars Story||$142,000,000||-5%||$390,000,000||Disney|
|6/1/2018||Upgrade||n/a||n/a||OTL Releasing / BH Tilt|
|6/8/2018||Hotel Artemis||n/a||n/a||Global Road|
|6/8/2018||Ocean’s 8||$42,000,000||$145,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|6/15/2018||The Incredibles 2||$110,000,000||$395,000,000||Disney / Pixar|
|6/15/2018||Untitled Entertainment Studios (2018)||n/a||n/a||Entertainment Studios|
|6/22/2018||Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom||$135,000,000||$340,000,000||Universal|
|6/29/2018||The Hustle||n/a||n/a||Mirror Films / MGM|
|6/29/2018||Sicario: Day of the Soldado||$15,000,000||NEW||$39,000,000||NEW||Sony / Columbia|
|6/29/2018||Uncle Drew||$16,500,000||NEW||$45,000,000||NEW||Lionsgate / Summit|