Long Range Tracking: ‘Solo: A Star Wars Story’ & ‘Deadpool 2’ Updates; Early ‘Sicario: Day of the Soldado’ & ‘Uncle Drew’ Outlooks

Our deep dive into summer tracking continues this week with key updates on May’s remaining blockbusters, plus an early look at the final weekend of June.

Deadpool 2
Opening Weekend Range: $120 – 145 million

Anticipation remains strong for the Merc with a Mouth’s sequel as his second coming on May 18 approaches. Social media metrics remain behind those of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2Suicide Squad, and the first Deadpool, while traditional tracking is generally level with the former two of that group.

Solo: A Star Wars Story
Opening Weekend Range: $125 – 150 million (3-day) / $153 – 185 million (4-day)

Following up on our original tracking report over one month ago, the second anthology/spin-off title in the Star Wars universe is generating strong social media buzz with mentions and conversations significantly ahead of Rogue One and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. The young Han film just appeared on traditional tracking this week in line with the pre-release levels of Rogue One (although, it trails the Guardians sequel).

The four-day Memorial weekend release naturally skews comparisons to non-holiday openers, so we’re slightly adjusting tracking figures this week and expanding to include likely ranges. We continue to expect the film will break Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End‘s eleven-year-old Memorial weekend record opening.

Sicario: Day of the Soldado and Uncle Drew

Slated to open on June 29, the Sicario sequel could bring back fans of 2015’s strongly received sleeper hit thanks to returning stars Benicio del Toro and Josh Brolin. Early trailer reactions and social media reception have been positive.

Meanwhile, Uncle Drew is a sleeper candidate with a strong presence on Twitter already two months out. A strong cast including Tiffany Haddish, Lil Rel Howery, Kyrie Irving, and Shaquille O’Neal are driving early buzz for the comedy.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
5/11/2018 Breaking In $13,000,000 $31,000,000 -11% 2,500 Universal
5/11/2018 Life of the Party $21,000,000 $54,000,000 3,500 Warner Bros. / New Line
5/18/2018 Book Club $9,500,000 19% $30,000,000 20% 2,500 Paramount
5/18/2018 Deadpool 2 $130,000,000 8% $312,000,000 8% 3,700 Fox
5/18/2018 Show Dogs $8,000,000 $25,000,000 2,400 Global Road Films
5/25/2018 Solo: A Star Wars Story $142,000,000 -5% $390,000,000 Disney
6/1/2018 Action Point $17,000,000 $42,500,000 Paramount
6/1/2018 Adrift $10,000,000 $34,000,000 STXfilms
6/1/2018 Upgrade n/a n/a OTL Releasing / BH Tilt
6/8/2018 Hereditary n/a n/a A24
6/8/2018 Hotel Artemis n/a n/a Global Road
6/8/2018 Ocean’s 8 $42,000,000 $145,000,000 Warner Bros.
6/15/2018 The Incredibles 2 $110,000,000 $395,000,000 Disney / Pixar
6/15/2018 Superfly n/a n/a Sony
6/15/2018 Tag $13,000,000 $43,000,000 Warner Bros.
6/15/2018 Untitled Entertainment Studios (2018) n/a n/a Entertainment Studios
6/22/2018 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom $135,000,000 $340,000,000 Universal
6/29/2018 The Hustle n/a n/a Mirror Films / MGM
6/29/2018 Sanju n/a n/a Fox
6/29/2018 Sicario: Day of the Soldado $15,000,000 NEW $39,000,000 NEW Sony / Columbia
6/29/2018 Uncle Drew $16,500,000 NEW $45,000,000 NEW Lionsgate / Summit
Shawn Robbins

8 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Matt May 04, 2018

    When can we expect Hereditary predictions? I’m guessing between $10-$15M opening.

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    DangerS May 04, 2018

    You need to increase your Incredibles 2 prediction.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      That Guy Who Has an Actual Username But BoxOffice.com Blocks My Comments Whenever I Use It May 04, 2018

      I wouldn’t say so. THE INCREDIBLES is popular, certainly, but it’s never been quite on the same level as FINDING NEMO; ergo, it makes sense that INCREDIBLES 2 will perform about as well in relation to FINDING DORY as the first film did in comparison to NEMO, which is what the prediction here shows.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Steve May 04, 2018

      I agree with you I’m gonna say 125 million and finish with about 425.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Fred May 05, 2018

        I’m thinking Incredibles 2 is going to reach $400-plus million domestic as well. It could very well end up being the second biggest grossing domestic film of the summer season behind Infinity War.

        Reply
  3. Avatar
    Steve May 04, 2018

    Deadpool 2 in my opinion will open with 145 million and finish with 350.

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Mark May 04, 2018

    Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom will do more than $135M OW / $340M total. The previous did over $600M and there’s still a lot of buzz around the film, not to mention Chris Pratt.

    I predict the film to open north of $150M and a domestic $445 – 460 million.

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    Ben May 05, 2018

    I’d flip solo and Deadpool and then flip Incredibles and Jurassic World for OW, Incredibles will finish well north of 400 and if it’s truly phenomenal might even reach 500

    Reply

Leave reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *