Long Range Tracking: ‘Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,’ ‘Mortal Engines,’ ‘The Mule,’ & ‘Second Act’

October 20 Update: Shortly after this report’s publication yesterday, STX delayed Second Act‘s release by one week to December 21.  Our updated opening weekend tracking (down from $10 million when slated for December 14) is listed in the chart below.

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This week’s report takes a look at the December 14 – 16 frame, currently slated to see four wide releases.

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Opening Weekend Range: $17 – 27 million

The brand name is likely to help this animated take serve as a strong option for young viewers in the market through the remainder of the holiday season, although it will probably still be contending with The Grinch and Ralph Breaks the Internet for general family audiences. Early social media buzz and Trailer Impact metrics are encouraging, with the latter earning a 79 percent Average Positive Interest score this week.

Mortal Engines
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 25 million

We’re conservative on this adaptation due in large part to modest social media activity following its trailer campaign thus far. Peter Jackson’s producing role has been featured heavily in marketing, which will be an asset toward attracting fans of The Lord of the Rings films, but the film needs to build strong word of mouth through Christmas and New Year’s to compete with action-driven releases like Aquaman and Bumblebee. Another possible advantage could be that it offers something relatively new in a month filled with more established franchise/universe titles.

The Mule
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 20 million

Tracking is very preliminary at this stage with the film and its trailer only having been announced in recent weeks. Still, we’re confident enough in the potential of star/director Clint Eastwood’s latest project to offer up initial forecasts thanks to encouraging trailer reactions. Bradley Cooper’s supporting role will be an added advantage, and an award season run could give the crime pic long life into early 2019.

Second Act
Opening Weekend Range: $8 – 13 million

Representing the only release of this weekend targeting a predominately female audience will help it serve as a fair counter-programmer. The release of Mary Poppins Returns five days later will likely cut into that target demographic, but there could still be room to attract adult women during the holiday corridor.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
10/26/2018 Hunter Killer $7,500,000 -17% $20,000,000 -23% 2,600 Lionsgate / Summit
10/26/2018 Indivisible $2,000,000 $6,000,000 n/a Pure Flix
10/26/2018 Johnny English Strikes Again $3,250,000 -19% $7,100,000 -19% 500 Universal
11/2/2018 Bohemian Rhapsody $35,000,000 $110,000,000 3,400 Fox
11/2/2018 Tyler Perry’s Nobody’s Fool $13,500,000 -10% $36,000,000 -10% 2,000 Paramount
11/2/2018 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms $21,000,000 $80,000,000 3,300 Disney
11/2/2018 Suspiria (Wide) n/a n/a n/a Amazon Studios
11/9/2018 The Girl in the Spider’s Web $14,000,000 -7% $40,000,000 -11% Sony / Columbia
11/9/2018 Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch $70,000,000 -11% $290,000,000 -5% Universal
11/9/2018 Overlord $10,500,000 -25% $30,000,000 -29% Paramount
11/16/2018 Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald $75,000,000 $222,000,000 Warner Bros.
11/16/2018 Instant Family $18,000,000 n/a Paramount
11/16/2018 A Private War (Expansion) n/a n/a Aviron
11/16/2018 Widows $20,000,000 $78,000,000 Fox
11/21/2018 Creed 2 $23,000,000 $80,000,000 MGM
11/21/2018 The Front Runner (Wide Expansion) n/a n/a Sony
11/21/2018 Ralph Breaks the Internet $50,000,000 $200,000,000 Disney
11/21/2018 Robin Hood $9,500,000 $26,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit
11/21/2018 Green Book n/a n/a Universal
11/30/2018 The Possession of Hannah Grace n/a n/a Sony / Columbia
12/7/2018 The Silence n/a n/a Global Road
12/14/2018 Mortal Engines $16,000,000 NEW $55,000,000 NEW Universal
12/14/2018 The Mule $14,000,000 NEW $80,000,000 NEW Warner Bros.
12/21/2018 Second Act $9,000,000 NEW $40,000,000 NEW STX
12/14/2018 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse $22,000,000 NEW $90,000,000 NEW Sony / Columbia

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Shawn Robbins

22 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Stuart October 19, 2018

    What the heck is that Spider-Man numbers? Do you seriously think that it will open lower than Smallfoot?

    Reply
    • Avatar
      kaytee October 23, 2018

      Spiderman looks like a Netflix series to be honest, while Smallfoot looks like an actual movie, albeit cheap looking.

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    Malik A. October 19, 2018

    Your Spider-Verse prediction is way too low. I think it will open between $30 and 40 million. I also think it can have long legs and survive the Christmas competition, if it lives up to the hype.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      David sanchez October 19, 2018

      they are definitely lowballing into the Spider-verse I think this one will open between 25-40 and end with 150+ million

      Reply
  3. Avatar
    Thomas Stidman October 19, 2018

    I think Into the Spider-verse does $35-45 million. Spider-man has a ton of good will after Far from home and the trailers look great for the film. I may raise it higher depending on reviews. It is my second most anticipated film of the Holiday season behind Wreck it Ralph 2. I hear alot of buzz from families I know on Social media and not just Superhero fans.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Sebastian October 19, 2018

      Same

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Randalph Wrecked October 23, 2018

      I think Wreck it Ralph will compete with Spider-verse except Ralph is a little more original while Spider-verse seem like a Netflix or Youtube video to me to be honest. But we will see.

      Reply
  4. Avatar
    Brad October 19, 2018

    I saw the trailer in theaters last weekend for The Mule and had no idea about it. The trailer gave me goosebumps which rarely happens. Looks very intense. The last time Bradley Cooper and Eastwood worked together, made a ton of money. This won’t be close, but I think the high 20s could happen or more, especially with reviews.

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    bri October 20, 2018

    Spider man should be higher for sure. i think 35-40 million opening is about right and a closing of about 140-150 million. also Creed should be higher for thanksgiving i can see it going close to 30 million and about 100 million closing.

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    Matt D October 20, 2018

    I literally laughed out loud at the Spider-Man prediction. Mary Poppins and Aquaman are competition but not enough competition to have this film only make $90 M. I’m saying a $40-45 M OW prediction and finish around $290-350 M because of the holiday B.O.. No way this film underperforms with only $90 M.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Heidi H October 22, 2018

      So the Spider Man animated movie will do more domestically than the live action Spider Man movie that also had Iron Man in it? I need some of that stuff you are into.

      Reply
  7. Avatar
    Rayyan Ahmad October 20, 2018

    spider-verse is way too low
    im predicting 40-55 million, trailers are getting a lot of hype from everybody
    it will probably finish around 180-205 million domestically

    Reply
  8. Avatar
    Revan October 20, 2018

    Biggest movies for nov/dec:
    Dr Seuss the Grinch – 330 million domestic
    Aquaman – 315 million domestic
    Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald – 250 million domestic
    Ralph Breaks the Internet – 240 million domestic
    Spider-Man into the Spider-Verse – 160 million domestic
    Mary Poppins Returns – 150 million domestic
    The Nutcracker and the Four Realms – 140 million domestic
    Bumblebee – 100 million domestic
    Biggest bomb: Mortal Engines
    Robin Hood will be saved by overseas but only 60 million domestic

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Viktor October 21, 2018

      Oh, Robin Hood would be a hit if it could gross 60 million domestic. It won’t pass 30 million.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      RussVB October 22, 2018

      Wish I shared your optimism but i think it’s as least a 50/50 chance that 2018 has no more 300M earners in the pipeline. I anticipate both Grinch & Aquaman 100M lower than you.
      Happily though, I am a crap forecaster.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Revan October 27, 2018

        Lol. Illumination’s Dr Seuss the lorax debuted to 70m domestic lol and the Grinch is tons more popular than the lorax… lorax finished with 230m domestic… 90m debut for Grinch makes sense…

        Reply
    • Avatar
      George October 25, 2018

      Mary Poppins is going to make a lot more than that. The early word is exceptional.

      Reply
  9. Avatar
    kevind October 22, 2018

    spiderman is too high. it looks like its made for TV. Mortal Engines is too low as well.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      sandy October 25, 2018

      agreed. If it makes 20m, it will probably have tripled its budget by the look of it.

      Reply
  10. Avatar
    kaytee October 23, 2018

    Mule will over perform mark it. The big question mark is Mortal Engines but the trailer looks really amazing. The rest is about right though to be honest I thought Spiderman is Netflix series.

    Reply
  11. Avatar
    Joe November 16, 2018

    Mortal engines is too low. I’m excepting Fotr numbers and will push aquaman and bumblebee into 3rd and 4th place. Mary poppins will give a run for its money. The mule is good and it’s too low.
    Spider into the spider verse. I don’t go to animated films unless it’s Pixar, Wes Anderson or Hayao

    Reply
  12. Avatar
    joe November 17, 2018

    Mortal Engines $165 million domestic
    Mary Poppins Returns $170 million domestic
    Green Book $55 million

    Ralph breaks the internet $240 million

    Fantastic Beasts 2 $180 million

    Aquaman $135 million

    Bumblebee $120 million

    Spiderman into the Spiderverse $140 million

    Biggest bomb: mary queen of scots

    Reply

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