Long Range Tracking: ‘Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,’ ‘Mortal Engines,’ ‘The Mule,’ & ‘Second Act’
October 20 Update: Shortly after this report’s publication yesterday, STX delayed Second Act‘s release by one week to December 21. Our updated opening weekend tracking (down from $10 million when slated for December 14) is listed in the chart below.
This week’s report takes a look at the December 14 – 16 frame, currently slated to see four wide releases.
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Opening Weekend Range: $17 – 27 million
The brand name is likely to help this animated take serve as a strong option for young viewers in the market through the remainder of the holiday season, although it will probably still be contending with The Grinch and Ralph Breaks the Internet for general family audiences. Early social media buzz and Trailer Impact metrics are encouraging, with the latter earning a 79 percent Average Positive Interest score this week.
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 25 million
We’re conservative on this adaptation due in large part to modest social media activity following its trailer campaign thus far. Peter Jackson’s producing role has been featured heavily in marketing, which will be an asset toward attracting fans of The Lord of the Rings films, but the film needs to build strong word of mouth through Christmas and New Year’s to compete with action-driven releases like Aquaman and Bumblebee. Another possible advantage could be that it offers something relatively new in a month filled with more established franchise/universe titles.
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 20 million
Tracking is very preliminary at this stage with the film and its trailer only having been announced in recent weeks. Still, we’re confident enough in the potential of star/director Clint Eastwood’s latest project to offer up initial forecasts thanks to encouraging trailer reactions. Bradley Cooper’s supporting role will be an added advantage, and an award season run could give the crime pic long life into early 2019.
Opening Weekend Range: $8 – 13 million
Representing the only release of this weekend targeting a predominately female audience will help it serve as a fair counter-programmer. The release of Mary Poppins Returns five days later will likely cut into that target demographic, but there could still be room to attract adult women during the holiday corridor.
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Opening||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total||% Chg from Last Week||Estimated Location Count||Distributor|
|10/26/2018||Hunter Killer||$7,500,000||-17%||$20,000,000||-23%||2,600||Lionsgate / Summit|
|10/26/2018||Johnny English Strikes Again||$3,250,000||-19%||$7,100,000||-19%||500||Universal|
|11/2/2018||Tyler Perry’s Nobody’s Fool||$13,500,000||-10%||$36,000,000||-10%||2,000||Paramount|
|11/2/2018||The Nutcracker and the Four Realms||$21,000,000||$80,000,000||3,300||Disney|
|11/2/2018||Suspiria (Wide)||n/a||n/a||n/a||Amazon Studios|
|11/9/2018||The Girl in the Spider’s Web||$14,000,000||-7%||$40,000,000||-11%||Sony / Columbia|
|11/9/2018||Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch||$70,000,000||-11%||$290,000,000||-5%||Universal|
|11/16/2018||Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald||$75,000,000||$222,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|11/16/2018||A Private War (Expansion)||n/a||n/a||Aviron|
|11/21/2018||The Front Runner (Wide Expansion)||n/a||n/a||Sony|
|11/21/2018||Ralph Breaks the Internet||$50,000,000||$200,000,000||Disney|
|11/21/2018||Robin Hood||$9,500,000||$26,000,000||Lionsgate / Summit|
|11/30/2018||The Possession of Hannah Grace||n/a||n/a||Sony / Columbia|
|12/7/2018||The Silence||n/a||n/a||Global Road|
|12/14/2018||The Mule||$14,000,000||NEW||$80,000,000||NEW||Warner Bros.|
|12/14/2018||Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse||$22,000,000||NEW||$90,000,000||NEW||Sony / Columbia|
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