Long Range Tracking: ‘A Star Is Born’ Climbs the Chart; ‘Hunter Killer’ & ‘Johnny English Strikes Again’ First Looks

This week’s report takes an early look at the final weekend of October as a busy month comes to a close before the holiday season officially kicks in. We’re also offering a significant update on a highly anticipated release earlier in the month…

A Star Is Born
Opening Weekend Range: $35 – 55 million (up from $25 – 35 million)

Following up on our initial analysis of the star-driven remake, the film continues to gain momentum as release approaches. Warner Bros. was confident enough to drop the review embargo today — over a full month ahead of opening day — and critics are praising the film, confirming earlier expectations that it could be a strong award season player.

From the numbers side, forecast models are even more bullish than before thanks to strong social media activity and interest metrics from our Trailer Impact surveys. On both fronts, A Star Is Born had been pacing closely to — and ahead of, in some scenarios — the trends of Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again at the same point before its release. That was before the review embargo dropped today, which should only serve to boost interest and awareness going forward.

For now, we’re expecting fans of the original films and the Gaga/Cooper pairing to drive some relative front-loading (compared to leggier hits like Greatest Showman and La La Land), but we’ll continue to look at the film closely in the coming weeks as it and Venom are aiming to combine for a stellar first weekend at the October box office.

Hunter Killer
Opening Weekend Range: $12 – 17 million

Lionsgate’s Hunter Killer will hope to follow in the footsteps of numerous male-driven action/thrillers that have performed well so far in 2018 when it opens in late October. The film’s ensemble led by Gerard Butler, Gary Oldman, Linda Cardellini, and Common will be definite advantages toward that goal, as well as the fact that not many films aimed at older male audiences will be opening around this portion of the calendar. Early comps include the likes of Mile 22Den of ThievesGeostorm, and American Assassin.

Johnny English Strikes Again
Opening Weekend Range: $3 – 5 million

This franchise is built for overseas play, underlined by the fact that 2011’s Johnny English Reborn earned 95 percent of its $160.1 million global revenue from outside North American borders. We’re expecting similar results to that sequel’s $3.8 million opening / $8.3 million total on the domestic side, which would be a healthy result driven by the franchise’s loyal fans looking forward to a new chapter in the series.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
9/7/2018 God Bless the Broken Road $2,500,000 67% $6,300,000 68% 1,200 Freestyle Releasing
9/7/2018 The Nun $39,000,000 $93,000,000 3,700 Warner Bros. / New Line
9/7/2018 Peppermint $13,000,000 $34,000,000 2,850 STX Entertainment
9/14/2018 The Predator (2018) $30,000,000 $66,000,000 3,600 Fox
9/14/2018 A Simple Favor $13,500,000 -4% $38,600,000 -4% 3,000 Lionsgate
9/14/2018 Unbroken: Path to Redemption $2,000,000 $4,900,000 1,300 Pure Flix
9/14/2018 White Boy Rick $10,000,000 $32,000,000 2,700 Sony / Studio 8
9/21/2018 Fahrenheit 11/9 n/a n/a Briarcliff
9/21/2018 The House with a Clock In Its Walls $24,000,000 $79,000,000 Universal
9/21/2018 Life Itself n/a n/a Amazon Studios
9/28/2018 Hell Fest $9,500,000 $22,000,000 Lionsgate / CBS Films
9/28/2018 Little Women (2018) n/a n/a Pinnacle Peak
9/28/2018 Night School (2018) $17,500,000 $55,000,000 Universal
9/28/2018 Smallfoot $23,000,000 $80,000,000 Warner Bros.
10/5/2018 A Star Is Born $44,000,000 47% $150,000,000 7% Warner Bros.
10/5/2018 Venom (2018) $65,000,000 $135,000,000 Sony / Columbia
10/12/2018 Bad Times at the El Royale $13,000,000 $40,000,000 Fox
10/12/2018 First Man $20,000,000 $90,000,000 Universal
10/12/2018 Goosebumps: Haunted Halloween $14,000,000 $45,000,000 Sony / Columbia
10/19/2018 Halloween (2018) $60,000,000 $142,000,000 Universal
10/19/2018 The Hate U Give n/a n/a Fox
10/19/2018 Serenity (2018) n/a n/a Aviron
10/26/2018 Hunter Killer $14,000,000 NEW $41,000,000 NEW Lionsgate / Summit
10/26/2018 Indivisible n/a n/a Pure Flix
10/26/2018 Johnny English Strikes Again $4,000,000 NEW $8,750,000 NEW Universal

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Shawn Robbins

3 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Deovante Teal September 01, 2018

    Should probably update Bad Times as well. The first trailer’s low buzz turned out to be a fluke i guess? Maybe everyone was on vacation?? The second trailer has clocked up a surprisingly strong number of views and outpaced the teaser badly and social buzz is pretty solid for a niche film. I feel like it’ll do a bit better although there is competition. Its sure to be a sleeper hit

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Stevenson September 02, 2018

    Wow October is look extremely strong for box office. Halloween and Venom is expected to break the opening weekend record for October. I think Halloween is a little bullish though.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Mark September 11, 2018

    Predator qill make 35 mill or more opening weekend. Halloween will make huge numbers. But prob more 70 million range opening weekend. Johnny English i wanna see but it should go dtv. Its not popular and they waited to long for part 3.

    Reply

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