Long Range Tracking: ‘A Star Is Born’ Climbs the Chart; ‘Hunter Killer’ & ‘Johnny English Strikes Again’ First Looks
This week’s report takes an early look at the final weekend of October as a busy month comes to a close before the holiday season officially kicks in. We’re also offering a significant update on a highly anticipated release earlier in the month…
A Star Is Born
Opening Weekend Range: $35 – 55 million (up from $25 – 35 million)
Following up on our initial analysis of the star-driven remake, the film continues to gain momentum as release approaches. Warner Bros. was confident enough to drop the review embargo today — over a full month ahead of opening day — and critics are praising the film, confirming earlier expectations that it could be a strong award season player.
From the numbers side, forecast models are even more bullish than before thanks to strong social media activity and interest metrics from our Trailer Impact surveys. On both fronts, A Star Is Born had been pacing closely to — and ahead of, in some scenarios — the trends of Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again at the same point before its release. That was before the review embargo dropped today, which should only serve to boost interest and awareness going forward.
For now, we’re expecting fans of the original films and the Gaga/Cooper pairing to drive some relative front-loading (compared to leggier hits like Greatest Showman and La La Land), but we’ll continue to look at the film closely in the coming weeks as it and Venom are aiming to combine for a stellar first weekend at the October box office.
Opening Weekend Range: $12 – 17 million
Lionsgate’s Hunter Killer will hope to follow in the footsteps of numerous male-driven action/thrillers that have performed well so far in 2018 when it opens in late October. The film’s ensemble led by Gerard Butler, Gary Oldman, Linda Cardellini, and Common will be definite advantages toward that goal, as well as the fact that not many films aimed at older male audiences will be opening around this portion of the calendar. Early comps include the likes of Mile 22, Den of Thieves, Geostorm, and American Assassin.
Johnny English Strikes Again
Opening Weekend Range: $3 – 5 million
This franchise is built for overseas play, underlined by the fact that 2011’s Johnny English Reborn earned 95 percent of its $160.1 million global revenue from outside North American borders. We’re expecting similar results to that sequel’s $3.8 million opening / $8.3 million total on the domestic side, which would be a healthy result driven by the franchise’s loyal fans looking forward to a new chapter in the series.
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Opening||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total||% Chg from Last Week||Estimated Location Count||Distributor|
|9/7/2018||God Bless the Broken Road||$2,500,000||67%||$6,300,000||68%||1,200||Freestyle Releasing|
|9/7/2018||The Nun||$39,000,000||$93,000,000||3,700||Warner Bros. / New Line|
|9/14/2018||The Predator (2018)||$30,000,000||$66,000,000||3,600||Fox|
|9/14/2018||A Simple Favor||$13,500,000||-4%||$38,600,000||-4%||3,000||Lionsgate|
|9/14/2018||Unbroken: Path to Redemption||$2,000,000||$4,900,000||1,300||Pure Flix|
|9/14/2018||White Boy Rick||$10,000,000||$32,000,000||2,700||Sony / Studio 8|
|9/21/2018||The House with a Clock In Its Walls||$24,000,000||$79,000,000||Universal|
|9/21/2018||Life Itself||n/a||n/a||Amazon Studios|
|9/28/2018||Hell Fest||$9,500,000||$22,000,000||Lionsgate / CBS Films|
|9/28/2018||Little Women (2018)||n/a||n/a||Pinnacle Peak|
|9/28/2018||Night School (2018)||$17,500,000||$55,000,000||Universal|
|10/5/2018||A Star Is Born||$44,000,000||47%||$150,000,000||7%||Warner Bros.|
|10/5/2018||Venom (2018)||$65,000,000||$135,000,000||Sony / Columbia|
|10/12/2018||Bad Times at the El Royale||$13,000,000||$40,000,000||Fox|
|10/12/2018||Goosebumps: Haunted Halloween||$14,000,000||$45,000,000||Sony / Columbia|
|10/19/2018||The Hate U Give||n/a||n/a||Fox|
|10/26/2018||Hunter Killer||$14,000,000||NEW||$41,000,000||NEW||Lionsgate / Summit|
|10/26/2018||Johnny English Strikes Again||$4,000,000||NEW||$8,750,000||NEW||Universal|
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