Long Range Tracking: ‘A Star Is Born’ & ‘Venom’ (Updated)

August 16 Update: Following a deeper dive into new data, we’re revisiting initial forecasts for Venom in a rare mid-week update. Check here for further analysis and revised forecasts on the upcoming release.

===

The fourth quarter of 2018 is poised for a strong start as this week’s report takes an early look at the prospects of two October 5 releases.

A Star Is Born
Opening Weekend Range: $25 – 35 million

Social media buzz is steadily growing for this remake thanks to strong trailer reception over the summer. The mega-star power of director/actor Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga could prove to be irresistible for audiences even beyond their fans. If award season contention follows, long box office legs wouldn’t be hard to develop — especially considering the renaissance of successful musicals in recent years. The breakout potential of this one is hard to ignore right now, putting current forecasts in bullish territory.

Venom
Opening Weekend Range: $30 – 50 million

Since this film has no connection to the current Spider-Man in Disney’s sprawling Marvel Cinematic Universe, its biggest asset will be its star — Tom Hardy — who is compiling an impressive list of opening weekend performances (his last three starring or co-starring wide releases each opened north of $39 million domestically). Venom, of course, is one of the most popular anti-heroes in comic book history, so long-time fans of the character will provide additional opening weekend ammo.

While Venom‘s social media conversation is on fire currently, the ratio of positive-to-negative comments is much lower than we’d like to see as many fans are concerned with news that the film underwent extensive re-shoots and will be rated PG-13 — eschewing the more mature and graphic elements of the character in favor of a teen-friendly rating. In an era where Deadpool and Logan have proven the validity of comic book characters being allowed to stay true to their R-rated roots, that provides some trepidation among fans — and, by extension, long-term playability — until we get an idea of what actual word of mouth will be like.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
8/15/2018 Crazy Rich Asians $14,500,000 12% $47,000,000 12% 3,200 Warner Bros.
8/17/2018 Alpha $7,000,000 -13% $20,000,000 -12% 2,500 Sony / Studio 8
8/17/2018 Mile 22 $18,000,000 6% $55,000,000 6% 3,400 STX
8/24/2018 A.X.L. $1,750,000 $4,400,000 1,700 Global Road
8/24/2018 The Happytime Murders $15,500,000 $40,500,000 2,800 STX
8/24/2018 Searching n/a n/a 2,000 Sony / Screen Gems
8/29/2018 Operation Finale $6,000,000 NEW $19,000,000 NEW MGM
8/31/2018 Kin $5,500,000 -8% $13,800,000 -8% Lionsgate / Summit
8/31/2018 Ya Veremos n/a n/a Pantelion
9/7/2018 God Bless the Broken Road n/a n/a Freestyle Releasing
9/7/2018 The Nun $40,000,000 $96,000,000 Warner Bros. / New Line
9/7/2018 Peppermint $12,000,000 $33,500,000 STX Entertainment
9/14/2018 The Predator (2018) $28,000,000 $65,000,000 Fox
9/14/2018 A Simple Favor $14,000,000 $40,000,000 Lionsgate
9/14/2018 Unbroken: Path to Redemption $2,000,000 $4,900,000 Pure Flix
9/14/2018 White Boy Rick $7,500,000 $24,000,000 Sony / Studio 8
9/21/2018 Fahrenheit 11/9 n/a n/a Briarcliff
9/21/2018 The House with a Clock In Its Walls $24,000,000 $79,000,000 Universal
9/21/2018 Life Itself n/a n/a Amazon Studios
9/28/2018 Hell Fest $9,500,000 $22,000,000 Lionsgate / CBS Films
9/28/2018 Little Women (2018) n/a n/a Pure Flix
9/28/2018 Night School (2018) $17,500,000 $55,000,000 Universal
9/28/2018 Smallfoot $23,000,000 $80,000,000 Warner Bros.
10/5/2018 A Star Is Born $30,000,000 NEW $117,000,000 NEW Warner Bros.
10/5/2018 Venom (2018) $40,000,000 NEW $85,000,000 NEW Sony / Columbia

Contact us for information on subscribing to Boxoffice’s complete suite of forecasting and data services.

Shawn Robbins

17 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Arek August 10, 2018

    I think Venom will earn 120mln

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Eugene A Lee August 13, 2018

      Not enough mass market appeal. Tbh

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Arek August 14, 2018

        I mean 120 DOM and maybe 280 Foregin budget is about 80 MLN and I think is enough to get some money to Sony.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Skyler Kwok August 15, 2018

          Well it all depends on if the movie is actually good or not. And from all the trailers we’ve been given and how Sony is changing so many things last minute, I don’t see this getting over 100 million if it gets bad word of mouth its first weekend and ends up making less money than predicted here. For Sony, this movie is basically a gamble for them, and right now I don’t see this making any money for them.

          Also, their budget isn’t exactly 80 million per say. That’s the cost to make the movie, and it could be even higher. You also have to take marketing costs into consideration, which is usually the same price and maybe even higher. And in order to turn an actual profit from the movie, you got to make double the total budget back, so if it’s around 200 million, then they’d have to break even at 350-400 million at least. So for them to make 280 million would be a miracle for them.

          Reply
    • Avatar
      Normandywells September 19, 2018

      Be Quiet-that’s stupid–it will hit about 60 million domestically first weekend-no more

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    Tommy4 August 10, 2018

    BO, are you on drugs? No way it’s gonna make just 85$ mln total with x2 multiplier, that’s absolutely incompetent tracking and very far from reality. What about Suicide Squad, which was basically in the same position with huge hype/trailer views/social media activity, extensive reshoots and forced PG-13?

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Skyler Kwok August 14, 2018

      You do realize that Justice League last year was predicted to open up to 150 million right? And then it went down to 115 million, and then later opened up to 94 million. That was because of the word of mouth about the movie being bad, and I can see this happening for the Venom movie too, since it looks terrible.

      Also, this is being made by Sony, the same studios who made the ASM series that nearly ruined the brand as a whole. So not many people trust Sony anymore when it comes to their Spider-man movies. And people know if this is even remotely successful, then there’s a chance that Sony will launch their own cinematic universe of Spider-man’s villains without Spider-man, which no one asked for and already sounds like a dumb idea.

      So people are actually banking on this to fail, so Sony might have to sell the rights back to Marvel this time and stop messing with the character. Which I don’t blame them for doing, and I also want the movie to fail as well to ensure that Sony doesn’t start their dumb universe that no one wanted.

      https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-justice-league-the-star-wonder/

      Reply
      • Avatar
        manofbronze August 15, 2018

        maybe wait and see. Homecoming was better than most of the MCU. It felt fresh to the MCU stale formula that suckers keep buying into,

        I cant stand the MCU fans and their “back to marvel bulls*it”

        Wanting something to fail is pretty petty. Did I mention I hate MCU fanboys?

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Skyler Kwok August 15, 2018

          Yeah, most of the MCU fanboys do tend to get toxic, even though I love the MCU too. I do understand it has problems but I enjoy it for what it is. I also wish DC would get its act together so I could enjoy both of them, and it seems Aquaman and Shazam are on the right track to fixing the DCEU.

          But yeah, many people don’t really care for Sony and their spiderman films anymore, now that he’s back in the MCU. But we’ll wait and see how the movie plays out once released. I was just trying to say how it could end up like Justice League for Sony

          Reply
  3. Avatar
    FONZ August 10, 2018

    85 million total domestic take on Venom??! Lol!!! Even the worst Marvel Movies, stil manage to make over 100 million domestically, and A Star is Born will tank at the box office. Whoever is predicting the totals for these films is clueless AF! They’ve been wrong on almost all of them. They also predicted that The Meg would only cross 37 million domestically, and now its on its way to a 30 million opening.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      sky August 15, 2018

      The Meg had a much higher marketing campaign, so it got more people to see it. Venom on the other hand, has been on a downward spiral since the beginning due to no Spider-man and this being made by Sony, the company who almost drove the character brand into the ground from the ASM series. Not saying it was bad, but it was definitely underwhelming. And not many people want to see this movie, since if this is even successful, Sony will launch their own cinematic universe around his villains and no one wants that really.

      And if there is even more bad word of mouth during the first weekend, it could make much less and lead it to be an even bigger flop

      Reply
  4. Avatar
    Matt August 10, 2018

    You guys are insane with your Crazy Rich Asian numbers – going to open to at least $25M – this movie will breakout beyond general moviegoers. This is an event for millions of people!

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    navtej singh August 10, 2018

    lmao at Crazy Rich Asians number

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    Delle August 11, 2018

    I’m going to assume you got Venom and A Star Is Born final domestic totals mixed up and you meant Venom will make $117m domestic.

    Reply
  7. Avatar
    Shrek August 12, 2018

    Come on! Crazy rich Asians is definitely opening more than 20 million atleast. Especially females are going to lap it up just like girls trip at this time last year. This number is way off.

    Reply
  8. Avatar
    Yogesh Khetani August 14, 2018

    Both are nice movies.

    Reply
  9. Avatar
    sky August 15, 2018

    The Meg had a much higher marketing campaign, so it got more people to see it. Venom on the other hand, has been on a downward spiral since the beginning due to no Spider-man and this being made by Sony, the company who almost drove the character brand into the ground from the ASM series. Not saying it was bad, but it was definitely underwhelming. And not many people want to see this movie, since if this is even successful, Sony will launch their own cinematic universe around his villains and no one wants that really.

    And if there is even more bad word of mouth during the first weekend, it could make much less and lead it to be an even bigger flop

    Reply

Leave reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *