Long Range Tracking: ‘A Star Is Born’ & ‘Venom’ (Updated)
August 16 Update: Following a deeper dive into new data, we’re revisiting initial forecasts for Venom in a rare mid-week update. Check here for further analysis and revised forecasts on the upcoming release.
The fourth quarter of 2018 is poised for a strong start as this week’s report takes an early look at the prospects of two October 5 releases.
A Star Is Born
Opening Weekend Range: $25 – 35 million
Social media buzz is steadily growing for this remake thanks to strong trailer reception over the summer. The mega-star power of director/actor Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga could prove to be irresistible for audiences even beyond their fans. If award season contention follows, long box office legs wouldn’t be hard to develop — especially considering the renaissance of successful musicals in recent years. The breakout potential of this one is hard to ignore right now, putting current forecasts in bullish territory.
Opening Weekend Range: $30 – 50 million
Since this film has no connection to the current Spider-Man in Disney’s sprawling Marvel Cinematic Universe, its biggest asset will be its star — Tom Hardy — who is compiling an impressive list of opening weekend performances (his last three starring or co-starring wide releases each opened north of $39 million domestically). Venom, of course, is one of the most popular anti-heroes in comic book history, so long-time fans of the character will provide additional opening weekend ammo.
While Venom‘s social media conversation is on fire currently, the ratio of positive-to-negative comments is much lower than we’d like to see as many fans are concerned with news that the film underwent extensive re-shoots and will be rated PG-13 — eschewing the more mature and graphic elements of the character in favor of a teen-friendly rating. In an era where Deadpool and Logan have proven the validity of comic book characters being allowed to stay true to their R-rated roots, that provides some trepidation among fans — and, by extension, long-term playability — until we get an idea of what actual word of mouth will be like.
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Opening||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total||% Chg from Last Week||Estimated Location Count||Distributor|
|8/15/2018||Crazy Rich Asians||$14,500,000||12%||$47,000,000||12%||3,200||Warner Bros.|
|8/17/2018||Alpha||$7,000,000||-13%||$20,000,000||-12%||2,500||Sony / Studio 8|
|8/24/2018||The Happytime Murders||$15,500,000||$40,500,000||2,800||STX|
|8/24/2018||Searching||n/a||n/a||2,000||Sony / Screen Gems|
|8/31/2018||Kin||$5,500,000||-8%||$13,800,000||-8%||Lionsgate / Summit|
|9/7/2018||God Bless the Broken Road||n/a||n/a||Freestyle Releasing|
|9/7/2018||The Nun||$40,000,000||$96,000,000||Warner Bros. / New Line|
|9/14/2018||The Predator (2018)||$28,000,000||$65,000,000||Fox|
|9/14/2018||A Simple Favor||$14,000,000||$40,000,000||Lionsgate|
|9/14/2018||Unbroken: Path to Redemption||$2,000,000||$4,900,000||Pure Flix|
|9/14/2018||White Boy Rick||$7,500,000||$24,000,000||Sony / Studio 8|
|9/21/2018||The House with a Clock In Its Walls||$24,000,000||$79,000,000||Universal|
|9/21/2018||Life Itself||n/a||n/a||Amazon Studios|
|9/28/2018||Hell Fest||$9,500,000||$22,000,000||Lionsgate / CBS Films|
|9/28/2018||Little Women (2018)||n/a||n/a||Pure Flix|
|9/28/2018||Night School (2018)||$17,500,000||$55,000,000||Universal|
|10/5/2018||A Star Is Born||$30,000,000||NEW||$117,000,000||NEW||Warner Bros.|
|10/5/2018||Venom (2018)||$40,000,000||NEW||$85,000,000||NEW||Sony / Columbia|
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