Long Range Tracking: Tim Burton’s Dumbo
This week’s report takes a look at the end of 2019’s first quarter with Disney’s anticipated live-action reimagining of another classic animated film slated to debut on March 29.
Opening Weekend Range: $45 – 65 million
- Tim Burton returns in the director’s chair for another adaptation of a popular children’s title following his successful efforts with Alice in Wonderland ($334.2 million domestic), Charlie and the Chocolate Factory ($206.5 million), and Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children ($87.2 million). His fan base (in tandem with fans of his collaborative composer Danny Elfman) should help boost opening weekend intrigue.
- Combined with a sense of nostalgia for the original animated film, an ensemble cast led by Colin Farrell, Danny DeVito, Michael Keaton, and Eva Green will aid appeal among parents.
- Disney’s box office streak with their more well-known classic properties is hard to argue with. Opening three weeks after Captain Marvel and a full month before Avengers: Endgame gives Dumbo plenty of breathing room to find a family audience in April.
- Early tracking shows interest scores in line with those of Mary Poppins Returns at the same point before release. Our Trailer Impact survey indicates 72 percent of responders are interested or definitely interested in Dumbo, compared 70 percent for Poppins two months out.
- Despite the studio’s average rate of success, Disney hasn’t been completely invincible at the box office when it comes to live action adaptations. Last year’s A Wrinkle In Time ($100.5 million) and 2016’s Alice Through the Looking Glass ($77 million) were viewed as under-performers relative to their budgets.
- With DC’s Shazam! opening one week later, there could be minor crossover for young audiences depending on reception for both films.
- As the third franchise film aiming for families and young ones since the start of February (LEGO Movie 2 and Dragon 3 being included), there could be less of a rush-out factor for those moviegoers.
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Release Tracking||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total Forecast||% Chg from Last Week||Estimated Location Count||Distributor|
|2/8/2019||Cold Pursuit||$12,000,000||$37,500,000||2,500||Lionsgate / Summit|
|2/8/2019||The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part||$55,000,000||$186,400,000||4,100||Warner Bros.|
|2/8/2019||The Prodigy||$5,750,000||5%||$13,000,000||8%||2,500||Orion Pictures|
|2/8/2019||What Men Want||$24,000,000||-4%||$63,000,000||2,800||Paramount|
|2/13/2019||Happy Death Day 2U||$20,000,000||$52,000,000||3,200||Universal|
|2/13/2019||Isn’t It Romantic||$15,000,000||$57,000,000||3,300||Warner Bros.|
|2/14/2019||Alita: Battle Angel||$16,000,000||3%||$45,000,000||2%||3,400||Fox|
|2/22/2019||Fighting with My Family||$8,000,000||NEW||$25,000,000||NEW||MGM|
|2/22/2019||How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World||$49,000,000||11%||$173,000,000||11%||Universal|
|3/1/2019||Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral||$27,000,000||$68,000,000||Lionsgate|
|3/8/2019||Captain Marvel||$160,000,000||$440,000,000||Disney / Marvel|
|3/15/2019||No Manches Frida 2||n/a||n/a||Lionsgate / Pantelion Films|
|3/15/2019||Five Feet Apart||$11,000,000||$37,000,000||Lionsgate|
Tracking and forecasts are subject to change each week as marketing, reviews, and other factors are taken into consideration.
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Alex Edghill contributed to this report