Long Range Tracking: Tim Burton’s Dumbo

This week’s report takes a look at the end of 2019’s first quarter with Disney’s anticipated live-action reimagining of another classic animated film slated to debut on March 29.

Dumbo
Opening Weekend Range: $45 – 65 million

PROS:

  • Tim Burton returns in the director’s chair for another adaptation of a popular children’s title following his successful efforts with Alice in Wonderland ($334.2 million domestic), Charlie and the Chocolate Factory ($206.5 million), and Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children ($87.2 million). His fan base (in tandem with fans of his collaborative composer Danny Elfman) should help boost opening weekend intrigue.
  • Combined with a sense of nostalgia for the original animated film, an ensemble cast led by Colin Farrell, Danny DeVito, Michael Keaton, and Eva Green will aid appeal among parents.
  • Disney’s box office streak with their more well-known classic properties is hard to argue with. Opening three weeks after Captain Marvel and a full month before Avengers: Endgame gives Dumbo plenty of breathing room to find a family audience in April.
  • Early tracking shows interest scores in line with those of Mary Poppins Returns at the same point before release. Our Trailer Impact survey indicates 72 percent of responders are interested or definitely interested in Dumbo, compared 70 percent for Poppins two months out.

CONS:

  • Despite the studio’s average rate of success, Disney hasn’t been completely invincible at the box office when it comes to live action adaptations. Last year’s A Wrinkle In Time ($100.5 million) and 2016’s Alice Through the Looking Glass ($77 million) were viewed as under-performers relative to their budgets.
  • With DC’s Shazam! opening one week later, there could be minor crossover for young audiences depending on reception for both films.
  • As the third franchise film aiming for families and young ones since the start of February (LEGO Movie 2 and Dragon 3 being included), there could be less of a rush-out factor for those moviegoers.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Release Tracking % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
2/8/2019 Cold Pursuit $12,000,000 $37,500,000 2,500 Lionsgate / Summit
2/8/2019 The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part $55,000,000 $186,400,000 4,100 Warner Bros.
2/8/2019 The Prodigy $5,750,000 5% $13,000,000 8% 2,500 Orion Pictures
2/8/2019 What Men Want $24,000,000 -4% $63,000,000 2,800 Paramount
2/13/2019 Happy Death Day 2U $20,000,000 $52,000,000 3,200 Universal
2/13/2019 Isn’t It Romantic $15,000,000 $57,000,000 3,300 Warner Bros.
2/14/2019 Alita: Battle Angel $16,000,000 3% $45,000,000 2% 3,400 Fox
2/22/2019 Fighting with My Family $8,000,000 NEW $25,000,000 NEW MGM
2/22/2019 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World $49,000,000 11% $173,000,000 11% Universal
3/1/2019 Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral $27,000,000 $68,000,000 Lionsgate
3/8/2019 Captain Marvel $160,000,000 $440,000,000 Disney / Marvel
3/15/2019 No Manches Frida 2 n/a n/a Lionsgate / Pantelion Films
3/15/2019 Five Feet Apart $11,000,000 $37,000,000 Lionsgate
3/15/2019 Wonder Park $8,000,000 $30,000,000 Paramount
3/22/2019 The Informer n/a n/a Aviron
3/22/2019 Us $42,000,000 $135,000,000 Universal
3/29/2019 Dumbo (2019) $59,000,000 NEW $175,000,000 NEW Disney

Tracking and forecasts are subject to change each week as marketing, reviews, and other factors are taken into consideration.

Contact us for information about subscribing to Boxoffice.com’s suite of forecasting and data services.

Alex Edghill contributed to this report

Shawn Robbins

10 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Michael Joseph February 01, 2019

    The question is whether or not Captain Marvel eats into this film’s grosses (i.e. what Black Panther did with A Wrinkle in Time last year).

    Reply
    • Avatar
      night walker February 04, 2019

      A Wrinkle in Time had bad reviews and is not nearly as well known or received as Dumbo, especially with Tim Burton at the Director’s chair Dumbo could have bad reviews, but I don’t think it will, and even with bad reviews it should still make more than a Wrinkle in time did by a sizable amount. Plus wile Captain Marvel will probably be huge it most likely be nearly as huge as Black Panther was, and even if it is, A Wrinkle in Time still made it to $100 million domestic so Dumbo should at least make it to $130-$150 million domestic.

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    Shakerxxoo February 02, 2019

    It’s going to be a great month for animation
    The lego movie 2 & How to train your dragon are getting great reviews
    The marketing is almost done for the lego movie but i still expect the numbers to rise a little for the dragons
    I think Universal will drop a super bowl spot to increase awareness & Fandango Saturday screening will help with word of mouth

    Reply
    • Avatar
      night walker February 02, 2019

      I think that the Lego movie 2, and how to train your dragon 3 will exceed tracking at least by a small margin. After February 2019 has a storm of huge movies. I think we will be looking at another record year at the domestic box office. despite the fact that the box office headliners see January’s smaller gross as a terrible thing.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Nite walker February 09, 2019

        I seem to be terribly wrong about the Lego movie 2 hopefully how to train your dragon 3 will be the first big movie in 2019 not to disappoint. Maybe it can still exceed tracking, but until I see a major box office surprise I’m going to play it safe on any movie outside of comic book adaptions. How to train your dragon 3 $55million opening $165 million opening. Now please surprise me and exceed this prediction.

        Reply
  3. Avatar
    night walker February 04, 2019

    I think dumbo will have a $65 million opening $200 million domestic total, $500-$550 million world wide.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Nite walker February 09, 2019

      I no longer think it will top $200 million domestics more between $150-$175 million sounds right.

      Reply
  4. Avatar
    jestie February 04, 2019

    Dumbo looks very generic.
    It will most likely disappoint.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Nite walker February 09, 2019

      It has Tim Burton so it will still likely do well, if it doesn’t do great.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Nite walker February 09, 2019

        Then again 2019 is starting to show very high weakness. We could see 2019 carried by the huge hits like Endgame, the Lion King, and Star Wars, with some other strong titles in the mix but a lot of disappointments.

        Reply

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