Long Range Tracking: ‘How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World’
The final report of 2018 takes an early look at the weekend of February 22, 2019 — currently slated with three wide releases. We’ll offer up forecasts on the other two at a later date, but here’s our first analysis on the weekend’s marquee opener.
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Opening Weekend Range: $40 – 50 million
- The franchise has proven very successful with two critically and commercially successful chapters in 2010 and 2014, earning a combined $395 million domestically.
- Opening two weeks after The LEGO Movie 2 should provide just enough breathing room for this to serve as a strong family-friendly winter tentpole, likely opening well along the lines of the studio’s own Kung Fu Panda 3 ($41.3 million in January 2016).
- The promise of a trilogy-capper helmed by returning director Dean DeBlois should bring back most fans of the series, especially the considerable adult segment of that audience.
- Early social media buzz and Trailer Impact metrics are very encouraging.
- If LEGO Movie 2‘s word of mouth proves comparable with its own direct predecessor, that may cut slightly into Dragon 3‘s potential.
- Similarly, Captain Marvel opens in Hidden World‘s third weekend and could leech some of the target younger audience.
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Release Tracking||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total Forecast||% Chg from Last Week||Estimated Location Count||Distributor|
|1/4/2019||Escape Room||$13,000,000||$32,000,000||2,700||Sony / Columbia|
|1/11/2019||A Dog’s Way Home||$12,000,000||$40,000,000||2,900||Sony / Columbia|
|1/11/2019||Perfect Strangers||n/a||n/a||n/a||Lionsgate / Pantelion Films|
|1/25/2019||The Kid Who Would Be King||$15,000,000||$50,000,000||Fox|
|1/25/2019||Untitled STX Action/Thriller||n/a||n/a||STX Entertainment|
|2/1/2019||Jacob’s Ladder||n/a||n/a||LD Entertainment|
|2/1/2019||Miss Bala||$10,000,000||$28,000,000||Sony / Columbia|
|2/8/2019||Cold Pursuit||$13,000,000||$40,000,000||Lionsgate / Summit|
|2/8/2019||The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part||$60,000,000||$213,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|2/8/2019||The Prodigy||n/a||n/a||Orion Pictures|
|2/8/2019||What Men Want||$25,000,000||$63,000,000||Paramount|
|2/13/2019||Isn’t It Romantic||$14,000,000||$54,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|2/14/2019||Alita: Battle Angel||$14,500,000||$41,000,000||Fox|
|2/14/2019||Fighting with My Family||n/a||n/a||MGM|
|2/14/2019||Happy Death Day 2U||$24,000,000||$52,000,000||Universal|
|2/22/2019||How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World||$44,000,000||NEW||$155,000,000||NEW||Universal|
|2/22/2019||The Turning||n/a||n/a||Universal / Amblin|
Tracking and forecasts are subject to change each week as marketing, reviews, and other factors are taken into consideration.
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