Marvel’s ‘Black Panther’ Tracking Ahead of ‘Deadpool’ for Possible February Box Office Record

The first traditional tracking surveys for Marvel’s Black Panther were released this morning, and early indicators suggest the film could have a new February record in its sights when it debuts in three weeks. Based on our internal analysis, the 18th chapter of the Marvel Cinematic Universe is currently trending to clear $130-135 million over opening weekend, while other third-party observers are calling for a more cautious (but still excellent) $100-120 million.

February’s reigning box office opening champ is Fox’s Deadpool, which bowed to $132.4 million over the three-day portion of President’s Day weekend two years ago (when it also had the benefit of Valentine’s Day landing on Sunday). While that film’s highly unique social media prowess remains the benchmark for origin stories in the genre, Black Panther is tracking ahead of it across the board in terms of unaided awareness, total awareness, definite interest, and first choice among surveyed audiences.

Deadpool went on to post a stellar $152.2 million over the course of its four-day holiday weekend bow, and $363 million domestically by the end of its run. The latest Marvel blockbuster-in-waiting is also set to release during the President’s Day frame.

The favorable comparisons don’t end there: Black Panther‘s unaided awareness is scoring triple that of Suicide Squad and Doctor Strange, and more than four times higher than Ant-Man at the same point before release. Total awareness and definite interest are similar to that of Suicide, while first choice selections stand 11 percent ahead of the DC film, nearly double those of Doctor Strange, and more than triple Ant-Man.

On the Twitter front, Black Panther‘s recent daily tweet volumes have been comparable to Suicide Squad and well ahead of Doctor Strange in the same pre-release windows.

For reference, Suicide Squad opened to $133.7 million in early August 2016, while fellow MCU origin story pics Doctor Strange and Ant-Man started with $85.1 million and $57.2 million, respectively.

Today’s early tracking further backs up our recent forecast bumps for the film, which came in the wake of Fandango’s outstanding pre-sales report. The company had also previously announced a customer survey in which Panther ranked as the second most anticipated film of 2018 — only trailing a fellow MCU title, Avengers: Infinity War.

Stay tuned to our weekly Long Range Forecast reports for continued updates on Black Panther and other upcoming releases.

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Shawn Robbins

10 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Paul Bleeker January 26, 2018

    There is no way Black Panther is going to beat Deadpool!

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Shellyman January 29, 2018

      Um, yes it will… Black Panther has a upper advantage because it’s PG-13, so it has more wider audience.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Raheem January 30, 2018

      Dude It’s going to happen

      Reply
    • Avatar
      mike March 26, 2018

      haha. look at your comment now.. damn

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    Orlando January 26, 2018

    It’s definitely begin to look more and more like “Black Panther” has a shot at breaking “Deadpool’s” February opening weekend box office record, everything is pointing up for BP so far so we’ll see. I think reviews and word of mouth will be the final say on how high BP could potentially go, if both reviews and word of mouth turn out to be great I believe Black Panther’s opening weekend and overall domestic grosses could soar even higher than projections are currently saying. Right now i’m thinking 120-130 million opening weekend but it has the potential and opportunity to open quite a bit higher than that.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Glen January 27, 2018

    The Black Panther new trailer is one of the best trailers I have ever seen. If the movie is as good as the trailer, all bets are off! Cannot wait!

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Revan Isra Paris January 30, 2018

    Does anyone think Black Panther has a chance at crossing a billion?

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Fran January 31, 2018

      No way. It’ll probably do 750-800, which is good.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Delfra February 04, 2018

        I thought the way a month ago, but not today at this current time. Right now I see Black Panther reaching 800-850 million without question, but I could see it going higher than that and making a strong run at 1 billion. People like you are underestimating what this fil could gross overseas, you’re just thinking a black character no way but you forget that movie audience all over the globe have seen Black Panther already in “Civil War” and you’re also failing to recognize that the MCU is a very strong brand overseas. GOTG, Ant-Man and Doctor Strange all did excellent numbers overseas without being previously introduced in the MCU. Those 3 films made 440, 340 and 440 million overseas and I definitely see BP making more than that overseas without question.

        Reply
  5. Avatar
    mike March 26, 2018

    haha. look at your comment now.. damn

    Reply

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