Studio 5-Day Weekend Estimates: ‘Aquaman’ Surfaces w/ $101M; ‘Mary Poppins’ Sings w/ $41.1M; ‘Bumblebee’ Buzzes to $34.2M

Christmas Day openers 'Holmes & Watson' and 'Vice' debut w/ $6.42M and $4.78M, respectively

Thursday Update: The day after Christmas saw several new and holdover titles continue strong, with Aquaman bringing in an estimated $16.9 million and Mary Poppins Returns singing and dancing its way to an estimated $10.9 million. Below you can find both daily estimates/actuals and updated cumes for the major titles in release.

  • Aquaman: $16.9M Wednesday, $122.6M domestic total [estimate]
  • Mary Poppins Returns: $10.9M Wednesday, $60.8M domestic total [actual]
  • Bumblebee: $6.27M Wednesday, $40.5M domestic total [actual]
  • Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse: $5.9M Wednesday, $79.6M domestic total [estimate]
  • The Mule: $3.51M Wednesday, $45.8M domestic total [estimate]
  • Holmes & Watson: $3.5M Wednesday, $9.9M domestic total [estimate]
  • Vice: $2.86M Wednesday, $7.6M domestic total [actual]
  • Second Act: $2.05M Wednesday, $12.6M domestic total [estimate]
  • Ralph Breaks the Internet: $1.94M Wednesday, $167M domestic total [actual]
  • Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch: $1.73M Wednesday, $259.6M domestic total [actual]
  • Mary Queen of Scots: $787K Wednesday, $56.M domestic total [actual]
  • The Favourite: $738K Wednesday, $12.1M domestic total [actual]
  • Welcome to Marwen: $731K Wednesday, $4.8M domestic total [actual]

Wednesday Update: The biggest moviegoing day of the year saw a number of new releases hit theaters, including Sony’s Holmes & Watson, Annapurna’s Vice, and, in limited release, Focus Features’ On the Basis of Sex and Annapurna’s Destroyer. You can find opening-day estimates for each of those titles below, as well as Christmas Day and 5-day weekend estimates (and some actuals) for holdovers.

Christmas Day openers:

  • Holmes & Watson with $6.42M [estimate]
  • Vice with $4.78M [actual]
  • On the Basis of Sex with $466K (33 theaters, $14.1K per-screen average) [actual]
  • Destroyer with $30.7K (3 theaters, $10.2K per-screen average) [actual]

Holdovers:

  • Aquaman with $22.06M; $101M 5-Day Weekend [estimate]
  • Mary Poppins Returns with $11.4M; $41.1M 5-Day Weekend [actual]
  • Bumblebee with $8.88M; $34.2M 5-Day Weekend [actual]
  • Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse with $5.63M; $25.6M 5-Day Weekend [estimate]
  • The Mule with $4.90M; $16.6M 5-Day Weekend [estimate]
  • Second Act with $3.07M; $10.5M 5-Day Weekend [estimate]
  • Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch with $2.08M; $12.9M 5-Day Weekend [actual]
  • Ralph Breaks the Internet with $1.68M; $7.5M 5-Day Weekend [actual]
  • Welcome to Marwen with $1.31M; $4.1M 5-Day Weekend [actual]
  • The Favourite with $885K; $3.3M 5-Day Weekend [actual]
  • Mary Queen of Scots $872K; $3.5M 5-Day Weekend [actual]

Monday Update: With some studios providing actuals today, with others providing merely revised estimates on account of the holiday, current numbers include:

  • Aquaman with $67.4M [new estimate]
  • Mary Poppins Returns with $23.5M [actual]
  • Bumblebee with $21.6M [new estimate]
  • Second Act with $6.4M [new estimate]
  • Welcome to Marwen with $2.3M [actual]

Sunday Update: With a slew of new releases targeting every possible audience over Christmas weekend, Warner Bros.’ Aquaman predictably swam to the top with an estimated $67.4 million (including Thursday night previews). Meanwhile, Mary Poppins Returns and Bumblebee also had strong starts, while the Jennifer Lopez vehicle Second Act proved to be a healthy counter-programmer. At the other end of the spectrum, the Steve Carell drama Welcome to Marwen was essentially dead on arrival. Below are three-day grosses, with updates to come on Monday and Tuesday as Christmas Eve and Christmas Day results roll in.

Debuting on over 4,100 screens, Aquaman‘s opening gross finished in roughly the same superhero ballpark as films like this year’s Ant-Man and the Wasp ($75.8 million debut) and 2016’s X-Men: Apocalypse ($65.7 million), falling essentially in line with pre-release expectations. The film benefitted from a smart marketing campaign that played up the film’s lighter, more Marvel-esque tone, better-than-average reviews for a DCEU title, and mainly positive word-of-mouth leading up to release. The solid start in North America is only icing on the cake at this point, with the film having already racked up an incredible overseas haul (particularly in China) prior to hitting our shores. The opening is impressive when you consider that Aquaman isn’t exactly one of DC’s A-grade superheroes – he has, in fact, been openly mocked for years in some quarters – giving the film a tougher hill to climb with viewers than, say, Batman v. Superman, Justice League, or even Wonder Woman. Factoring in $4.7 million from the film’s special Amazon Prime screenings last Saturday and again on Wednesday, Aquaman‘s current total stands at $72.1 million through Sunday.

Coming in second, Disney’s Mary Poppins Returns enjoyed a reasonably healthy debut with an estimated $22.2 million, which is somewhat below expectations but not necessarily a disappointment given its older-skewing fanbase (nearly half the opening-weekend audience was over the age of 35), which tends not to rush out to see films on opening weekend. With two weeks of holiday play ahead, a positive early audience reaction (it has an “A-” Cinemascore), and the potential for continued strong returns as the film garners further awards-season attention (it’s already up for four Golden Globes, including Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy), it would appear to be primed for a leggy performance well into 2019. Indeed, look no further than last year’s The Greatest Showman, 2016’s La La Land, and 2014’s Into the Woods for historical case studies in the staying power of splashy, end-of-the-year musicals.

Returns got an early jump on the weekend by opening on Wednesday, bringing its total to $31 million over the five-day period. Notably, the film helped push Disney to a new record, which you can read more about here.

In third place, Paramount’s Bumblebee also got off to a good start with an estimated $21 million, aided by the strongest reviews of the Transformers live-action franchise yet (it’s at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes). While that’s by far the lowest opening of any Transformers live-action movie yet (the previous low was last year’s Transformers: The Last Knight with $44.6 million), it’s not exactly a fair comparison, as Bumblebee is the first of the films to debut outside the summer frame, not to mention the first to aim for a more family-friendly audience. It’s also up against much stiffer competition than usual for the franchise, debuting opposite such heavy hitters as Aquaman and Mary Poppins Returns. Luckily, with such a positive response from critics, an “A-” Cinemascore, and kids out of school for the holidays, its prospects moving forward look relatively bright.

Swinging into fourth is Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, which followed up its impressive $35.3 million opening last weekend with an estimated $16.7 million, bringing its cume to $64.8 million after ten days of release. That’s a drop of 52% from its debut, which isn’t bad considering the plethora of competitors entering the marketplace this weekend including Aquaman and Bumblebee.

Fifth place went to The Mule, which dipped 46% to an estimated $9.3 million, bringing its ten-day total to $35 million. The Clint Eastwood drama had no real direct competitors in the crop of new releases, giving it a lane more or less to itself.

In sixth place, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch took advantage of the final pre-Christmas frame with an estimated $8.1 million, raising the cume for the Universal animated blockbuster to $253.2 million after seven weeks of release.

Newcomer Second Act debuted in seventh place with an estimated $6.5 million. That’s a decent start for the Jennifer Lopez comedy, which boasts a reported budget of $16 million. The STX release served as a counter-programmer in the midst of the weekend’s tentpole releases and more or less succeeded in that goal, despite decidedly lackluster reviews (its Rotten Tomatoes rating is 42%). This is Lopez’s first wide live-action release since 2015’s The Boy Next Door ($14.9 million opening, $35.4 million total) and her first comedic starring vehicle since 2012’s What to Expect When You’re Expecting ($10.5 million opening, $41.1 million total). Notably, women made up 70% of the opening-weekend audience. (You can read our interview with Second Act director Peter Segal here.)

Ralph Breaks the Internet finished in eighth with an estimated $4.6 million, bringing the domestic total for the Disney release to $162.1 million after five weeks. That puts it just slightly ahead of Wreck-It Ralph at the same point in its run.

In ninth, Universal’s Welcome to Marwen brought in an estimated $2.36 million, a disappointing debut that ranks as the lowest-grossing wide opener of both Steve Carell and Robert Zemeckis’s careers. Indeed, the actor and filmmaker’s combined starpower couldn’t overcome limited hype, the sheer avalanche of big-name competition this weekend, and largely-negative reviews (the film’s Rotten Tomatoes rating is just 25%). Adding to the film’s troubles, it received the lowest CinemaScore of any new wide release this weekend, with opening day audiences grading it a “B-“.

Rounding out the Top 10 was Focus Features’ Mary Queen of Scots, which brought in an estimated $2.24 million from 795 locations. The film’s total now stands at $3.5 million in North America after three weeks.

Expanding to 790 screens was Fox Searchlight’s The Favourite, which brought in an estimated $2.06 million from 790 locations. The total for the critically-acclaimed film now stands at $10.08 million after five weeks.

Overseas Update: 

Aquaman took in an estimated $91.3 million overseas this weekend, bringing the film’s international total to an incredible $410.7 million and its global tally to $482.8 million. (You can read more about the film’s international performance here.)

Mary Poppins Returns brought in an estimated $20.3 million overseas, bringing its global debut to $42.5 million and its worldwide running total to $51.3 million since Wednesday.

Bumblebee opened to $31.1 million in 38 markets, including $4.9 million each in both Russia and Indonesia and $3.9 million in Mexico. The film is slated to open in China on January 4.

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse grossed an estimated $38 million overseas this weekend including $26.1 million in China, making it the No. 1 film in the country and the best foreign animated opening of 2018 there. That brings the film’s international tally to $64.8 million.

Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch crossed the $400 million mark globally this weekend with an estimated $23.7 million overseas. Its worldwide cume now stands at $422.5 million.


Sunday’s Studio Weekend Estimates (Domestic)

FRI, DEC. 21 – SUN, DEC. 23

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Aquaman $68,000,000 4,125 $16,485 $72,700,000 2 Warner Bros.
2 Mary Poppins Returns $23,523,121 4,090 $5,751 $32,337,792 1 Disney
3 Bumblebee $21,654,047 3,550 $6,100 $21,654,047 1 Paramount Pictures
4 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse $16,635,000 -53% 3,813 0 $4,363 $64,735,000 2 Sony / Columbia
5 The Mule $9,500,000 -46% 2,656 68 $3,577 $35,203,465 2 Warner Bros.
6 Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch $8,458,030 -28% 2,780 -979 $3,042 $253,498,005 7 Universal
7 Second Act $6,480,000 2,607 $2,486 $6,480,000 2 STX Entertainment
8 Ralph Breaks the Internet $4,702,425 -49% 2,495 -1080 $1,885 $162,197,355 5 Disney
9 Welcome to Marwen $2,354,205 1,911 $1,232 $2,354,205 1 Universal Pictures
10 Bohemian Rhapsody $1,961,208 -55% 1,168 -1045 $1,679 $184,793,006 8 20th Century Fox
11 Mortal Engines $1,751,605 -77% 3,103 0 $564 $12,016,565 2 Universal
12 Creed II $1,546,782 -71% 1,127 -1980 $1,372 $108,733,399 5 MGM / Warner Bros
13 Once Upon A Deadpool $800,213 -70% 1,428 -138 $560 $5,764,470 2 20th Century Fox

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Mary Queen of Scots $2,277,820 226% 795 729 $2,865 $3,581,575 3 Focus Features
2 The Favourite $2,085,123 -20% 790 349 $2,639 $10,112,263 5 Fox Searchlight
3 Green Book $1,388,905 -50% 732 -483 $1,897 $27,512,876 6 Universal Pictures
4 Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald $902,000 -76% 682 -1924 $1,323 $154,494,713 6 Warner Bros.
5 Instant Family $648,695 -83% 744 -2116 $872 $62,490,761 6 Paramount Pictures
6 Ben Is Back $398,934 182% 162 133 $2,463 $718,738 3 Roadside Attractions / LD Entertainment / Lionsgate
7 A Star is Born $345,000 -67% 262 -580 $1,317 $200,066,727 12 Warner Bros.
8 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms $205,819 -64% 241 -403 $854 $54,164,249 8 Walt Disney Pictures
9 Widows $134,008 -89% 149 -1079 $899 $41,600,017 6 20th Century Fox
10 Robin Hood $90,000 -93% 230 -1490 $391 $30,409,419 5 Lionsgate / Summit

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Shoplifters $163,788 44% 54 11 $3,033 $795,064 5 Magnolia Pictures
2 If Beale Street Could Talk $109,264 -51% 5 1 $21,853 $422,412 2 Annapurna
3 At Eternity’s Gate $93,783 -51% 83 -95 $1,130 $1,676,446 6 CBS Films
4 Cold War $54,353 3 $18,118 $54,353 1 Amazon Studios
5 Vox Lux $47,616 -80% 75 -250 $635 $654,734 3 Neon
6 Swing Kids $43,952 15 $2,930 $43,952 1 Well Go USA Entertainment
7 Airpocalypse $35,363 21 $1,684 $35,363 1 China Lion Film
8 Kedarnath $26,200 -86% 15 -84 $1,747 $855,581 3 PackYourBag Films
9 Night School $25,240 -52% 61 -36 $414 $77,236,095 13 Universal
10 Anna And The Apocalypse $24,488 -82% 61 -77 $401 $518,365 4 Orion Pictures
11 Capernaum $23,881 -4% 7 4 $3,412 $62,438 2 Sony Pictures Classics
12 Boy Erased $21,755 -75% 47 -126 $463 $6,727,612 8 Focus Features
13 The Hate U Give $17,583 -73% 48 -82 $366 $29,623,503 12 20th Century Fox
14 First Man $13,530 -56% 33 -39 $410 $44,873,710 11 Universal
15 The House With A Clock In Its Walls $10,665 -66% 53 -43 $201 $68,497,530 14 Universal Pictures
16 Burning $10,330 -40% 10 -7 $1,033 $562,133 9 Well Go USA Entertainment
17 Beautiful Boy $10,001 -71% 25 -63 $400 $7,558,908 11 Amazon
18 A Cool Fish $7,818 -68% 3 -10 $2,606 $540,752 6 China Lion Film
19 Maria By Callas $7,367 -76% 16 -46 $460 $1,198,933 8 Sony Pictures Classics
20 Halloween (2018) $6,850 -69% 29 -39 $236 $159,319,050 10 Universal Pictures
21 The House That Jack Built $5,931 -83% 13 -19 $456 $224,922 4 IFC Films
22 The Wife $3,952 -82% 5 -62 $790 $8,192,932 19 Sony Pictures Classics
23 A Private War $2,837 -81% 6 -44 $473 $1,612,905 8 Aviron Pictures
24 Mid90s $2,309 -59% 5 -11 $462 $7,362,439 10 A24
25 Indivisible $2,129 -41% 17 3 $125 $3,504,124 9 Pure Flix
26 Swimming with Men $1,695 -17% 7 0 $242 $22,166 3 IFC Films
27 Wildlife $1,674 -77% 8 -15 $209 $999,329 10 IFC Films
28 Becoming Astrid $771 -85% 3 -10 $257 $69,937 5 Music Box Films
29 Divide and Conquer: The Story of Roger Ailes $750 -45% 2 -3 $375 $35,769 3 Magnolia Pictures
30 Tea With the Dames $694 -67% 2 -6 $347 $861,801 14 IFC Films
31 The Quake $557 -83% 2 -5 $279 $5,993 2 Magnolia Pictures
32 Tyrel $404 -53% 2 -1 $202 $11,322 3 Magnolia Pictures

 

Chris Eggertsen

2 Comments

  1. Avatar
    RussVB December 23, 2018

    As always, the daily numbers thru Jan 1 will be very interesting.
    Last time with this calendar config, 2012, had big openers on Dec 25 — this year, not so much.
    So VERY big multipliers for everything now playing, excluding the pitiful Mortal Engines and Marwen.

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Mr. Aqualad Poppins-Bee December 24, 2018

    Your total amount is off for Aquaman, and you are not including them Amazon and Wednesday previews. With that, Aquaman is at 72.1 through Sunday evening.

    Reply

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