Studio Weekend Estimates: ‘Moana’ ($28.3M) & ‘Fantastic Beasts’ ($18.5M) Repeat On Top; ‘Incarnate’ Debuts In 9th w/ $2.6M; ‘Arrival’ Has Second-Best Post-Thanksgiving Hold Of Past Decade

Disney’s Moana rode the waves to first place for the second consecutive weekend with an estimated $28.37 million. The animated musical, which led in the previous Thanksgiving weekend frame as well, dropped an estimated 49.9 percent. It’s now earned $119.88 million total through 12 days, which is 24.1 percent above the $96.57 million earned by Tangled through the same point, though 10.7 percent behind the $134.25 million earned by Frozen through 12 days of wide release. It’s a possibility that Moana could three-peat next weekend too, depending on how much the top new release Office Christmas Party earns.

[Read our exclusive feature article including an interview with the directors of Moana here.]

Warner Bros.’ Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them took second place for the second consecutive frame with an estimated $18.54 million, after debuting on top two weekends back. The fantasy Harry Potter spinoff dropped 58.9 percent, a steep drop especially relative to its previous 39.4 percent second-weekend decline on the Thanksgiving weekend, when most films experience mild declines. It’s now earned $183.50 million through 17 days, which is 3.8 percent lower than even the lowest of the eight Potter films on that metric: 2004’s Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban had earned an inflation-adjusted $190.92 million through 17 days.

Paramount’s Arrival came in a perhaps-surprising third place, considering some were projecting it to come in as low as fifth place behind Allied and Doctor StrangeArrival posted a 36.3 percent decline, the lowest of any film in the top 10. That was true last weekend as well, when its stunning 5.6 percent decline was also by far the lowest of any film in the top 10. Impressively, Arrival also notches the second-best hold for any film during the post-Thanksgiving weekend in the past 15 years, behind only Hugo‘s 33.5 percent decline in the post-Thanksgiving weekend of 2011. So clearly, the positive word of mouth keeps propelling Arrival forward, giving it a $73.07 million total through four weekends. Eventually it may achieve one of the highest cumulative-to-opening ratios of the year when it’s all said and done.

Paramount’s Allied took fourth place with an estimated $7.05 million weekend, down 44.5 percent, for $28.92 million total through 12 days. Disney’s Doctor Strange rounded out the top five with an estimated $6.48 million, down 52.8 percent, for $215.30 million total through five weekends.

The sole new wide release film this weekend was Incarnate, from High Top Releasing and BH Tilt, which debuted in ninth place with an estimated $2.60 million. The horror film starring Aaron Eckhart was released and marketed under a never-before-tested model, an intended middle ground between traditional wide theatrical release and video-on-demand (VOD). The movie was released in 1,737 theaters — on the lower end for a national release — at locations historically frequented by die-hard horror fans, with a low-budget marketing campaign totalling in the single millions. The studio claimed they would consider it a success if the film opened in the $4-5 million range. Even under those expectations, though, the film only achieved a little more than half of that hoped-for range.

Incarnate started with an estimated $915 thousand on Friday, improved an estimated 19.1 percent on Saturday to $1.09 million, and is projected to decline 40.0 percent on Sunday to $654 thousand. This places its opening weekend to Friday ratio at an estimated 2.84 to 1.

Limited Release:

Roadside Attractions’ Manchester by the Sea almost doubled its weekend gross with an estimated $2.36 million weekend. That ranks just outside the top 10 in 11th place, despite playing on a mere 156 screens nationally, at least 1,500 screens less than any film in the top 10. The awards frontrunner drama starring Casey Affleck and Michelle Williams has now earned $4.42 million total through three weekends.

Fox Searchlight’s Jackie, the drama starring Natalie Portman about First Lady Jackie Kennedy in the days after the John F. Kennedy assassination, opened to an estimated $275 thousand on five screens, for a $55 thousand per-screen average. That figure is impressive but not jaw-dropping for an awards contender.

Fellow awards contender Lion from Weinstein Company declined only 2.5 percent to an estimated $120 thousand on seven screens, for $279 thousand through two weekends.

EuropaCorps’ legal drama/thriller Miss Sloane made an estimated $44 thousand, down 26.4 percent, on four screens in its second weekend. Its $11 thousand per-screen average is decent but doesn’t bode particularly well for its expanded nationwide release this upcoming weekend.

Overseas Update:

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them led the overseas box office for the third consecutive frame with a $60.4 million overseas weekend, down 54.4 percent, in 67 markets. The film has now earned a $424.4 million overseas and $607.9 million global total. Notable grosses to date include China with $72.5 million (including a $15.5 million weekend), the United Kingdom with $47.1 million, South Korea with $30.1 million, Japan with $28.6 million, and Germany with $23.7 million.

Moana also held up well with an estimated $32.0 million overseas weekend, up 96.3 percent, thanks in large part to playing in 30 markets this weekend instead of 12 last weekend. Notable grosses to date include $21.3 million in China, $6.4 million in France, and $5.1 million in Russia.

Studio Weekend Estimates for Friday, December 2 – Sunday, December 4, 2016:

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Moana $28,373,000 -50% 3,875 0 $7,322 $119,888,330 2 Disney
2 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them $18,545,000 -59% 3,988 -156 $4,650 $183,507,403 3 Warner Bros.
3 Arrival $7,300,000 -36% 2,915 473 $2,504 $73,078,514 4 Paramount
4 Allied $7,050,000 -44% 3,160 0 $2,231 $28,927,432 2 Paramount
5 Doctor Strange $6,486,000 -53% 2,935 -73 $2,210 $215,309,177 5 Disney
6 Trolls $4,600,000 -57% 3,156 -166 $1,458 $141,371,445 5 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
7 Hacksaw Ridge $3,400,000 -38% 2,494 162 $1,363 $57,264,956 5 Lionsgate
8 Bad Santa 2 $3,288,699 -47% 1,537 -1383 $2,140 $14,289,742 2 Broad Green Pictures
9 Incarnate $2,600,000 1,737 $1,497 $2,600,000 1 High Top / BH Tilt
10 Almost Christmas $2,500,000 -56% 1,556 -213 $1,607 $38,147,150 4 Universal
11 The Edge of Seventeen $1,660,000 -44% 1,608 -337 $1,032 $12,768,490 3 STX Entertainment
12 Rules Don’t Apply $555,000 -65% 2,386 4 $233 $3,322,655 2 20th Century Fox

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Manchester By the Sea $2,363,500 93% 156 108 $15,151 $4,423,443 3 Roadside / Amazon
2 Loving $997,000 -41% 446 25 $2,235 $5,592,166 5 Focus
3 Moonlight (2016) $915,750 -25% 574 -44 $1,595 $9,896,106 7 A24
4 The Accountant $765,000 -27% 608 52 $1,258 $84,260,470 8 Warner Bros.
5 Nocturnal Animals $686,095 -18% 127 0 $5,402 $2,705,383 3 Focus
6 Believe (2016) $602,519 639 $943 $602,519 1 Freestyle Releasing
7 Bleed for This $289,287 -69% 649 -900 $446 $4,841,477 3 Open Road
8 Jack Reacher: Never Go Back $225,000 -38% 298 -47 $755 $57,759,104 7 Paramount
9 Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween $136,000 -58% 235 -104 $579 $73,000,754 7 Lionsgate
10 The Girl on the Train (2016) $127,280 -42% 177 -10 $719 $75,081,395 9 Universal
11 Deepwater Horizon $115,000 -38% 166 -21 $693 $61,288,034 10 Lionsgate / Summit
12 The Secret Life of Pets $108,320 -52% 189 -20 $573 $368,015,345 22 Universal
13 Shut In $65,000 -71% 121 -156 $537 $6,803,233 4 EuropaCorp Films

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Jackie $275,000 5 $55,000 $275,000 1 Fox Searchlight
2 The Eagle Huntress $213,442 -19% 81 17 $2,635 $1,198,956 5 Sony Pictures Classics
3 Lion $120,234 -3% 7 3 $17,176 $279,382 2 Weinstein Company
4 Elle (2016) $93,795 -20% 32 -4 $2,931 $548,604 4 Sony Pictures Classics
5 A Man Called Ove $57,819 -53% 73 -15 $792 $3,141,717 10 Music Box Films
6 Miss Sloane $44,000 -26% 4 1 $11,000 $123,036 2 EuropaCorp
7 Pete’s Dragon (2016) $34,000 -67% 86 -41 $395 $76,204,393 17 Disney
8 Things To Come $33,090 3 $11,030 $33,090 1 IFC Films
9 Seasons $17,560 -35% 20 7 $878 $58,697 2 Music Box Films
10 Queen of Katwe $15,000 -43% 27 -3 $556 $8,768,558 11 Disney
11 Finding Dory $9,000 -79% 34 -44 $265 $486,293,573 25 Disney
12 Best Worst Thing That Ever Could Have Happened $8,086 -53% 3 0 $2,695 $70,890 3 Abramorama
13 Daughters of the Dust (2016 re-release) $7,232 4 $1,808 $7,232 3 Cohen Media Group
14 Harry & Snowman $5,000 -63% 7 -5 $714 $514,252 10 FilmRise
Jesse Rifkin

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